AFL on the NFL Network: Spokane at Jacksonville
By SCOTT COOLEY
Spokane Shock at Jacksonville Sharks (-5.5, 108)
The regular season finale on the NFL Network showcases a pair of the top teams in the league. Spokane (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) has claimed the No. 1 overall seed in AFL postseason while the Sharks (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) are winners of four consecutive games. This contest is a potential ArenaBowl preview.
On the mend
Jacksonville is tied atop the Southern Division standings with Tampa Bay. Whichever team captures the division crown will earn home field throughout the American Conference playoffs. The Sharks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa, so if they win Friday it makes Tampa’s game Saturday meaningless, which is why the line is off the board.
With this game holding so much playoff implications, Jacksonville quarterback Aaron Garcia is going to return early from injury. Garcia was knocked out in the first quarter of a game with a separated shoulder and mild concussion two weeks ago.
“Aaron’s good to go,” Jacksonville coach Les Moss said. “It’s not perfect, but there aren’t many guys out here this time of the season who are perfect.”
Bernard Morris relieved Garcia under center and led the Sharks to a 49-47 home victory over Tampa Bay as 1-point underdogs in Week 16. He made his first career AFL start last Saturday and came away with a convincing 48-20 win over Bossier.
Morris threw for seven touchdowns and rushed for two more in Garcia’s absence, so if something happens Friday the Sharks are insured with a competent backup. And that’s a good thing because the veteran Garcia doesn’t sound 100 percent.
“There are things I’m going to do on Friday night that are going to cause pain, and I’ll have to be ready to deal with it,” Garcia said.
To rest, or not to rest
Shock head coach Rob Keefe faces a similar situation that the Indianapolis Colts’ Jim Caldwell endured last season. Spokane doesn’t have an undefeated record on the line but the team has won 11 straight decisions (8-3 ATS) and doesn’t have anything to play with home-field advantage locked up through to the championship.
So the decision has to be made whether to play the starters for the full game or not risk injury and allow some reserves to see action. AFL rosters are small enough that most of the regulars will receive playing time, but for how long is the big question. Bettors can find solace in Keefe’s words from two weeks ago.
“I’m going to put the best on the field every week,” he said. “Somebody asked me the other day, ‘Do you want to lose before the playoffs?’ No, I think you want to win at everything you do all the time.”
Keefe has also stated that it’s his duty to advance members of the Shock to the highest level of professional football. NFL scouts tune in to the AFL’s nationally-televised game every week searching for diamonds in the rough, so this is an opportunity to showcase talent.
All signs indicate the Shock will be trotting out their starters for the majority of this contest but if they get up or down by double digits expect to see some backups on the field.
West to East
The least favorable travel scenario in sports is excursing from the West Coast across country to the East Coast. With the loss of three hours, players’ internal clocks can get out of sync which can ultimately affect performance on the field.
While Spokane has a decisive home-field advantage when hosting a game, they face just as much of a battle when traveling because no AFL team is less than 1,300 miles from Eastern Washington. The Shock nearly doubled that flight log this week with a 2,200-mile trek to the northern part of Florida.
Spokane got the best of Jacksonville at home on May 29, winning 67-57 as a 4-point favorite. But the Sharks have been stingy at Sea Best Field in this year with a 6-1 record (4-3 ATS) while outscoring their opponent by an average of 11.3 points per game during the wins.
Go to the monitor
The AFL will be experimenting with instant replay in this game in hopes of securing a system to use for the 2010 playoffs. So hopefully there won’t be any bad calls bettors can blame the outcome of the game on.
The league utilizes local officiating crews, so by this point in the season home teams have an advantage. They should have identified the tendencies of the referees and know what they can and can’t get away with. This season’s statistics show that home teams are penalized far fewer times than the visiting squads.