Armed Forces, New Era, Music City, Holiday Bowl News and Notes

Armed Forces Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

The Pony Excess was an ESPN documentary on the Southern Methodist sins that buried the program for two decades. The Pony Express was either the Craig James-Eric Dickerson combo or the communications system America relied on in the 1860s. What’s clear, though, is that all three of those entities involved actions that happened on the ground: conniving behind backroom doors, rushing between the tackles to daylight, or men on horseback conveying information and packages to other places in a pre-20th century world.

What do the modern-day SMU Mustangs have in common with those three portraits of Ponies? Precious little, if anything. This is a new SMU crew, not your father’s or grandfather’s band, that’s about to take on the ground-embracing collection of cadets from West Point, New York. This is not an SMU team that’s intimately linked to its predecessors who have played football in suburban Dallas over the decades.

Yes, the whole-cloth contrast is really rather evident, isn’t it? The Army Black Knights love to run. The Southern Methodist Mustangs love to pass. Two very different football methodologies collide in Fort Worth when the Armed Forces Bowl kicks off.

The Black Knights finally got over the hump this season and were able to reach their first bowl game in 14 long years. Coach Rich Ellerson was the right hire at West Point; the defense-minded man has had exposure to the triple-option offense at previous coaching stops in Hawaii and Cal-Poly, and he accurately sensed that this was the right fit for the Black Knights of the Hudson River. Army has done slightly better than in 2009 because it has cut down on turnovers, but the Black Knights will struggle if they do cough up the pill, a fact proved in painful detail when a fumble at the Navy 2-yard line turned into a 98-yard touchdown for the Midshipmen, part of Army’s 31-17 loss in the latest Army-Navy Game on Dec. 11. Quarterback Trent Steelman experienced a lot of growing pains last season, and this year, he’s been a better field general who has made better reads and decisions. However, his fumble against Navy will haunt him, and the young signal caller has to shake off that memory against SMU. Army’s best win this season came against the Duke Blue Devils, it should be noted, so it’s not as though Army defeated a particularly imposing roster of adversaries to get to this point.

The Mustangs racked up another special achievement this season, one year after making and winning the Hawaii Bowl in 2009. SMU won the West Division of Conference USA, affirming its place as a solid program that has banished the memory of the “death penalty,” the Pony Excess-documented course of events that effectively killed the program for 20 years, beginning in the late 1980s. Coach June Jones has come from the University of Hawaii, however, and immediately instilled a great deal of steely reserve into his players. Jones’ play-calling excellence has also allowed quarterback Kyle Padron to become a promising – though still unpolished – quarterback. SMU dumped East Carolina and Tulsa this season, two decent wins for the program, but a stumble against Army would leave the Mustangs at 7-7 through 14 games, a place these Ponies don’t want to go.

It is tough to prepare for the triple-option, but it’s less difficult to do so when you have almost four weeks the way SMU does. The Mustangs will be able to contain Army’s offense; the same probably won’t be said for Army’s defense against SMU’s passing game. However, it also has to be said that SMU has sputtered in its more recent games. Jones hasn’t gotten 35- or 40-point outings from his offense with a great deal of regularity this year. If SMU gives Army a few turnovers here and there, the Armed Forces Bowl could be won by the armed forces representative.

STAT PACK

SMU

Passing Yards Per Game: 273.8 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 22)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 140.9 (Ranking: 78)

Points Per Game: 26.6 (Ranking: 66)

Points Allowed Per Game: 26.4 (Ranking: 61)

Army

Passing: 82.1 ypg (Ranking: 120)

Rushing: 256.0 ypg (Ranking: 10)

Scoring: 27.5 ppg (Ranking: 56)

Scoring Defense: 25.2 ppg (Ranking: 57)

New Era Pinstripe Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

Bowl games aren’t new in college football – not in the sense of the concept itself, anyway – but almost every year does manage to create a new game in an increasingly bloated postseason. The latest new event to emerge in late December is a game that event organizers in the Bronx hope will be a Yankee Doodle dandy.

Looking at the offenses on display, that’s not likely to occur. However, this might be an occasion when a low-wattage matchup pales in comparison to the setting and the backdrop. Newness might outstrip low-octane offense.

First, a few words about the game itself: The Kansas State Wildcats haven’t been to a bowl game since 2006. The Syracuse Orange haven’t been to a bowl since 2004. The very first Pinstripe Bowl will have two teams hungry to gain a victory and ramp up for 2011 on a high note.

