AT&T Cotton Bowl News and Notes

Cotton Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

For the first time ever, the Cotton Bowl game – in only its second year at a stadium not called the Cotton Bowl – will be played at night. Will the two teams involved in this postseason classic be able to handle the prime-time spotlight?

The Cotton Bowl game made its reputation as being the midday jewel of the New Year’s Day lineup. Just before 1 o’clock in the afternoon in Dallas, the Southwest Conference champion would play a big-league opponent from another corner of the country, making the first day of the new year sing with significance and sizzle. That part of the Cotton Bowl no longer exists, as the game has sadly lost its full measure of relevance in the college football world. However, it has to be said that since the game has moved to Cowboys Stadium, the gleaming new ballpark in the Dallas suburb of Arlington, it has a chance to become a part of the BCS bowl rotation in the future.

This year, with Cowboys Stadium – aka, JerryWorld – hosting Super Bowl XLV in a few months, this game (televised by the same network, FOX, that will broadcast the Supe) has been moved to a nighttime viewing window. FOX is treating this event as a dry run for the even bigger NFL event on February 6. The only question left is if Texas A&M and LSU are ready to perform in a Cotton-pickin’ collision that might feel a lot more significant than it actually is.

The Texas A&M Aggies flirted with joining the Southeastern Conference in the 2010 offseason. Now, they’ll play the LSU Tigers in the Cotton Bowl. This game might not be special for LSU, but upon further analysis and reflection, it’s an important occasion for the Aggie program, which faces a substantial manhood-making moment inside Jerry Jones’ big ballpark.

First, a word about LSU. The Tigers overcame a lot of their own mistakes to win 10 games and earn this upper-tier (though not top-shelf) bowl bid. LSU fell to Auburn and Arkansas on the road, but the Bayou Bengals never stumbled at home and were able to win a wild and wacky affair at Florida as well, thanks to a fortuitous bounce on a fake field goal in the final minute of play. Coach Les Miles made many typically dumb game-management moves, one of which should have resulted in a loss at home to Tennessee, but the Vols had 13 men on the field during the Tigers’ final play of regulation, so LSU got one more untimed down and was able to score a winning touchdown in a 16-14 Houdini act. Without that one sequence of events, LSU might be playing in the Gator Bowl instead of the Cotton. As it is, LSU’s season could have been much worse than it turned out to be.

The Aggies were floundering in the middle of their season. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson had thrown four interceptions in two separate games, and coach Mike Sherman was skating on very thin ice in College Station. A&M had high hopes at the beginning of the year, and a 3-3 start was no way to give the program added leverage after its midsummer flirtation with the SEC. However, Sherman then made the move that transformed his team’s season. A&M went to backup quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who was not as athletic as Johnson but made far better decisions. A&M stopped committing turnovers and functioned much better as an offense. The Aggies won their final six contests, taking down Oklahoma and Texas in the process. That’s always a good year for A&M’s fan base.

This should be a close game, but LSU has more weapons and more athleticism at most positions. If LSU commits turnovers – which it has been known to do on many occasions – A&M will win, but as long as LSU can display reasonably good ball security and not make mistakes in really crucial situations (such as red-zone situations), the Tigers will put themselves in position to succeed. Buckle up and get ready, folks, for just another typical Les Miles thrill ride of unrestrained unpredictability.

STAT PACK

LSU

Passing Yards Per Game: 155.4 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 107)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 179.2 (Ranking: 32)

Points Per Game: 28.8 (Ranking: 50)

Points Allowed Per Game: 17.8 (Ranking: 9)

Texas A&M

Passing: 281.8 ypg (Ranking: 18)

Rushing: 165.8 ypg (Ranking: 43)

Scoring: 31.8 ppg (Ranking: 37)

Scoring Defense: 20.3 ppg (Ranking: 27)

Cotton Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall

The pickings are awfully slim for gamblers in college football as we gear up for the BCS title game on Monday night. But we’re going to get one last quality matchup on Friday when LSU (10-2 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) takes on the much improved Aggies in the Cotton Bowl Classic from Cowboys Stadium at 8:00 p.m. EST on Fox.

Les Miles has been known for making some rather dubious play calls and some of the worst clock management ever witnessed. But he had won big in bowl games, so that seemed to pacify the Tigers faithful. Last season closed with a 4-4 mark and there were rumblings that Miles would have to have a quality year in 2010. LSU did just that with a 10-2 campaign to find itself in this game. Plus, the Bayou Bengals’ defeats to Auburn and Arkansas were by a combined 15 points.

LSU isn’t going to set the world on fire with its offense, having averaged just 332.6 yards per game in total offense. However, Miles does have a strong running to make things move by gaining 177.2 YPG on the ground. Steven Ridley paces the Tigers on the ground with 1,007 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. You can’t forget about Jordan Jefferson, who has rushed for 237 yards and six scores while lining up under center.

It’s a good thing that Jefferson can move the ball with his legs because he can’t do it with his arm. LSU is 107th in the country with 155.4 YPG through the air. And Jefferson has thrown nine interceptions to just four touchdowns. I will say that the junior signal caller has done better over his last four games with just one pick. Basically the Tigers are just hoping that he doesn’t screw up too much for their defense not to win the game.

