AFC West Preview
By David Chan.
The San Diego Chargers should take no prisoners in this division and anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be a disappointment to their fans. San Diego is one of the top five favorites at Las Vegas sports books to win the Super Bowl led by franchise quarterback Philip Rivers.
While the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will likely struggle to find their identity this season, the sleeper in this division is the Oakland Raiders who replaced quarterback/No. 1 draft bust JaMarcus Russell with former Washington starter Jason Campbell. On paper the Raiders seem poised for 6 to 8 wins but I believe the potential is there for nine or 10 wins.
San Diego Chargers
Projected win total: 11
Prediction: Over
What’s new: The Chargers shouldn’t take much of a hit with the departure of veteran running back LaDainian Tomlinson and cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who both landed with the Jets. Tomlinson is aging and 2008 first-round pick Antoine Cason should fill in nicely for Cromartie. The biggest loss could be nose tackle Jamal Williams. The Chargers moved up 16 spots in the recent draft to get tough running back Ryan Mathews (Fresno State) who will make an immediate impact.
Other additions are cornerback Donald Strickland (Jets), receiver Josh Reed (Buffalo), linebacker Donald Butler (Washington), left tackle Tra Thomas (Jacksonville) and defensive tackle Cam Thomas (North Carolina).
What’s the same: The passing game continues to be solid with Rivers, tight end Antonio Gates and veteran receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd. While losing Tomlinson and Cromartie might not hurt, what could hurt most is Jackson’s three-game league suspension (violating league’s personal conduct policy, DUI).
Adding depth to the receiver spot is 2007 first round pick Buster Davis who has been plagued by injuries the last three seasons. Speedy running back Darren Sproles and bruising newcomer Mathews will complement each other. Mathews will likely see more short-yardage carries but Sproles has the ability to break a 50-yard run at any time.
Defense should be solid with linebacker Shawne Merriman fully recovered from knee surgery he had two seasons ago. Cason will be tested early and often in the defensive secondary but underrated cornerback Quentin Jammer’s solid 2009 season should carry over to 2010.
Key stat to remember: The Chargers have 67 regular season wins since 2004.
Denver Broncos
Projected win total: 7.5
Prediction: Under
What’s new: Receiver Brandon Marshall, who tested management’s patience throughout the 2009 season, was traded to Miami. Tight end Tony Scheffler, another solid receiver, was traded to Detroit. The Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech) in the first round and he has game-breaking ability. But can he make an immediate impact?
Quarterback Brady Quinn (Cleveland) will compete with Kyle Orton for the starting job with drafted QB Tim Tebow a work in progress. Other key additions who should improve the defense are nose tackle Jamal Williams (San Diego), defensive ends Justin Bannon (Ravens) and Jarvis Green (New England), and linebacker Akin Ayodele (Miami).
What’s the same: Sorry, but QB Kyle Orton won’t bring back memories of John Elway, especially with the big loss of game-changer Marshall and an injury-prone offensive line that needs work. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter are experienced running backs.
Key stat to remember: Denver started off like gangbusters in 2009 with a 6-0 record but went 2-8 the last 10 games for an 8-8 final record.
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected win total: 6.5
Prediction: Over
What’s new: The key additions included a pair of seasoned coordinators with offensive guru Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. Weis should help with QB Matt Cassel’s maturation. Crennel should help the Chiefs improve their pass rush and also finally grasp coach Todd Haley’s 3-4 defensive system instituted last season.
Power running back Thomas Jones should help form a solid 1-2 punch with the speedy Jamaal Charles. Other key additions are guard Ryan Lilja (Colts), safety Eric Berry (Tennessee) and return specialists Javier Arenas (Alabama) and Dexter McCluster (Mississippi).
McCluster and Jerheme Urban (St. Louis) add depth at wide receiver. Rookie tight end Tony Moeaki (Iowa) has the potential to be another Tony Gonzalez.
What’s the same: While the offensive line still needs work, moving the ball and scoring points shouldn’t be a problem as long as Cassel can revert to his Patriots form. Charles is a solid back and Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers are solid receivers.
