Beginning with the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, Dec. 19 and continuing through the BCS title game in Pasadena, Jan. 7, college football betting followers have 34 opportunities to end the season with fattened wallets.
Of course, we're a bit more discerning than that, selecting just seven wagering plays from the post-season betting schedule. As always, we'll be conducting our annual experiment to see whether the cold, hard arithmetic of the Sagarin Ratings can take down the more nuanced Las Vegas pointspread.
In case you've forgotten, the Sagarin Ratings are developed by Jeff Sagarin, a Seattle-based computer geek whose analysis is part of BCS calculations. Sagarin, who also contributes to USA TODAY, develops his figures based strictly on team performance while Las Vegas oddsmakers, in addition to using numerical Power Ratings, also consider factors such as motivation, playing style and matchups in their calculations.
Let's look at the plays:
Thursday, Dec. 24
HAWAII BOWL, Honolulu
SMU (+14 1/2) over Nevada: The Mustangs have a Sagarin Rating of 66.24 while the Wolf Pack checks in with a rating of 73.61. That means that according to Sagarin, Nevada is 7.37 points superior to SMU. So, if you take SMU, you're getting over a touchdown and extra point more than the raw data says you deserve. What's more, SMU was 6-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this year.
Sunday, Dec. 27
MUSIC CITY BOWL, Nashville
Kentucky (+7 1/2) over Clemson: With a Sagarin Rating of 81.34, Clemson is 4.10 points better than Kentucky, at 77.24. But the line is 7 1/2, meaning you're "stealing" more than a field goal with the Wildcats. Additionally, Kentucky was 5-0 ATS away from their home field, including 3-0 as a road underdog. You also have to figure that the Tigers, who would have played in a BCS bowl had they beaten Georgia Tech in the ACC title game, won't be nearly as happy to be in Nashville as the Wildcats, who never had any aspirations of winning the SEC Championship.
Thursday, Dec. 31
Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
Air Force (+7) over Houston: This is a third straight example where the favorite isn't worth the number against the underdog. In this one, Houston has a Sagarin Rating of 75.98 to 73.76 for Air Force, a difference of just 2.22 points. So take the seven with the Falcons who will be seeking revenge after losing to Houston in last year's Armed Forces Bowl, 34-28.
Sun Bowl, El Paso
Stanford (+9) over Oklahoma: If you believe in "best bets" then this is it. According to the Sagarin Ratings, the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite! Sagarin pegs the Cardinal at 82.15 while the Sooners get a number of 80.96. So Stanford should be a 1-point favorite. Instead, you get the Cardinal +9, a swing of 10 points. Stanford hasn't been to a bowl game since 2001 but Oklahoma has failed to cover it last five bowl games.
Friday, Jan. 1
Capital One Bowl, Orlando
LSU (+3) over Penn State: Sorry oddsmakers but once again Sagarin says you have the wrong favorite. The number-cruncher puts LSU at 85.66 and Penn State at 81.53, meaning that Sagarin believes the Tigers should be a 4-point favorite over the Nittany Lions. But Penn State is favored by three, a touchdown turnaround. LSU has covered four straight bowl games while Penn State is 2-2 ATS in that same time span.
Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Cincinnati (+10 1/2) over Florida: Admittedly, this one takes courage, especially since the Sagarin Ratings do not take into account any impact Cincinnati Coach Brian Kelly's move to Notre Dame will have on the psyche of the Bearcats. By the raw numbers, Florida has a Sagarin Rating of 93.71 to 88.27 for Cincinnati, a difference of about five points. So you're getting an extra five points with Cincinnati, a team that has little difficulty scoring.
Monday Jan. 4
Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ.
Boise State (+7) over TCU: It would have been nice to test these two unbeaten teams against BCS outfits but the matchup still packs wagering intrigue. With a Sagarin Rating of 89.56, the Horned Frogs are about a field goal superior to Boise State, at 86.63. But at +7 you're getting more than double that so the play is the Broncos, who were 8-4 ATS this year. TCU was 8-3 ATS so each team has been friendly to bettors. These same two teams met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl with TCU (-3) winning but not covering against Boise State, 17-16.
Picking your spots on the 34-game schedule could mean a successful conclusion to the 2009 college football betting season.
RESCUE, email us dude, I want to give you a tshirt. Click the link at the top of the page or help @ thespread.com direct
thanks rescue. You and 4Frogster have been a lot of help in the whole Bowl set up. Like all of them, but wonder about the Sugar Bowl now. Urban Meyer is up to something to try and get his boys more motivated I think. have to wait and see how they react to his announcment.