The Wildcats did just enough to get to a bowl game after a few near-miss campaigns, one of which was a 6-6 season that did not produce bowl eligibility because two of the wins came against FCS opponents (only one FCS win is allowed to be credited to a team’s win total; that’s the nuance you might not have known about before). Coach Bill Snyder – who built the program from scratch roughly two decades ago and made it into a national contender – stepped down but then re-emerged to take the job after the snake-bitten run of former coach Ron Prince. KSU rests its fate on offense by looking to running back Daniel Thomas, a reliable workhorse who moves the chains with blue-collar consistency. Kansas State earned some bare-knuckle wins over Iowa State and UCLA as it moved to the happy side of the .500 divide in 2010.

The Orange got to put on some Pinstripes because of their relentless defense and nothing else. Coach Doug Marrone has kick-started Syracuse football by guiding his alma mater to its first bowl game in six years. Syracuse wasn’t a fun team to observe over the past four months, but it earned a good Saturday result more times than not. Syracuse went 4-0 on the road in the Big East Conference, winning three of those four games while scoring fewer than 20 points in the process, a remarkable mind-bender of a fact. The Orange allowed just 18 points per game, placing them 13th in the United States. Syracuse would have won the Big East if it had done anything at home. The Orange lost all three conference home dates and scored a total of just 40 points in those three games.

This has the makings of a low-scoring defensive game. Thomas and Syracuse running back Delone Carter are the two best offensive players in this game, but they don’t throw passes. Whoever commits fewer turnovers will win; since Syracuse has a slightly better defense and will be playing this game in New York, so that gives them a slight edge.

Ah, the mention of “New York” came about. That’s what makes this game new and perhaps an appealing addition to the postseason. The new Yankee Stadium will host this game a little more than five weeks after staging the Army-Notre Dame regular season meeting (its first-ever football game) on Nov. 20. That game was very well received by the public and the press, although that day’s Wrigley Field game between Illinois and Northwestern stole some publicity. Now, with national-television coverage, Yankee Stadium will once again take center stage, and that could make college football fall in love with this event. We’ll see if the level of football can add to the spectacle at hand.

STAT PACK

Kansas State

Passing Yards Per Game: 172.8 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 97)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 206.0 (Ranking: 20)

Points Per Game: 33.6 (Ranking: 25)

Points Allowed Per Game: 28.5 (Ranking: 74)

Syracuse

Passing: 178.0 ypg (Ranking: 92)

Rushing: 130.3 ypg (Ranking: 88)

Scoring: 21.0 ppg (Ranking: 99)

Scoring Defense: 18.1 ppg (Ranking: 13)

Music City Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

Among the 35 bowl games being played this year, it’s hard to find a better backstory than the one which graces the Music City Bowl, right in the state of Tennessee. Other bowls are more important and several others have sexier matchups, but if you’re simply looking for a good olfd-fashioned country feud and a spicy subtext to a postseason tilt, this headknocker in Nashville is just the thing for you.

The Tennessee Volunteers backed out of a regular-season series with the North Carolina Tar Heels before the 2010 season. Now they can’t avoid North Carolina in the college football postseason. Yes, that’s right – the 2010 offseason was marked by many unsavory events, but one of the more innocuous (but still interesting) happenings was that Tennessee Athletic Director Mike Hamilton, with his program in tatters after the destructive one-year tenure of former coach Lane Kiffin, felt that UT couldn’t compete with a program of North Carolina’s stature. The ultimate irony here is that Carolina – which did indeed look like a top-15 team before the season started, given its abundance of NFL talent on the defensive side of the ball – soon got hit with massive NCAA penalties that took at least 16 Tar Heels from the field, especially prime pass rusher Marvin Austin. UNC and coach Butch Davis were ready to rock and roll, but the program’s many missteps created a decidedly different trajectory.

Indeed, the Tar Heels are likely experiencing mixed emotions after a regular season that produced a winning record (7-5). Davis had to deal with that mountain of suspensions stemming from academic cheating scandals and sports agent-related improprieties that swamped the program. However, those off-field events weren’t the only problems the Tar Heel family had to deal with. North Carolina also lost prime pass-catching tight end Zack Pianalto due to an on-field injury and suffered even more injury-based attrition as the season moved forwarde. The fact that this team was able to pull out seven games with such a depleted roster is a tribute to the team’s resilience and ability. However, the other side of the coin is that if this team had been whole, healthy and eligible for the full extent of the season, it very well could have been the best team in the ACC, better than eventual champion Virginia Tech. This bowl game gives UNC a chance to prove what it can do.

The Volunteers managed to make a bowl game despite having one of the worst teams in recent UT history. The Vols were easily outclassed by Georgia, Florida and South Carolina in their own division, and they got roughed up as well by good teams from Alabama and Oregon. Yet, UT made a bowl game because so many of its other opponents suffered through terrible seasons. Mississippi and Vanderbilt allowed Tennessee to get healthy, and UAB’s field goal kicker missed five separate kicks in a double-overtime game the Vols were lucky to win. This is a young team that’s looking to get better for 2011 and beyond. This isn’t the pinnacle of the team’s developmental arc; it’s only the beginning of a long road back to the (Rocky) Top in college football.

