AFC Win Totals
By Brian Edwards
Most betting shops both offshore and in Las Vegas have recently posted win totals for the 2010 NFL campaign. On that note, let’s discuss a few of those numbers and more.
The highest win tallies belong to the Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers, who are at 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at BoDog. These wagers have a 30-cent line, so bettors wanting the ‘over’ would get an even-money price on the Bolts.
More than anything, San Diego shares the highest total due to its weak division. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos are all going through rebuilding phases, as evidenced by win totals of 6, 6 ½ and 7 1/2, respectively.
With that said, this space thinks Oakland could turn some heads this year. We saw it was a different team when JaMarcus Russell wasn’t under center last year. Remember, the Raiders went into Heinz Field and won outright as 14 ½-point underdogs when the Steelers were in a must-win situation in terms of their playoff hopes.
With Russell belatedly jettisoned out of town, Jason Campbell takes over as the team’s starting quarterback. The former Redskin signal caller was acquired on draft day, which went quite well for the Raiders (in a shocking change of pace) according to this guy.
I loved the pick of linebacker Rolando McClain, who was more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in most mock drafts but went to Oakland at No. 8. However, this was not a Darrius Heyward-Bey type of reach and it says here that McClain is going to be a perennial Pro-Bowler.
Similar to its pick of Louis Murphy as a fourth-round steal the year before, Oakland got great value by drafting Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford in the fourth round. In fact, the Raiders scored a pair of fourth-round steals by also selecting Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, who is a first-round talent that could start immediately on an offensive line that’s been the team’s biggest weakness the last two years.
Back to the Colts, who have a win total of 11 ‘under’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com. This offshore website has 20-cent lines, so gamblers can bet ‘over’ 11 wins on Indy for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).
Peyton Manning and Co. play at New England in late November and will play at Philadelphia earlier in the month. The Colts will face the Eagles on a short week of preparation after hosting Houston for Monday Night Football the previous week.
Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all optimistic that it can break through in 2010. We saw how the Titans went from 0-6 to 8-2 once Vince Young replaced Kerry Collins as the team’s starting QB last year. Assuming the organization can get star RB Chris Johnson (2,006 rushing yards LY) happy with his contract and into training camp, there’s no reason to think the Titans aren’t a legit contender.
Jeff Fisher’s club has been saddled with a win total of 8 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). Tennessee is hoping that first-round pick Derrick Morgan can replace veteran defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, who bolted to Detroit via free agency. Morgan had 12 ½ sacks at Ga. Tech in 2009. Another rookie, third-round pick Damian Williams from out of USC, should be able to have an immediate impact on Young and the squad’s aerial attack.
The Texans are still trying to get to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They came close last season, finishing 9-7. Gary Kubiak was retained, but he probably needs to get to the postseason this year if he wants a sixth season in Houston.
The organization likes what it has, as evidenced by the return of nearly the entire nucleus except for CB Dunta Robinson, who inked a big free-agent contract with Atlanta. The Texans did address the kicking game with the signing of former Arizona place kicker Neil Rackers. They have a win total of eight ‘over’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com.
Jacksonville’s tally is the lowest in the AFC South at seven ‘under’ (minus-120). Like Kubiak in Houston, Jack Del Rio probably has to get the Jaguars back to the playoffs in order to keep his job. I hated the team’s draft and they weren’t exactly active in the free-agent market with their best acquisition (DE Aaron Kampman) coming off a torn ALC. I think it’s ‘under’ or pass on the Jags’ win tally.
The AFC North has Baltimore with the highest win total, 10 ‘over’ (minus-120). The Ravens are looking for their third straight trip to the playoffs during John Harbaugh’s tenure. They brought in WR Anquan Boldin to give QB Joe Flacco help with the passing game. The draft also addressed some needs, as a bulky DT was plucked out of the second round. His name is Terrence Cody from out of Alabama.
Pittsburgh has the Ben Roethlisberger suspension to cope with early in the year. Nevertheless, the Steelers have a win total of nine ‘under’ (minus-150). Bettors can back the ‘over’ for a plus-130 return.
For the second straight time, I really like what Cincinnati did in the draft. The Bengals got a tight end in Jermaine Gresham, who missed last season after tearing his ACL at Oklahoma. In the second and third rounds, they got two players who should immediately contribute in Florida DE Carlos Dunlap and Texas WR Jordan Shipley, who got loose for several big plays against Alabama’s vaunted secondary during the BCS Championship Game.
Laveranues Coles was let go and will be replaced by Antonio Bryant, who struggled through an injury-riddled 2009 campaign but had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards in 2008. Of course, Chad Johnson will be Carson Palmer’s go-to guy, while Shipley will battle Andre Caldwell to be the team’s third receiver.
Marvin Lewis’s team has a win total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-150). I think the ‘under’ is a good look here, especially after reviewing Cincy’s schedule. Consider how tough it will be for the Bengals to win in these six road games: at New England, at Atlanta, at Indianapolis, at the Jets on a Thursday night, at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger will be back in December and at Baltimore. They also have to play San Diego and New Orleans at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cleveland’s number is 5 ½ ‘over (minus-125). The Browns won four in a row to end the regular season and save Eric Mangini’s job, but they still went 5-11 overall. Mike Holmgren has taken over in the front office and not surprisingly, there has been a lot of turnover in the personnel department.
Both QBs (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) are gone in favor of veteran Jake Delhomme, who once took the Panthers to the Super Bowl but had an abysmal 8/18 TD-INT ratio for Carolina in 2009. His competition is Senaca Wallace, who has plenty of experience from filling in for oft-injured Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck.
Now let’s examine the AFC East, which has the Jets with a win total of 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus-125) per Sportsbook.com. I like this ‘over’ for a plus-105 return and still have the J-E-T-S under consideration as possibly being my pick to win the Super Bowl.
Is there any team in the NFL that brought in more proven talent than the Jets during the offseason? The answer is a resounding ‘no.’ GM Mike Tannenbaum has been a busy man, trading for WR Santonio Holmes and CB Antonio Cromartie, in addition to signing the likes of pass-rushing specialist Jason Taylor and record-setting RB LaDainian Tomlinson.
We know Tomlinson has lost a few steps but with Thomas Jones gone, the veteran will be an excellent back-up to Shonn Greene. The club also brought in a pair of talented players through the draft that can make an instant impact. CB Kyle Wilson was the team’s first-round selection, and the All-American from Boise St. is a playmaker. Look for him in nickel and dime packages from the get-go and he could be a capable fill-in for Cromartie or Darrelle Revis, especially if the Pro-Bowler’s potential holdout becomes an issue. Finally, the Jets got great value with their fourth-round pick, Joe McKnight from USC, who can be a home-run threat on special teams.
New England’s win total is also 9 ½ shaded to the ‘over’ by a minus-125 price. Miami’s number is 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-120), while Buffalo has a win total of 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130).
The Pats continue to bring in past-their-prime veterans on the cheap. This time around, those players include WR Torry Holt, DT Gerard Warren and TE Alge Crumpler. In terms of fresh, young talent, Bill Belichick drafted a trio of Florida Gators who should get significant playing time as rookies.
Those UF products include DE Jermaine Cunningham, All-American LB Brandon Spikes and All-American TE Aaron Hernandez. The tight end is a special talent who certainly would’ve been a first-rounder if not for pre-draft rumors linking him to marijuana use. I think you look at the ‘over’ for the Pats or pass.
That’ll conclude our look at win totals for AFC teams, but be sure to check back this week for my breakdown of win tallies for the NFC squads.
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