AFL on NFL Network: Odds and Betting Preview
By SCOTT COOLEY
Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz at Iowa Barnstormers (-4), 9 p.m. ET
This week’s Arena Football on the NFL Network matchup showcases two teams expected to compete at the bottom of the standings with the Oklahoma City Yard Dawgz (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) visiting the Iowa Barstormers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) on Saturday night.
After seeing 36 points of line movement in Week 2, last weekend’s AFL games incurred a total of 22.5 points in line swings.
“These lines aren’t moving by accident,” said Covers Expert Ted Sevransky, who has enjoyed unparalleled success handicapping the AFL in his career. “There are two groups involved right now that are really moving the numbers. The early money is going to win and the late money is going to lose.”
Sportsbooks didn’t even put out last Saturday’s lines until the morning of. Sevransky had some choice words about that situation but understands this is a niche sports the books aren’t begging for money in and that if a bettor dedicates the hours needed for research he will have an advantage.
“If we take every oddsmaker in the world and calculated collectively how much time they spent on Arena Football every week, they might have put in an hour,” Sevransky stated. “I spend easily 20-25 hours every week on the AFL and when you put that kind of time in, it gives you an edge.”
Taking the “O” out of offense
Iowa is struggling mightily to discover its offensive identity through two games in 2010. The Barnstormers are tied for the fewest touchdowns in the league (13) and rank 13th (out of 15) in scoring.
“When we’re looking at stats we can use for the Arena Football League, yards per play is a pretty basic stat that tells you if the team is moving the football effectively,” said Sevransky.
The Barnstormers averaged 4.5 yards per play in their season-opening loss to Chicago and posted a 5.9 ypp number last week. Iowa has failed to register 300 total yards in either game and that is unheard of in the AFL where offense rules.
Oklahoma City hasn’t been much better offensively. The Dawgz have gained only 5.2 yards per play in two games this season and rank 11th in the league in scoring. Head coach Sparky McEwen is a guy that will always elect to kick a field goal rather than go for it on fourth down.
V is for vile
The primary culprit of Iowa’s offensive ineptness is a serviceable signal-caller.
Brian Villanueva started the season under center but tossed two interceptions in his first three offensive series and hasn’t stepped back onto the field since.
Journeyman Ryan Vena supplanted Villanueva as the team’s quarterback. In two games, Vena has thrown five picks in 77 attempts with a paltry 54.5 percent completion percentage.
“Vena is not a long-term answer, he’s not a QB I have a whole lot of respect for,” admitted Sevransky.
There has been chatter that Villanueva could get some playing time this week if Vena struggles out of the gate. A team still looking for their offensive distributor is not one bettors should put a lot of confidence in.
Packing the barn
Iowa fans are some of the most loyal in the AFL and sellouts have been common going back to the days when Kurt Warner led the Barnstormers.
“The AFL is not the NFL, NBA, college football or college basketball, every team has a different home-field edge,” Sevransky said. “In the NFL home-field is worth approximately 3 points to a spread, in arena football it could range from nothing to more than 3 points.”
Wells Fargo Arena will be raucous on Saturday night for this nationally-televised event and cappers should factor in at least a field goal in favor of the Barnstormers.
McEwen said this is the toughest place to play in the league because of the fan support and crowd noise. Defensive back David Hyland realizes Oklahoma City has to get out to a quick start.
"With a hostile environment like that, you really just have to make plays to put out the fire immediately,” he said. "If you give them fuel for that fire, it’s going to keep growing and growing.”
What’s your motivation?
While the Barnstormers opened the season on the NFL Network, many players on the Oklahoma City squad have never played on a national stage.
"Playing at a small school, Morehead State, we never got the opportunity to play on ESPN or any of the major networks,” said Hyland.
"This is our guys’ Monday Night Football,” coach McEwen added.
Another motivating factor for the Yard Dawqz is a writer’s poll from last week that ranked the club last in the league. The team hung up the release in its locker room as bulletin board material.
"That right there is extra motivation to go out there and play football,” offensive lineman Kelly Butler said. "We want to prove that we are a very high-caliber team.”
Trendencies
Home teams are 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS this season.
Iowa is 0-1 SU and ATS in its only home game of 2010.
For the year, former af2 teams have gone 6-1 SU and ATS against old AFL teams. Matchups this week include Tulsa (af2) at Arizona (AFL) and Tampa Bay (AFL) at Milwaukee (af2).