North Carolina has more savvy at quarterback, with T.J. Yates being the grizzled veteran to the young pup that is Tennessee gunslinger Tyler Bray. The Tar Heels have learned how to put many different pieces together because their frontline starters have often been unavailable. That could make the difference against a Tennessee team that has faded in the second half on many occasions this season.

Then again, the Vols – now that they’re playing North Carolina – might want to show their athletic director that they can not only compete with, but take down, the Heels from Tobacco Road.

STAT PACK

North Carolina

Passing Yards Per Game: 266.5 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 25)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 123.6 (Ranking: 95)

Points Per Game: 24.9 (Ranking: 78)

Points Allowed Per Game: 22.9 (Ranking: 46)

Tennessee

Passing: 249.8 ypg (Ranking: 36)

Rushing: 116.1 ypg (Ranking: 100)

Scoring: 27.0 ppg (Ranking: 61)

Scoring Defense: 24.7 ppg (Ranking: 55)

Holiday Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

Does the Love Boat sail near San Diego? It would be more exciting and new than the 2010 Holiday Bowl game. Bowl organizers and Big 12 Conference officials, though, didn’t seem to care a whole lot when they put this game together.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers already whacked the Washington Huskies this year, and by a loud, authoritative scoreboard margin to boot. Now the two schools will meet again in the Holiday Bowl, a weird place to set up a 10-3 division champion from the Big 12 against a 6-6 team from the Pac-10.

The Huskers won the Big 12 North title but then lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma. Nebraska blew a 17-0 lead and frittered away its big chance to move on up, George Jefferson-style, to the Fiesta Bowl game and its high-rent January spotlight against Connecticut. In that sense, the Huskers really have themselves to blame and nobody else. Then again, it needs to be said that Nebraska did not deserve to play Washington one more time. The Huskers crushed the Huskies, 56-21, on Sept. 18 in Seattle. Washington was no match for a healthy Nebraska team that dominated the line of scrimmage and owned the point of attack. This bowl assignment is the Big 12 Conference’s final nasty gesture to Nebraska before the school leaves to join the Big Ten Conference.

The Huskies managed to earn a bowl invitation by winning their final three games of the season. Washington was adrift at 3-6, but Coach Steve Sarkisian’s team scrambled to barely reach the .500 mark and give the program its first bowl game since 2002. It’s hard to comprehend how a program of Washington’s stature could go so long without a bowl; after all, the Huskies won the 1991 national championship (in a split decision with the University of Miami) after crushing Michigan in the 1992 Rose Bowl. Washington was a college football brand name and not some Boise State-like outsider. However, here were the Huskies, seven years removed from a bowl game and needing to break that string. They barely did, but yes is still yes; almost failing doesn’t count on the negative side of the ledger.

UW’s defense was the real star of the team’s late-season surge. The Huskies held UCLA and California to a combined total of just 20 points in two games. Then, Washington was able to ride quarterback Jake Locker to a 35-28 win over Washington State in the season finale. A healthy Locker might make this game interesting, but Washington’s defensive line will have to play a lot better than it did in its first game against Nebraska.

This game might be tantalizing and intriguing only if Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez – who has had a very difficult relationship with head coach Bo Pelini – is either held out of the lineup or decides to sulk before kickoff time. However, those scenarios aren’t likely. Nebraska might not be thrilled to be in this game, but it should trash the Huskies just the same.

Nebraska-Washington Statistical Highlights

Total yards: 533-246, Nebraska.

Rushing yards: 383-175, Nebraska.

Third downs: Nebraska 7-12, Washington 4-14

Time of Possession: Nebraska 34:48, Washington 25:12

Taylor Martinez, Nebraska: 287 total yards; 150 passing, 137 rushing

Roy Helu, Jr., Nebraska: 10 carries, 110 yards, 2 touchdowns

Nebraska scored at least 14 points in each of the first three quarters

STAT PACK

Nebraska:

Passing Yards Per Game: 154.6 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 109)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 259.6 (Ranking: 9)

Points Per Game: 32.7 (Ranking: 28)

Points Allowed Per Game: 17.2 (Ranking: 8)

Armed Forces Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Armed Forces Bowl: Army Black Knights vs. SMU Mustangs (-7, 52)

The Skinny:

Two programs that are trying to recapture the magic from their glory years are meeting in the Armed Forces Bowl this season.