Key stat to remember: Only the Browns and Lions allowed more offensive yards per game than the Chiefs.
Oakland Raiders
Projected win total: 6
Prediction: Over
What’s new: There had to be a huge collective sigh of relief from the Raiders’ locker room when Russell was released and Williams was acquired at QB. This change will have a ripple effect across the board on offense. At the very least, Raider Nation now has a QB who can actually get the ball to a receiver consistently for the first time since Rich Gannon. Another plus is first-year offensive coordinator Hue Jackson who helped develop Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco.
Other key additions are middle linebacker Rolando McClain (Alabama), defensive tackles Lamar Houston (Texas) and John Henderson (Jacksonville) as well as offensive tackle Bruce Campbell (Maryland). McClain, who will likely take over for Kirk Morrison (Jacksonville) and Houston strengthen the defense. The offensive line still needs improvement but Campbell should help.
What’s the same: Sure, the Raiders have many of the same players on the team they had when they won five games last season. But the addition of a quality quarterback means a lot. Tight end Zach Miller was the best receiver for the Raiders last season. Watch for better production from receivers Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Johnnie Lee Higgins.
The key for any success, as it is for most NFL teams, is keeping the front-line players healthy. I’ve always been a huge Schilens fan and if he stays healthy I believe he can make a huge impact with the upgrade at QB. Running back Darren McFadden has been a bust (856 yards in two seasons). But if McFadden can stay healthy, with Justin Fargas a free agent and no longer in the mix, he can be a major player in 2010.
Key stat to remember: The Raiders ranked 31st in total yards per game last season with 266.1. They averaged 12.3 points a game last season. That production should change in 2010.
AFC West Preview
By Marc Lawrence
When the Denver Broncos selected Tim Terrific with its second pick in the first-round of this year’s NFL draft, they issued a statement.
It said last year’s 8-8 record was not acceptable, not after rookie coach Josh McDaniels shot out to a six-lap lead before a frightful 2-8 finish.
San Diego’s third straight 2-3 start under Norv Turner was just a warm-up en route an 11-1 rush through the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Kansas City and Oakland were simply stuck in neutral most of the season and both ended the campaign on the losing side of the ledger for the third straight year.
It makes Turner’s Chargers an overwhelming choice as the team to take the checkered flag in this division and a major frontrunner to make it to Jerry’s World in February.
In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts went 20-39-5 ATS this past decade in games versus division opponents with losing records, including a mind-boggling 2-16-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.
Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
DENVER
TEAM THEME: IN TIM WE TRUST
One of the best lines written about Denver drafting Tim Tebow in the first-round of the NFL draft this year was penned by Miami Herald columnist Greg Cote when he said, “I had not heard that many people talking about a white Bronco since Al Cowling was driving O.J. Simpson.” Like him or not, the city of Denver is abuzz about Tebow wearing a Broncos uni. Whether he supplants Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback is an answer that only God knows at the moment. What we know is that Denver made huge forward strides on defense under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels last year, improving its numbers 60 YPG. The offense, though, slipped 54 YPG and took a hit when troubled WR Brandon Marshall was dispatched to Miami. The question is which Broncos team will we see in 2010? The one that started last season 6-0, or the one that finished up 2-8. Tim:15 just might end up having a say in the matter.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Houston (12/26)
KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: COLOR ME NEW
There is a massive rebuilding project going on in Kansas City these days and it’s not limited to the new makeover at Arrowhead Stadium. Head coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli made inroads on the field in 2009. The four wins (all as underdogs) last year doubled 2008’s tally. They also outgained each of their final four foes to finish the season. Moreover, Haley contends QB Matt Cassel has grabbed the leadership reins of the 2010 Chiefs. "He's in here leading the pack every day," Haley said. "I mean, we can't keep him off the field. He's gathering the receivers any chance he can get. He has all the makings of being a solid quarterback in this league." Key offensive additions this year include RB Thomas Jones from the Jets and OG Ryan Lilja from the Colts. Meanwhile, S Eric Berry may prove to be the best pick in this year’s draft. The fresh coat of paint may appear temporary but at least the peeling has stopped.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. San Diego (9/13) – *KEY + 4 pts or more
OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: WHO’S MINDING THE STORE?
