Arena Football on NFL Network: Iowa at Orlando
By SCOTT COOLEY
Iowa Barnstormers at Orlando Predators (-6), 8 p.m. ET
Arena Football Friday continues on the NFL Network with a meeting between the Iowa Barnstormers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and Orlando Predators (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS).
Spreads in the AFL are getting tighter, evidenced by last week’s four games moving a total of 10.5 points after the first three weeks of action averaged 25.8 points in line movements.
And home teams are beginning to find an advantage, going 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS since Week 1.
Bye, bye birdie
The Predators are coming off a bye week – the second of the young season. Head coach Pat O’Hara said that a bye without a win makes for a long week, but it afforded his staff a chance to reevaluate personnel and gameplan more in depth for Friday.
Unlike the NFL, arena teams are forbidden to hold organized practices during bye weeks so many of the players return to their offseason homes.
“In our league we don’t have the guys the whole week so a lot of the guys aren’t around,” O’Hara said. “It’s a time for them to get away from it, take a fresh approach and come back ready to go. More of it is mental and reaffirming the basics.”
So while a handicapper might factor a point or two into the spread with a team coming off a bye in the NFL, there really isn’t much of an advantage in the AFL.
Orlando encountered its first bye in Week 1 and petitioned to start training camp a week late because of it. Some pundits argue that move put the Predators two weeks behind the other teams from a preparation standpoint.
Defensively challenged
In a league where quarterback pressure creates turnovers and defensive stops decide games, Orlando has fallen well below the average.
The Predators are one of only three teams to have not recorded a sack this season and they’ve only managed to register 2.0 tackles for loss.
“Obviously we don’t want to be in the situation we’re in right now (defensively) but with the bye week we hopefully cleaned up some of these mistakes we were making,” O’Hara said. “A lot of them were mental assignments and penalties and we can fix them.”
Orlando’s defense has stopped the opposition from scoring only four times all season and has given up 15 touchdown passes against one interception.
Calming the storm
If there was any week for the Predators defense to make some plays, this would be it as the Barnstormers offense has been pathetic this season.
Iowa’s offense has failed to record 300 total yards in any of its three games. Getting fortunate in forcing some key turnovers at the right times, the Barnstormers were able to defeat Oklahoma City last week despite being outgained 391 to 263 in total yardage.
Covers Expert Ted Sevransky says a key stat when handicapping arena football is yards per play and Iowa’s season average of 5.7 ypp is one of the lowest in the league.
Quarterback Ryan Vena has struggled throwing the ball this year, throwing for only 14 touchdowns and 714 yards against five interceptions which equates to the lowest QB rating in the league (96.0).
The lack of confidence head coach John Gregory has in his signal-caller is apparent as the team goes into a rushing offensive attack around the goal line. But the gameplan has worked effectively as Vena’s husky frame has allowed him to rumble into the endzone for six scores.
Home on the range
Amway Arena is home of the Orlando Magic but the venue is only known as “The Jungle” in the realm of arena football.
Predators fans are undoubtedly some of the most passionate supporters in the league and they create a home-field advantage like nowhere else. The team used to run a Hooters promotion where one lucky fan would get to chill in a hot tub with girls in bikinis while watching the game. Make no mistake, fans are encouraged to get drunk and obnoxious at these games.
Another unique edge Orlando has at home is curved endzones. Most arena football endzones are constructed in the standard rectangular fashion but a handful of teams continue to use the hockey-style rounded endzones.
Iowa will not be accustomed to catching balls in a more confined space and depth range could affect receivers.
Trendencies
-The Predators are 3-1 SU and ATS all-time versus the Barnstormers during the regular season.
-Iowa is 0-1 SU and ATS on the road in 2010.
-Home teams in the AFL are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS since Week 1.
-Road teams are accruing 12.3 more penalties per week than home teams.
-For the year, former af2 teams have gone 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS against old AFL teams. Matchups this week include Iowa (af2) at Orlando (AFL), Bossier-Shreveport (af2) at Utah (AFL) and Cleveland (AFL) at Spokane (af2).