In just three seasons, June Jones has revived the SMU program after it endured a 25-year bowl drought after the “death penalty” in 1986. And the Mustangs (7-6) get to stay at home for this bowl game, as the game will be played on their campus. TCU’s stadium, which usually hosts the game, is currently undergoing renovations. SMU will need a big game from running back Zach Line, who led Conference USA in rushing.

Army (6-6), which won two national titles in the 1940s, is making its first bowl appearance since 1996. The Black Knights hope the Mustangs aren’t used to seeing a triple-option team, and will ride quarterback Trent Steelman and running back Jared Hassin as much as they can.

Point spread:

SMU -7. Over/under 52.

The spread opened at -8 in favor of SMU but has been bet down to a touchdown. The total has remained steady at 52.

SMU’s Edge:

The Mustangs continue to make strides under Jones, a veteran coach with bowl game experience. SMU also has a versatile offense led by quarterback Kyle Padron, running back Zach Line and wide receiver Aldrick Robinson. Thursday's game is being played at SMU's home field at Gerald Ford Field due to renovations at the regular venue at TCU.

Army’s Edge:

Despite losing three of their past four games, the Black Knights have the ability to catch defenses off guard with their triple-option attack. Army has a dynamic duo on offense, too, with Steelman and Hassin leading the way.

The Quarterbacks:

SMU’s Padron has had an inconsistent season, throwing multiple interceptions in four of his 13 games. But he’s also thrown for more than 3,500 yards, and added 254 rushing yards.

For the season, Army’s Steelman has rushed for 620 yards and 11 touchdowns, and thrown for 837 yards and five touchdowns.

NFL prospects:

SMU – WR Aldrick Robinson. Army – DT Michael Gann; OLB Joshua McNary.

Bowl history:

SMU is 5-6-1 all-time in bowl games, including winning last year’s Hawaii Bowl. The Mustangs are in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since the early 1980s, when they went to four bowl games over a five-year stretch from 1980-84.

Army is 2-2 all-time in bowl games, and is in its first since 1996. The last time the Black Knights won a bowl game was 1985, when they held on for a 31-29 victory over Illinois in the Peach Bowl.

Etc.:

The Armed Forces Bowl has already announced a sellout for the game. … Army has played one bowl game in the state of Texas, the 1988 Sun Bowl where the Black Knights fell to Alabama, 29-28. … All three service academies are playing in bowl games this year. … Army and SMU have met twice before, with Army winning both games.

Weather:

The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and strong-to-medium winds blowing south of up to speeds of 20 mph, from end zone to end zone. Game-time tempertures will be in the low 70s.

Trends:

- Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.
- Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
- Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
- Over is 6-0 in Black Knights' last six non-conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Mustangs' last five games overall.

Pinstripe Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse Orange vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+1, 48)

The Skinny:

Kansas State and Syracuse both ended bowl droughts and will face off in the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 30 in Yankee Stadium.

The Wildcats (7-5) are bowl eligible for the first time since 2006 while the Orange (7-5) are playing in their first bowl since 2004.

Kansas State and Syracuse have played each other in bowl games twice before. The Wildcats won the 1997 Fiesta Bowl and the Orange triumphed in the 2001 Insight.com Bowl.

Syracuse lost its last two games and three of its last four in the regular season. Kansas State started the season 4-0 but came back to earth. The Wildcats dropped four of their last six games and snapped a two-game skid with a season-ending victory over North Texas.

Point Spread:

Syracuse -1. Over/under -- 48.

Kansas State’s edge:

The run game. Kansas State has an experienced offensive line that was able to open holes for senior Daniel Thomas to run through most of the season. Thomas was the nation’s ninth-leading rusher with a 124.6-yard average per game and must be licking his chops watching tape of Syracuse allowing Boston College’s second-string rusher to run for 206 yards.

Thomas finished second in the Big 12 with 1,495 rushing yards and tied for the conference lead with 16 touchdowns. He ran for a career-high 269 yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries at North Texas on Nov. 27.

Syracuse’s Edge:

Pass defense. Syracuse owns the toughest pass defense in the Big East Conference, allowing 157.6 yards allowed per game. The Orange really buckled down against the pass in their final three games, allowing 106.3 in their final three games.

The Quarterbacks: Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib is coming off a rough performance in the Orange’s regular-season finale against Boston College. Syracuse managed just five first downs and 98 yards of total offense, while Nassib was 5-of-10 for 55 yards.

Nassib started the season well but never really built on it, finishing with 2,095 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Carson Coffman threw for 1,832 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. He completed 62 percent of his passes and was sacked 24 times. Coffman was sacked four or more times in four games this season.

NFL Prospects:

Kansas State: RB Daniel Thomas. Syracuse: RB Delone Carter.

