Arizona at Carolina
By Brian Edwards
After winning its first home playoff game since 1947, Arizona (10-7 straight up, 10-7 against the spread) heads to the East coast for the sixth time this season.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, each of the five previous trips have resulted in losses. In fact, they lost those five games by an average of 20.0 points per game. Even worse, ‘Zona is 2-20 SU in its last 22 trips into the Eastern time zone.
On the flip side, Carolina (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) has been perfect at home this season, posting an 8-0 SU record to go with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. The Panthers have taken the cash in back-to-back home games with wins by 15 points or more over Denver and Tampa Bay.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Carolina as a 10-point favorite with a total of 48. As of Thursday morning, the line had seen little movement for the side or total. The Cardinals are plus-325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325).
“I really see this game as a shoot-out,” VegasInsider.com handicapper Bill Marzano said. “And Carolina should cruise to an easy cover. The Panthers have had a week off to get healthy and let’s face it, Arizona is horrible on the road, especially when it come into the Eastern time zone.”
When these teams met in Charlotte back in Week 8, Carolina captured a 27-23 victory as a five-point home favorite. Jake Delhomme completed 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Steve Smith had five receptions for 117 yards and two TD catches. DeAngelo Williams ran for 108 yards and one touchdown.
Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Anquan Boldin had nine receptions and both scoring strikes from Warner.
Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald give Warner the best 1-2 punch of wideouts in the NFL. However, Boldin is extremely “questionable” this week with a strained hamstring and a sore shoulder that kept him out of the last two regular-season games.
Boldin hurt his hammy while pulling away from Atlanta’s Lawyer Milloy on a 71-yard TD catch that was mostly Boldin’s running after catching an out route and eluding Milloy down the sidelines. The big play gave ‘Zona a 14-3 lead. They would go on to collect a 30-24 victory as one-point home favorites.
Warner threw for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one each to Fitzgerald and Boldin. The Cardinals’ shaky running game actually came to life against the Falcons, as Edgerrin James produced 73 yards on 16 rushes.
With the Falcons leading 17-14 and getting the ball to start the third quarter, the game changed on a huge play. Darnell Dockett got a great push into the Atlanta backfield to disrupt the exchange between Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, resulting in a fumble that Antrel Rolle scooped up and scored from 25 yards out.
Carolina comes into the playoffs on fire with eight wins in its last 10 games. The lone losses were an overtime heartbreaker against the Giants in the Meadowlands and a division defeat at Atlanta.
The Panthers clinched the NFC South and the subsequent first-round bye thanks to a John Kasey last-second field goal at New Orleans. Kasey’s heroics lifted John Fox’s team to a 33-31 win as a one-point road favorite.
Once again, it was WR Steve Smith making a dynamic play to lead the Panthers to victory. After the Saints stormed back from a 23-3 deficit to take a 31-30 lead, Carolina was buried deep in its own territory when Delhomme threw deep toward Smith into double coverage. The perennial Pro-Bowler went up high and made a sensational grab for a 39-yard gainer.
Despite missing a pair of games, Smith finished the regular season with 78 receptions for 1,421 yards and and six TDs. He is Carolina’s main target when it goes to the air.
However, this squad has really developed its power running game during the course of the year. Williams has enjoyed a breakout campaign, rushing for 1,515 yards and 18 TDs. Rookie Jonathan Stewart from out of Oregon has also had a major impact on the NFL’s fourth-best ground attack. Stewart averages 4.5 yards per carry and has 10 rushing touchdowns.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 in Carolina’s eight home games in 2008. The highest previous total at home for the Panthers was 47 ½ in a 30-10 win over Denver that stayed ‘under.’ Carolina saw its highest total of 2008 in the win at New Orleans that went ‘over’ to close the regular season.
The ‘over’ has been a big-time money maker for the Cardinals, cashing at a 12-5 overall clip. However, totals have been a wash (4-4) when Arizona has gone on the road.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. Eastern Saturday night on FOX.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run for the Panthers.
--The ‘over’ is 8-2-1 in Carolina’s last 11 playoff games.
--The last time Arizona advanced this far into the playoffs was in 1999. Coming off a road win at Dallas, the Cardinals went into the Metrodome and lost a 41-21 decision to the Vikings as 15½-point underdogs.
Arizona at Carolina Preview
By Lenny Del Genio
It seems as if no one is giving the underdog Arizona Cardinals a chance in their Saturday night playoff date with the Carolina Panthers. However, before dismissing the Cards, be aware that Carolina is the only team that Arizona covered against as a) an underdog and b) in the Eastern Time Zone. Still, that hasn’t stopped the oddsmakers from posting what will certainly be the biggest spread we see all postseason (provided Arizona doesn’t pull the upset and plays again next week).
They (meaning the oddsmakers) certainly have their reasons for posting a high line. Arizona is making its first appearance in this round since the playoff format was realigned and it’s the first time we’ve seen the franchise in the round of eight since their days in St. Louis back in 1975. They have lost 18 of 20 games played in the Eastern Time Zone straight up, including seven straight and all five this year. They are 1-18 SU their L19 non-division road games and 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS as an underdog this year.
Still, most of those numbers are straight up and not against the spread. Everyone was writing off Arizona last week headed into the franchise’s first home playoff game since 1947, but they responded with a 30-24 win over the Atlanta Falcons as they scored 16 unanswered points in the second half. It was the eighth time this season that the Cardinals offense reached 30 points or more.
The resurgence of RB Edgerrin James is something that Arizona will need to continue if they are to be successful this week. James has 173 yards on 30 carries in his last two games after an eight game stretch that saw the former Pro Bowler carry the ball just 11 times total.
The Cardinals defense did its part as well, holding the league’s second leading rusher, Michael Turner, to a season low 42 yards on 18 carries.
One could argue that Arizona actually outplayed Carolina in the regular season meeting as they outgained the Panthers 425-351 and held a two-touchdown lead in the third quarter before falling 27-23.
A big reason for the Carolina comeback was WR Steve Smith, who leads an offense than can match that of the Cardinals. Smith had 5 catches for 117 yards vs. Arizona and would go on to have eight 100+ yard days in his final eleven games.
Carolina was dominant at home this season, winning all eight games by a margin of 15.3 PPG. They have beaten Arizona five straight times and boast a rushing attack (Williams and Stewart) that combined to produce over 2300 yards and 28 touchdowns.