Let’s do the math. 2009 7th overall pick WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD. 2008 4th overall pick RB Darren McFadden: 865 rushing yards, 5 TD’s. 2007 1st overall pick QB Jamarcus Russell: 18 TD passes, 23 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 65.2. Those are the career marks of Al Davis’ last three first round choices, with Russell (7-18 as a starter) being cut loose this spring. Folks, if Davis was a contestant on ‘The Apprentice’ he’d hear Donald Trump shouting YOU’RE FIRED! So pathetic were the Raiders they became the first NFL team since 1960 to produce four straight sub-200 yard games. A positive was the acquisition of QB Jason Campbell from the Redskins. It should also be noted that the Raiders had some of the best off-season work this year that they've done in ages. And speaking of ages, if only Davis had taken the time to major in math, who knows where they’d be today?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas City (11/7) – *KEY as favorite
SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: TURNER ROUND
We’ve got to admit, we were wrong on our assessment of Norv Turner. It was easy to take potshots at him when he came aboard three years ago. After all, here was a coach that, previously in his NFL career, was 21-44-1 SU and 23-41-2 ATS in division play. Since coming to San Diego, he’s turned it completely around, as his Chargers averaged nearly 12 wins a season while going 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against division foes. And to set the table in 2010, the Bolts will benefit from a soft schedule when they take on the 3rd easiest slate in the league. A strong draft should go a long way in supplanting former Pro Bowlers LaDainian Tomlinson and CB Antonio Cromartie. Finally, keep this thought in mind when San Diego takes on their NFC counterparts this season: The visiting team in Chargers/NFC West games is 16-11 SU and 19-8 ATS. Don’t get nervous. Norv is in charge.
PLAY ON: as dog at Indianapolis (11/28)
AFC West Preview
By: Sean Higgs
San Diego Chargers - Look for the Bolts to head towards a 12-4 record. The bottom half of this division is still rebuilding. QB Phillip Rivers should continue to pile up numbers. San Diego will win its 5th straight divisional title, but HC Norv Turner must get this team to a Super Bowl. The defense is improved and the word is they are looking to ‘balance’ their offensive attack this year.
Denver Broncos - Year 2 of the Josh McDaniels show. Will it be the Tim Tebow show. The most hyped thing since the Y2K scare. This roster has had massive turnover but McDaniels is getting his players in place. Kyle Orton will try to fight off Brady Quinn for the starting QB job. They traded away WR Brandon Marshall and his 101 catches. This team has a lot of question marks including the OL. If they aren’t healthy, it won’t matter who is throwing the ball to a WR by committee group. They also have an entirely new defensive line. If they didn’t play with the Chiefs and Raiders this team would be challenging for a spot in the basement.
Kansas City Chiefs – Off a 4-12 campaign, they may win 5 games in 2010. It is a regular Patriots reunion now with OC Charlie Weiss and DC Romeo Crennel joining the coaching ranks. This team still has to stop the run. They gave up 156 ypg last year. Nowhere to go but up I guess. Let us assume that the new coordinators bring some flare and motivation. This team should win at least a game or 2 more than last season.
Oakland Raiders - The JaMarcus Russell blunder is over. Now can they get rid of Al Davis. New QB Jason Campbell takes the reigns. Now, I like Campbell. I think he played with a different OC every year in the league. Nobody is going to succeed with coaching like that. The Raiders tried to bolster up their defense by picking up LB Rolando McClain and DL Lamarr Houston with their first 2 draft picks. New faces will bring some excitement, but they are still not ready to contend.
AFC West Division Forecast
Great Lakes Sports
Welcome to another exciting NFL Football season, and we here at Great Lakes Sports are looking for a huge 2010-2011 season, as we will give you our predictions for the AFC West Division this season, and as always good luck from Great Lakes Sports.