Bowl History:

The Orange is 12-9-1 in bowl games and is 3-2 in bowl games against Big 12 opponents, including a 26-3 victory against Kansas State in the 2001 Insight.com Bowl.

Kansas State has a bowl record of 6-7 and is making just its second appearance in seven years; it once went to bowls in 11 consecutive seasons under coach Bill Snyder. That 11-year run was snapped following a 2003 loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Etc: There hasn’t been an NCAA bowl game in the Bronx since the Gotham Bowl on Dec. 15, 1962, when Nebraska edged Miami 36-34. Kansas State has only played in the state of New York twice, and not since 1966.

Weather:

It will be a beautiful day in the Bronx Thursday with the forecast calling for clear skies, light winds and game-time temperatures in the low 30s.

Trends:

- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
- Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
- Over is 4-0 in Wildcats' last four games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Orange's last six games overall.

Music City Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Music City Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-1, 50)

The Skinny:

This appears to be an even matchup of teams that have overcome a variety of obstacles. Tennessee sat at 2-6 two months ago, but won its last four games by an average of 24 points to finish 6-6. The young Volunteers struggled early in the season under first-year coach Derek Dooley but battled in every game, including a 16-13 loss to highly-ranked LSU on the last play of the game.

North Carolina suspended 15 players for the season opener and three of them – potential first-round picks – didn’t play a down all season. The Heels lost their first two games and two of their last three, finishing 7-5. They were a Top 25 preseason pick but needed a narrow 24-19 win over last-place Duke in the season finale to finish above .500.

Point spread:

North Carolina -1. Over/under – 50.

The spread has moved slightly with action on UT, going from 1.5 to 1. The total has remained steady at 50 points.

Tennessee’s Edge:

The Volunteers played their best football down the stretch. They beat Mississippi by 38 points and held a Kentucky team that averaged 33 points to two touchdowns in a 24-14 win. Their late-season surge was sparked by freshman quarterback Tyler Bray, who is surrounded by a talented group of receivers, including Denarius Moore and Gerald Jones. Also fueling the win streak, the defense didn’t allow more than 14 points in any of the last four games.

North Carolina’s Edge:

The Tar Heels, too, possess a potent passing attack led by T.J. Yates, yet their biggest edge may be their experience. This is nothing new for coach Butch Davis and the Heels, playing in their third straight bowl game. The 23-year old Yates is a battle-tested senior. North Carolina also has a slight edge in total defense, with some proven standouts at linebacker and in the secondary. North Carolina will be without running back Anthony Elzy, who was left behind after failing to meet the expectations of the program. Elzy rushed 296 yards and and two scores while catching 25 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Quarterbacks:

Bray ignited the Volunteers from the moment he took the starting job. In his first start he threw for five touchdowns in the first half. Bray averaged 333 yards and three touchdowns per game in his four starts. Tennessee averaged nearly 250 yards passing a game (36th in the country) and that number likely would’ve been considerably higher had Bray started all year.

A four-year starter, Yates has racked up more than 9,100 passing yards in his career, including 3,184 yards and 18 touchdowns this season for North Carolina. Yates threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns against Florida State and 412 against LSU, one of the top defenses in the country. The Heels averaged 266 passing yards (25th).

NFL Prospects:

Tennessee – LB Chris Walker; TE Luke Stocker. North Carolina – LB Bruce Carter; LB Quan Sturdivant; CB Charles Brown; QB T.J. Yates.

Bowl history:

Tennessee is 25-23 all-time. The Vols lost 37-14 to Virginia Tech in the 2009 Chick-Fil-A Bowl and in 2008 beat Wisconsin 21-17 in the Outback Bowl.

North Carolina is 12-15 all-time. The Heels have lost their last three bowls, including a 19-17 loss to Pittsburgh in the 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl. Their last bowl win was the 2001 Peach Bowl, a 16-10 win over Auburn.

Etc.: This matchup comes several months earlier than originally anticipated. Tennessee and North Carolina were scheduled to meet in 2011 and 2012 but the Volunteers backed out of the home-and-away series. It’s the first matchup of these teams from bordering states since 1961.

Weather:

The forecast in Nashville is calling for morning showers which will let up in the afternoon, giving way to cloudy skies and winds of 15 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Trends:

- Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. SEC.
- Volunteers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
- Under is 6-1 in Tar Heels' last seven games as favorites.
- Under is 5-1 in Volunteers' last six bowl games.

Holiday Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Holiday Bowl: Washington Huskies vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (-14, 52.5)

The Skinny:

The Cornhuskers fell to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, and then plummeted in the bowl selections. They face a Washington team that at 6-6 is barely bowl eligible. These two teams have already met this year, with the Huskies taking a home beating 56-21 in September.

