AFC West preview: Chargers clear fave to win division
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
One team ticked off its best defensive player by having the gall to draft someone at his position.
Another team fired a coaching legend and replaced him with a 32-year-old who has gotten everyone angry.
Yet another said good-bye to its angry Hall of Fame tight end.
And we haven’t even gotten to Al Davis yet.
Welcome to the AFC West, where turmoil and mediocrity are held in high esteem and a .500 record might get you into the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected win total: 6
Prediction: Under (-110)
All eyes will be on Matt Cassel, and it will probably be mid-season, or even next season, before the Chiefs know if they got a legit franchise quarterback or merely someone who overachieved with great receivers and a veteran offensive line last season in New England.
Some think Cassel may eventually become KC’s best QB since Len Dawson, but no one with that opinion paid much attention to last year’s offensive line. The Chiefs went defense first in the draft, so the offensive line will be pretty much patched together again, and that means Cassel will go down early, often and hard. Maybe new coach Todd Haley can resurrect the movable pocket offense that Hank Stram implemented when he had Dawson in the 1960s.
This is actually sets up pretty well for Haley, who greased the Cardinals’ powerful offense last year. The Chiefs played a ton of rookies last season, as evidenced by their 2-14 record, and those guys should be somewhat improved even absent star tight end Tony Gonzalez (traded to Atlanta). Perpetually angry Larry Johnson somehow managed 4.5 yards a carry last season between accusations of assaulting women at Kansas City nightspots. Who knew KC even had nightspots?
Surprising stat: The Chiefs averaged more than 21 points a game after Tyler Thigpen took over at quarterback in Week 8. In games Thigpen didn’t start, KC averaged 10 points a game.
Denver Broncos
Projected win total: 7
Prediction: Under (-120)
Josh McDaniels, replacing Mike Shanahan, must feel like a guy who opens a bar on a beach in Indonesia the day before the tsunami hits.
He gets a dream job and starts trying to improve the team, then his franchise quarterback goes diva on him and shoots his way out of town. Not to be undone, his best receiver, Brandon Marshall, decides he too wants to be part of the team’s massive roster overhaul and demands both a trade and more money, though not in that order.
Welcome to Mile High, Josh. Give the Broncos credit, though. The team’s owner, Pat Bowlen, has stood behind the new coach as one whack-job player after another bellies up to the bar and makes demands.
The offense, led by incoming QB Kyle Orton, better be decent, because the defense will have its share of problems this season as it moves to a 3-4. Champ Bailey is still lights-out at one corner, but the team raised some eyebrows when it cut CB Dre Bly in a salary dump.
Denver better get things in order quickly – the Broncos open with three turkeys (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland) – before embarking on one of the most difficult five-game stretches in NFL history (Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh).
Surprising stat: In the season-crushing 30-23 December loss to Buffalo at home, the Bronco defense gave up scores on five straight Bills possessions.
Oakland Raiders
Projected win total: 6
Prediction: Over (-120)
It’s easy to make fun of Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders. So let’s do it.
Any team that finds a way to lose 72 games in a six-year period has to have issues beyond a micro-managing owner who may or may not think that Daryle Lamonica is still the starting quarterback.
The Raiders are coming off a five-win 2008 season, which is the most games that they have won since 2002. Their top draft choice, wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey, is already dealing with hamstring issues, starting QB JaMarcus Russell has looked unproductive (and a few pounds overweight) in OTAs and the top free agent signing (LB Greg Ellis, from Dallas) brings tired legs and a reputation for whining.
What else is new?
The first priority for coach Tom Cable is to shoot some adrenaline into a passing game that was easily the worst (148 yards per game) in the NFL last season. Running back Darren McFadden looks like he’s not far from being an impact player, but, for some reason, Cable never warmed up to the kid.
On the plus side, the defense was half-decent last season and should be steady, especially against struggling offenses in Kansas City and Denver. Washington and Cincinnati are also on the schedule.
Surprising stat: Over players won only three times on Oakland games last season and just once in the first 14 games. (There were two pushes.)
San Diego Chargers
Projected win total: 9.5
Prediction: Over (-150)
The problem with the Chargers is that these guys don’t handle adversity too well. They had to take belt buckles away from LaDainian Tomlinson after a tough playoff loss in New England a few years back and All-Pro Shawne Merriman went over the edge when the team used its first-round pick to take an edge pass rusher (Larry English).
These guys need to chill and get down to football, which they’re actually pretty good at.
SD’s defense took three months to recover from the loss of Merriman and the Ed Hochili Week 2 fiasco. But with a fresh start and three dysfunctional division opponents, the Chargers should have little trouble this season, and should cover 9.5 wins before their annual playoff flameout. Don’t forget that these guys made the playoffs (and even beat Indianapolis) last season with a non-existent pass defense.
Philip Rivers has a top-five arm if not a top-five brain, and that’s more than enough to carry the Chargers into the playoffs until the real bullets start flying.
Surprising stat: Nate Kaeding connected on 27 of 32 field goal tries last season and has made more than 80 percent of his attempts for five straight years.