1.) San Diego - The San Diego Chargers are coming off an outstanding 13-3 season, and are led by QB Philip Rivers who threw for 4,254 yards with a solid 28-9 ratio. The new look Chargers will have a successor to LaDainianTomlinson for the first time in eleven years. The San Diego Chargers who was ranked number 31 in the NFL in rushing last year, has a big question mark at RB, if the Chargers have any hopes of going deep into the playoffs this season. We look for the San Diego Chargers to fill that spot with rookie RB Ryan Matthews from Fresno State. The San Diego will have no trouble putting points on the scoreboard, and will be our pick to win The AFC West Division.
2.) Oakland - The Oakland Raiders will be vastly improved over last year with the addition of QB Jason Campbell who threw for 3,618 yards. The Raiders did not have a good season last year at running back, but we look for big things from second year RB Darren McFadden. The Raiders will need to get better on the defensive side of the ball before they will take the step to the next level and with a solid Draft getting LB Rolando McClain and DT Lamarr Houston they have done just that. We look for the Oakland Raiders to be more aggressive on defense and we will call for the Oakland Raiders to finish second in the weak AFC West Division .
3.) Denver - The Denver Broncos made some key moves this off- season acquiring QB Brady Quinn. The Broncos also bolster their defense picking up DE Jarvis Green who came from New England after twelve seasons. We look for the Denver Broncos to not only struggle on offense but they will also have their problems on defense stopping anyone. We look for the Denver Broncos to finish in third place in the weak AFC West Division.
4.) Kansas City - The Kansas City Chiefs tried to shore up their defense this season drafting hard hitting Safety Eric Berry. The Chiefs also does not have consistency on offense this season that will get Kansas City out of the cellar, and it will be a long hard season for the Kansas City Chiefs, We look for the Kansas City Chief to finish last in the weak AFC West Division, and will get another top five draft choice in next year ' s NFL Draft.
AFC West Preview
by Scott Rickenbach
Denver - Looks like a tough 2010 on tap for the Broncos. Denver finished up last season on a 2-8 run. Injuries are already an issue heading into this season. Coach McDaniels led an offense that was too vanilla and the drop off was evident in 2009 compared to 2008. The defense also is adjusting to new faces and will undoubtedly take some time to round back into form. They struggled against the run last season and, on the other side of the ball, their pass protection dropped off last season and they still have issues entering this season with injuries and personnel changes leading to a lack of cohesion for the unit.
Kansas City - This team is still young but they should show improvement this season. Head coach Todd Haley is much better off with Charlie Weis at offensive coordinator rather than Chan Gailey. Also, Romeo Crennel at defensive coordinator will pay off with the Chiefs. The running game for Kansas City showed improvement last season and they picked up Thomas Jones heading into this season plus the Chiefs made some nice upgrades to the offensive line in the off-season. Kansas City also had a nice draft giving them added depth and we see pointspread value being a possibility with the Chiefs as they will continue to be big dogs.
Oakland - Another ugly dog that is poised to improve. The Raiders were -13 in turnovers in 2009 and that certainly had a lot to do with their poor record. This team showed it does have talent as they managed to pull off some upset wins. QB Jason Campbell was, of course, a major upgrade over JaMarcus Russell and this team has had a different "vibe" in training camp this year. The Raiders draft was solid and added key depth as well as some immediate needs being addressed with players ready to step in as starters. With less off the field issues, don't be surprised if Tom Cable has this team cashing tickets early and often this season.
San Diego - The Chargers, of course, are still the heavy favorites to win the AFC West and that sentiment is certainly justified. The running game was an issue last year but San Diego addressed that in the draft and with offseason moves. Additionally, stopping the run last season was an issue as the Chargers front seven was dealt bad blows through injuries. The pass defense made major strides last season and the front seven will show improved performance this season simply with better health. Injuries really took a toll on San Diego as the season went on last year and, as a result, they are very anxious to make amends for last season's exit from the playoffs. A fantastic aerial attack, solid pass defense, and improvement in the running game (on both sides of the ball) mean that the Chargers are still the team to beat out west in 2010.