Nebraska is a heavy favorite again, despite losing two of its last three in heartbreaking fashion to end the season. Close losses to Texas A&M and the Sooners landed the Cornhuskers in the Holiday Bowl for the second straight year.

Washington is just happy to have another game. The Huskies ran off three straight wins to close the season.

Point Spread:

Nebraska -14. Over/under – 52.5.

The spread has moved for -13 to two touchdowns while the total has remained steady at 52.5 at most books.

Nebraska’s Edge:

Running and pass defense; these strengths have carried the Huskers through the regular season. Nebraska will field the 10th best rushing game in the nation – an attack that rolled up 383 yards the first time these two teams met. The Huskers’ pass defense ranks fifth in the nation and feasted on Washington quarterback Jake Locker last time, holding him to 71 yards and two interceptions. The game ended any talk of Heisman consideration for the senior.

Washington’s Edge:

Running back Chris Polk comes in averaging 103 yards per game, and is fresh off a 284-yard performance against Washington State. He will be running into the weakest part of the Husker defense. Nebraska ranks 52nd against the run, and had issues stopping Polk early in their first matchup.

The Quarterbacks:

Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez has had a roller coaster of a freshman season. His exceptional speed dazzled the Husker faithful early, but injuries and some questionable judgment have led to his fall from grace in Lincoln. His costly interceptions and inability to avoid sacks in the Oklahoma game may have cost his team a place in the Fiesta Bowl.

Washington’s Locker has endured a difficult season. He was being projected as a first-round pick when the season began, but thanks in part to his performance against the Huskers that hype quickly died away. Still, Locker had a respectable year, throwing for 2,207 yards with 17 touchdowns. He was injured in the Stanford game and was unable to go against Oregon, effectively ruining his chances to perform against the two best teams in the Pac-10.

NFL Prospects:

Nebraska – CB Prince Amukamara; DE Jared Crick; LB Lavonte David; K Alex Henery. Washington – QB Jake Locker; LB Mason Foster, RB Chris Polk

Bowl history:

Nebraska is 24-22 all-time in bowls, and has won its only two bowls with current coach Bo Pelini – including a Holiday Bowl win last year.

Washington has 14-14-1 bowl record, and has lost all three of its Holiday Bowl appearances. This is the Huskies’ second bowl appearance under coach Steve Sarkisian.

Etc.:

Psychological advantage could go to Washington. The Huskies are just happy to be bowl eligible, and they have revenge as an added incentive. Nebraska is still licking its wounds after missing out on a BCS bid and getting passed over for Missouri to play neighboring Iowa in the Insight Bowl.

Weather:

The forecast for San Diego is calling for rain and strong winds reaching speed of 30 mph, with game-time temperatures in the mid 50s.

Trends:

- Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
- Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in Huskies' last four vs. Big 12.
- Under is 6-1 in Cornhuskers' last seven Bowl games.

Thursday's Early Tilts
By Judd Hall

Gamblers looking to get an early start to betting will be in luck on Thursday with two games starting before they even leave the office. We’ll open up in Dallas, then we head up to chilly New York City for the first bowl game at the new Yankee Stadium. Let’s look at both of these early tilts.

Armed Forces Bowl

Offenses from both ends of the spectrum will be on hand when Army (6-6 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) takes on the Mustangs on their home turf at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas. Southern Methodist (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) comes into this game as a seven-point “chalk” with a total of 52. The Black Knights are currently listed at plus-240 (risk $100 to win $240) on the money line for the outright win.

For the Cadets, this is their first trip to a bowl game since the 1996 season. And that feat is due in no small part to the work of Rich Ellerson. He’s fine tuned the triple-option attack Stan Brock implemented. Army is 10th in the nation with a rushing game that is picking up 256.0 YPG. Jared Hassin has been the main option to rush with 921 yards and nine touchdowns. But quarterback Trent Steelman is the real architect on the field. Steelman has thrown for 965 yards and rushed for another 579 yards with 18 scores.

Army isn’t stuck with being a gimmick running game as its defense is quite good. The Black Knights’ stoppers only give up 332.0 YPG to rank 27th nationally. But there could be some dents in the armor, so to speak. The Cadets have lost their last two games by a combined score of 58-20. And their defense has surrendered 694 yards in that time. That is one of the thing Ellerson has been worried about with his young team is not stepping up in big games. Those last two losses were against Notre Dame and Navy. Add in a 42-22 beating at the hands of Air Force and there is reason to genuinely worry about this game.

The Mustangs are coming into this game having seen their offense lay a massive egg against Central Florida in the C-USA title game. Before that, however, this team was dropping 31 points on Marshall and 45 against East Carolina. That’s pretty typical of the Run and Shoot attack that June Jones employs with his offense.

