Atlanta Falcons Preview
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
What can the Falcons do for an encore, other than getting to the Super Bowl? That's what callers to Buck Belue and John Kincade's popular sports talk show on 680 The Fan were asking in the Showcase City of the South after Atlanta's unexpected run to the playoffs last year, one that certainly didn't figure back in September when the Falcons were preparing for their first season with not only a new head coach, former Jags d.c. Mike Smith, but also a rookie starting QB, Boston College's Matt Ryan. Such combinations are usually expected to post losing records and secure a high selection for the following spring's draft, not barge into the postseason.
But excuse longtime Falcon fans for being a bit wary of that whole encore business following last season's unexpected wild card berth. Atlantans who have been around town long enough to remember the place before there was much development beyond the I-285 perimeter also know what has happened to their football team whenever big things are expected. That's because the Falcons have never posted consecutive winning records. Not after Norm Van Brocklin's winning teams in 1971 and '73, or Steve Bartkowski-led playoff runs in 1978 & '80, or playoff teams under Jerry Glanville in 1991 and June Jones in '95, or, most famously, Dan Reeves' Super Bowl squad in '98 that dipped to 5-11 in '99. Michael Vick's playoff teams in 2002 & '04 couldn't get above .500 the next year, either.
Optimists in town, however, believe that the organization has progressed a long way from its past disarray, and cite not only the impact of HC Smith, but also that of shrewd GM Thomas Dimitroff, together able to quickly alter the Atlanta football culture. Indeed, there finally seems to be a coherent blueprint at the Georgia Dome. But before getting too excited, consider that the Falcs were uncommonly blessed last season. Injuries were only a minor factor, and most of the close decisions fell in Atlanta's favor (indeed, six of the Falcons' 11 wins were by a TD or less).
But last campaign's success wasn't an accident, either. At HC Smith's behest, o.c. Mike Mularkey installed a power running attack while favoring a vertical aerial game designed to take shots down the field. The FA addition of ex-Charger RB Michael Turner was key, providing the power Smith and Mularkey sought, and then some, as Turner ranked second in NFL rushing behind only the Vikings' Adrian Peterson when gaining a whopping 1699 YR and scoring 17 TDs. Indeed, the Falcs were 9-0 in games when "The Burner" rushed for at least 96 yards, and 2-6 in games he didn't. Meanwhile, Ryan demonstrated the sort of poise at QB for a rookie that had been reserved only by past examples such as Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger, completing 61% for 3440 yards and, most importantly, making few mistakes (only 11 picks).
Prospects for 2009 are encouraging, especially after Dimitroff added an important piece that was missing from last year's puzzle-a TE who can do more than block. And he couldn't have done much better than Kansas City's longtime Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez, who arrived in a trade after posting more huge numbers (96 catches and 10 TDs) in '08. A second-round pick next season was a steep price to pay for an aging TE, but Gonzalez obviously has some tread left on his tires. Moreover, it indicates that Dimitroff & Smith aren't going to stay content with their one-year turnaround, while Ryan's accuracy likely jumps to 66-68% from last year's 61%. With Gonzalez now a prime threat underneath, former first-round pick WR Roddy White should continue his emergence as one of the league's best deep threats (career-best 88 catches a year ago).
With the trade for Gonzalez answering the only glaring offensive need, Dimitroff went almost completely for defense in the draft, hoping to plug gaps in a platoon that lost some significant leadership and talent (including CB Domonique Foxworth, SS Lawyer Milloy, DT Grady Jackson, and LBs Michael Boley & Keith Brooking-whew!) in free agency. HC Smith, who prefers bulky DTs who occupy blockers so the LBs can roam freely, addressed Jackson's departure by nabbing Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry in the first round. Second-round pick William Moore (Missouri) will compete for Milloy's abandoned SS spot, with later picks such as San Jose State CB Chris Owens and Richmond DE Richard Sidbury providing more depth and flexibility for Smith's basic 4-3, Cover-2 zone defense. But since the Falcs don't blitz much, they need to find some pass rush help for DE John Abraham (161/2 sacks); former first-round DE Jamaal Anderson has to do better than the 2 sacks he recorded LY.
Bottom line...Forgive us for being a bit reluctant to jump on the Falcon bandwagon, and not just because we've been around to see all of Atlanta's past disappointments. Rather, we're more than a bit concerned about a "D" that was ravaged in free agency. And frankly, it's the nature of the NFL for teams to often regress after pulling a big surprise. We hate to make Ryan prove himself again before we're sold, but that's our inclination.