Sevransky's Arena Football Week 17 notes
By TED SEVRANSKY
Favorite bettors in the AFL suffered an absolute disaster this past weekend. While the favorites were 7-1 straight up, the underdogs were a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Only the underdog Colorado Crush winning outright.
All eight games were decided in the final minute, with five of the eight outcomes not determined until the final 10 seconds of the game. Five games were determined after a failed on-side kick, two by a failed fourth down pass and one by a last second missed field goal. If you were looking for excitement and competitive games, the AFL certainly suited your needs this past weekend.
It’s extremely rare to see favorites win seven of eight games in straight up fashion, but lose all eight against the spread. All seven games where the favorite won but didn’t cover were decided by three points or less. In a league where the winning team covers the spread at better than 80 percent, the results this past weekend were a significant change from the long term history of the league.
As the regular season ends this weekend, there are eight teams battling for six playoff spots – three seeds available for the taking in each conference. In the American Conference, four teams with 5-10 records (the Utah Blaze, LA Avengers, Grand Rapids Rampage and Colorado Crush) will battle for the three playoff spots, with one of the four teams earning a home playoff game. In league history, there has never been a team with a losing record that has hosted a playoff game.
One of the four teams listed above will host a playoff game next week with (at best) a 6-10 record. Since 1995, there had been just five teams with losing records to reach the postseason but there will be three that earn that dubious achievement in 2008.
One of the biggest in-season turnarounds this year came from the Georgia Force. Georgia wrapped up its third division title in four years this past weekend with a nail-biting win over Chicago. Remember, Georgia went 14-2 last year, clinching its division title midseason.
This year, however, after losing two thirds of their superstar receiving trio when Derek Lee when to Columbus and Chris Jackson went to Philadelphia in the offseason, the Force stumbled out the gate, losing five of their first eight.
Georgia head coach Doug Plank: “I’ve never had so many people question my ability to coach before. It was a difficult time for us, but we just had to keep doing what we felt was right to put our team in a position to win.” Plank’s patience paid off, as Georgia reeled off seven straight wins to win the division, winning outright as underdogs on four separate occasions during that span.
This week’s game at San Jose is meaningless for the Force, but Plank is reportedly not going to be resting starters with a bye week on tap.
The Chicago Rush have tanked down the stretch, losing three of their last four, including the loss at Georgia this past weekend. Their lone win during this span came in a near-upset by lowly Kansas City as the Rush needed to rally from a double digit fourth quarter deficit as two touchdown favorites.
To make matters even worse for Chicago, they’ve suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the football. All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo ruptured his right biceps tendon, placed on injured reserve prior to last week’s game. His backup, Ryan Dennard started against Georgia but left the game with an injury after the first series forcing LB Liam Ezekiel into extensive action. Alfonzo’s injury is a devastating one.
The playoff scenario going into the final two weeks of the 2008 regular season for the Colorado Crush was simple: win twice and you’re in. Colorado had suffered a devastating injury blow of their own, when star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens torn his ACL, joining another speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt on injured reserve. On Monday night the Crush took care of part one of their playoff scenario, blowing most of a four touchdown lead at Arizona but hanging on for the win.
With co-owner John Elway making headlines this past week by discussing the possibility of folding the franchise or completely tearing apart the team in the offseason, the Crush needed a strong performance and they got one.
I don’t know why head coaches lie to the media and their own players, but it cost us a bet last week. Columbus Destroyers head coach Doug Kay told his team and the local beat writer that he would be giving backup quarterback Justin Zwick “extensive” playing time. With the Destroyers trailing by two scores and the crowd chanting for the former Ohio State hero (“We Want Zwick”), Kay gave Zwick exactly one play under center for the entire game. Zwick: “I thought I was going to play a lot more.”
I guess one play from scrimmage was enough for the 3-12 Destroyers to evaluate Zwick’s capabilities. We’ll have to see whether he gets more playing time this week in the Destroyers season finale at Cleveland.
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AFL Week 17
Saturday, June 21
COLUMBUS (3 - 12) at CLEVELAND (8 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GRAND RAPIDS (5 - 10) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 7) - 6/21/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GRAND RAPIDS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LOS ANGELES (5 - 10) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) after playing a game on a Saturday since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in June games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY (3 - 12) at COLORADO (5 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
COLORADO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (5 - 10) at ARIZONA (8 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 5-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA (10 - 5) at SAN JOSE (10 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 110 this season.
SAN JOSE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games where the total is greater than or equal to 110 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after playing a game on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 8 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, June 22
PHILADELPHIA (12 - 3) at NEW YORK (8 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 110 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 110 since 1996.
NEW YORK is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (12 - 3) at CHICAGO (10 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games where the total is between 100 and 104.5 points since 1996.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 8 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TREND SHEET
Saturday, June 21
7:00 PM COLUMBUS vs. CLEVELAND
Columbus is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Columbus is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus
7:00 PM GRAND RAPIDS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Grand Rapids is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Grand Rapids is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
7:30 PM LOS ANGELES vs. TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
8:00 PM KANSAS CITY vs. COLORADO
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
10:00 PM UTAH vs. ARIZONA
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
10:30 PM GEORGIA vs. SAN JOSE
Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
Georgia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose
San Jose is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
San Jose is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Sunday, June 22
3:00 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW YORK
Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing New York
New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
4:00 PM DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home