Kyle Padron has improved on his freshman effort with 3,526 passing yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 picks. His last start leaves a lot to be desired as he connected on just 18-of-34 passes for 220 yards with one score and two interceptions against UCF, which has Conference USA’s best defense.

Should Padron stall, don’t be shocked if Jones heads to the ground. While that sounds counterproductive to his usual play calling, it has been successful for the Mustangs. Zach Line has averaged 107.0 YPG on the ground this season to rank 15th against all rushers in the country.

Southern Methodist doesn’t truly need to worry about the passing attack in this game. What they will need to worry about is how to stop the run, which they are giving up 140.6 rushing YPG. The Mustangs have some experience against this type of running game, having lost 28-21 to Navy earlier in the year. The Midshipmen gained 253 yards on the ground in that game.

This game is normally played at Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, but TCU is renovating the facilities. That gave SMU a chance to bring the game on campus this year. So we’re going to be able to handle this game as a straight home and road battle for trends.

Army has been a good road pup over the last two seasons with a 3-2 SU record, but are 5-0 ATS in that stretch. When they take on C-USA clubs on the road, the Black Knights are 3-10 SU and 9-4 ATS since 2003.

SMU has a great team as a home favorite, evidenced by a 4-1 SU mark. Gamblers couldn’t care less about them in this respect since they’re just 2-3 ATS. Over the last two seasons, the Mustangs are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS when listed as no more than seven-point favorites with the ‘under’ going 4-2.

Pinstripe Bowl

The Bronx isn’t exactly the place people would expect to have a bowl game, but that’s what we’ve got on Thursday afternoon as Kansas State (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) takes on the Orange in the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

This game is too close to call for most of the sportsbooks listing it as a pick ‘em, but you can find Syracuse (7-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) posted as a one-point favorite with a total of 48.

The Wildcats are in their second go-round with Bill Snyder at the helm and they’re back bowling. K-State opened up with four wins, but stumbled from then on with a 3-5 record. Daniel Thomas has been one of the better untold stories in the country by rushing for 1,471 yards and 16 touchdowns. What’s even more surprising is that he’s doing it in a league that is more recognized for passing the ball than pounding it out on the ground anymore.

Syracuse being in this spot is nothing short of a miracle after the depths they reached in the Big East’s basement. As great as things are for the Orange making a bowl game, they do enter this game having dropped three of their last four tests.

The Orange are bolstered by a two-back running game that highlights Delone Carter and Antown Bailey. Carter was able to rush for 1,010 yards and seven scores, while Bailey picked up another 489 yards and a pair of touchdowns. And they’ll get a chance to shine on Thursday afternoon with K-State giving up 229 yards on average to opposing ground attacks.

Defense is where the ‘Cuse hangs it hat to win games this season. They are giving up 295.0 total YPG this season to rank fifth in the nation. And you’re not going to pass on them much since the Orange allow 157.6 YPG through the air…good enough for sixth among the nation’s best pass defenses.

We have no history on this bowl game to pull trends from, which isn’t a good way to start. And these two teams split the past two meetings, the last being in 2001.

What we can pick up is the fact that the Wildcats are not good against Big East squads. Kansas State is 1-4 SU and ATS when taking on that conference, that number of course includes the two bouts against the Orange.

Don’t get all hopped up on Syracuse for this game either as they’re just 1-2 SU and ATS against Big XII clubs.

The Orange are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last five games listed anywhere from a pick ‘em to three-point favorites. The ‘under’ was 4-2 during that stretch. K-State, on the other hand, was 5-5 SU and 7-2-1 ATS when posted from a pick ‘em and a three-point pup since 1996.

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Thursday's Prime-Time Tips
By Brian Edwards

There’s no end in sight to bets and ballgames galore for gamblers this week. On Thursday, we’ve got four games on tap in college football and we’re ready to break down the two that’ll be played under the lights.

**North Carolina vs. Tennessee**

Tennessee (6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) lost six of its first eight games and appeared to be in the midst of one of the school’s worst seasons in decades. But first-year head coach Derek Dooley turned to true freshman quarterback Tyler Bray, who responded by winning all four of his starts to lead the Volunteers into the postseason picture. Bray threw for 323 yards or more in three of his four starts, posting a 12/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

For the Music City Bowl in Nashville, most betting shops have installed North Carolina (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) as a one-point favorite with a total of 50.

Butch Davis’s team was engulfed in controversy before the season even began. In the weeks leading up to its opener against LSU at the Ga. Dome, UNC had 14 players that were suspended. Seven players missed the entire season, including three – DE Marvin Austin, DE Robert Quinn and CB Charles Brown – who are most likely going to be first-round draft picks. Nevertheless, the Tar Heels were competitive all year (beaten by double digits just twice) and are going bowling for a third consecutive season.

