Are Big-10 Teams worth a College Bowl Pick ?
By: Michael Alexander
Much has been made about teams in the Big-10 and their performance when they venture outside of their conference. Many "experts" point out that before their conference action early in the year they play less than formidable opponents and then finish off the season with no conference championship. In addition, they point out that they are nothing but slow teams that can't compete with the other top rated conferences (especially the PAC-10 and SEC). Although you can point to any historical result to support these claims I decided to look for myself and see if there was any College Bowl Pick opportunities this season.
Certainly it appears that the lines makers have recognized the dismal performance of the Big-10 in College Bowl Picks by making them the largest underdog of this Bowl season. Only one of the seven teams that received bids is playing as a favorite (Iowa vs. South Carolina in the Outback Bowl). The other six teams are underdogs of at least 5-1/2 points, with four being double-digit college picks underdogs. With this many Big-10 teams on the dog side of the ledger it just might serve up some College Bowl Picks opportunites as that teams from this conference are on a run of 25-13-1 ATS as underdogs and 15-8 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more.
With all that said let's take a look at some historical trends for some College Bowl Picks:
Trend #1
Favorites in Big Ten bowl games went 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS least year ending a 4-year run in which underdogs covered 17 of 20games!
Trend #2
As an underdog the Big Ten is 25-13-1 ATS their last 39 Bowl Picks and ar even better when listed as a dog of 7 or more points going 11-12 SU but 15-8 ATS (65%)
Trend #3
The Big Ten has produced good College Bowl Picks results versus the Big 12, going 13-5 ATS (72%) in L18 but has struggled versus the Pac 10 going 3-16-1 ATS (16%) in their L20 Bowl Picks.
So what does all this mean? The bottom line is that the above trends have given us some good College Bowl Picks opportunities
Play On: Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State
Play Against: Penn State in the Rose Bowl matchup with USC.