UNC senior QB T.J. Yates has enjoyed his best season despite missing many of his weapons at various times due to injuries and suspensions. Yates has completed 67.6 percent of his throws for 3,184 yards with an 18/8 TD-INT ratio. He had an uncharacteristic four picks in a 26-10 loss to Va. Tech, so Yates obviously had just four interceptions in the 11 other games.

North Carolina finished the regular season on a 1-5 ATS slide. The Tar Heels closed the year with a 24-19 non-covering win at Duke as 8 ½-point road favorites. Yates connected on 28-of-35 passes for 264 yards and one touchdown without an interception. RB Anthony Elzy rushed for 116 yards and one TD on 23 carries.

Elzy has been suspended for this game for disciplinary reasons and starting OG Alan Pelc is ‘out’ with a shoulder injury. LB Bruce Carter is also ‘out’ with a torn ACL.

Tennessee beat Kentucky for the 26th straight time in its regular-season finale. The Vols captured a 24-14 win as 2 ½-point home favorites. Bray threw for 354 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Senior WR Denarious Moore made the most of his farewell performance at Neyland Stadium, hauling in seven receptions for 205 yards and a TD.

Moore had 43 catches for 912 yards and nine TDs during the regular season. Tauren Poole was UT’s leading rusher. The junior RB had 994 rushing yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

The ‘over’ has cashed at an 8-3 overall clip for Tennessee even though the ‘under’ prevailed in its last two games.

The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run for UNC.

UNC and UT were scheduled to have a home-and-away series in 2011 and 2012, but the Vols pulled out of the games earlier this year. These schools haven’t met since 1961.

Tennessee got trounced 37-14 by Va. Tech at last year’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. As for UNC, it has lost a pair of heartbreakers the last two postseasons. In the 2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl, the Tar Heels lost a 31-30 decision to West Va. as two-point underdogs. Then last year at the same bowl, Pitt beat UNC by a 19-17 score.

Kick-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Washington vs. Nebraska**

The Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego is a rematch of a regular-season meeting that was one-sided. Most books are listing Nebraska (10-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 53. Bettors can take the Huskies on the money line for an attractive plus-425 payout (risk $100 to win $425).

Washington (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) won three in a row both SU and ATS to qualify for its first bowl game in eight years. The Huskies beat Washington St. 35-28 as 5 ½-point road favorites in their regular-season finale. Chris Polk ran for 284 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries, while Jake Locker threw for a pair of TDs and rushed for another.

Nebraska is coming off a 23-20 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cornhuskers couldn’t take advantage of an early 17-0 lead, but they covered the number for their backers as 4 ½-point underdogs.

These schools met at Husky Stadium in Week 3 with Nebraska cruising to a 56-21 win as a three-point road favorite. The 77 combined points leaped ‘over’ the 51-point total. It was total domination from the Huskers, who out-yarded UW by a 535-246 margin. Nebraska forced Locker into an awful performance, as he was only able to connect on 4-of-20 pass attempts for merely 71 yards. The ‘Huskers intercepted Locker twice, while QB Taylor Martinez rushed for 137 yards and three TDs. Martinez had a TD pass as well Roy Helu had 110 rushing yards and two TDs on just 10 carries.

Bo Pelini’s team was listed as a double-digit favorite eight different times this year, compiling an abysmal 2-5-1 spread record. On the flip side, Washington has a 2-4 SU record and a 2-3-1 ATS mark in six games as an underdog. The Huskies lost 53-16 at Oregon in their lone game as double-digit ‘dogs, leaving their backers with a push.

Locker has a 17/9 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for five touchdowns. He has 28 career rushing TDs. Polk has rushed for 1,238 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC.

Martinez has rushed for 942 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 6.4 YPC. He hasn’t been as efficient through the air with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio. Helu has rushed for a team-high 1,211 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 6.8 YPC.

Nebraska has won both of its bowl games on Pelini’s watch. The ‘Huskers beat Clemson 26-21 at the 2008 Gator Bowl and stroked Arizona 33-0 at last year’s Holiday Bowl.

For those who put an emphasis on motivational edges, Washington has to look attractive as the prohibitive underdog. For starters, the Huskies are stoked to be in a bowl game for the first time since 2002. They also have the revenge angle and will surely be inspired to send Locker, the senior signal caller who returned to school and hurt his draft stock in doing so, out on a winning note. On the other hand, Nebraska barely missed out on a BCS game, settling instead for a game against a 6-6 squad that it destroyed on the road already this season.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for both schools. Nebraska has seen the ‘over’ hit in three straight games.

ESPN will have the telecast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

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