The Tigers are one of the nation’s best defensive teams, surrendering just 301.7 YPG in total defense. Plus, they are in the Top 10 when it comes to scoring defense (17.8 points per game) and against the pass (165.8 YPG). LSU also has two of the best QB killers in college football in defensive tackle Drake Nevis and linebacker Ryan Baker, who have combined for 12 sacks.

Texas A&M (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) will have to keep an eye on those two if they want a chance to win this game. The Aggies come into the game having closed out the regular season with six straight wins, covering the number on each occasion. A lot of their success can be attributed to Mike Sherman putting Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback over the mistake-prone Jerrod Johnson. Tannehill has connected on 65 percent of his passes for 1,434 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

The Aggies aren’t held to just throwing the ball right now as Cyrus Gray emerged as a rushing force as the season progressed. Gray finished up the season with 135.8 rushing YPG over the last six games of the year.

Sherman’s team will make LSU earn its rushing yards on Friday night as they’ve allowed just 117.0 YPG this year to rank 15th nationally. If you’re looking for a reason why the Aggies have been a success this year, this is it. As good as Texas A&M is against the run, they are laughable on pass defense. This unit is getting lit up for 240.5 YPG via the skies, but they’re taking on a horrible pass attack.

Those mismatches on offense and defense has made this a very close test at the betting window. Most sportsbooks have installed the Tigers as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 49. Gamblers wanting to take the Aggies for the outright win can do so for a plus-110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

While the Aggies might seem like a good wager here, the recent history of this game tells the opposite. SEC schools have gone 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS over the last seven years in this game. Bettors would do well to take a look at the ‘under’ as well since it is 6-1 in those tests as well.

Texas A&M has not had very much luck against the SEC over the years, evidenced by the fact that that they are 0-5 SU and ATS since 2000. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in those games.

LSU has been almost automatic when listed as a favorite over the last two years with a 15-1 SU mark. Against the spread, however, they are just 6-9-1 and failed to cover in three of its last four as the “chalk.”

vegasinsider.com

Cotton Bowl Betting Preview: LSU vs Texas A&M
By: Willie Bee

Many a January 1st have I timed my first Bloody Mary with the Cotton Bowl kickoff. A plate from our traditional New Year's nosh spread, a tall glass of dog's hair, the sound of Lindsey Nelson's voice still in my head and all seems right in the world.

And so it was I felt a bit lost last Saturday with no Cotton Bowl to begin my year. Instead of an early-lunch cocktail I was pouring tomato juice and vodka to go with my black-eyed peas and breakfast taco. No doubt my drinking schedule has been thrown off for the entire year.

The 75th edition of the Cotton Bowl finally kicks off Friday night at Cowboys Stadium when the LSU Tigers face my, er, the Texas A&M Aggies. Kickoff is set for just after 5 p.m. (PT), and FOX will provide the broadcast, the network's only bowl telecast this season.

Patrick PetersonIt's also the first time in my lifetime that I can remember the game being played under lights which means martinis instead of Bloody Marys, even more drinkus interruptus for 2011.

Friday's line opened and remains LSU favored by a single point. Likewise, the total sits on 49 where it started at shops like DSI.

While the Cotton Bowl celebrates its 75th contest, the Aggies, Tigers matchup is the 50th between the two schools. LSU holds a 26-23-3 edge in the series that dates to the end of the 19th century, but A&M has won the last five, the last in 1995 when the Ags just covered a 15-point spread with a 33-17 win at Kyle Field. None of the players on the field will really feel much of the rivalry, but it is a good one. Non-conference foes don't play each other 50 times for no reason at all.

The rivalry will also be evident in the Arlington grandstands. Texas A&M figures to have an advantage in the crowd, but it won't be as much as one might think with the game being played less than four hours north of College Station.

Ryan TannehillLSU arrives courtesy of a 10-2 record straight up, 5-6 against the spread. The Tigers are six places in front of the Aggies in the BCS rankings at No. 11 and were just a few plays from an undefeated season and trip to Arizona for the championship game. A better offense – specifically a little more on the passing side of the equation – and LSU would have made it.

Tigers quarterback Jordan Jefferson runs about as hot-&-cold as a menopausal woman. A gifted scrambler and runner, the kid can't stand still in the pocket more than a millisecond. Les Miles used junior Jarrett Lee, who grew up just down the road from the A&M campus, frequently and won't hesitate in this game if Jefferson gets off to a tough start.

Stevan Ridley paced the Tigers ground game, 30th in the nation, with a team-leading 1,042 yards and 14 scores. More importantly, he didn't fumble in 225 romps with the pigskin.

Texas A&M also had QB issues during the season, and the team really took off once head coach Mike Sherman sat senior Jerrod Johnson in favor of junior Ryan Tannehill. Johnson's style is very similar to LSU's Jefferson, and it resulted in a 3-3 record with him at the helm of A&M's offense.

Enter Tannehill at Kansas on Oct. 23, and the Aggies came to life. The junior from Big Spring, Texas completed 127-of-195 passes (65 percent) with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in leading the Aggies to six consecutive wins to close out the campaign. All six triumphs paid off at the betting window, putting the Ags 9-3 straight up and 8-4 versus the number.

Aggies fortunes also improved once Cyrus Gray took over in the backfield, rushing for 1,033 yards and 12 touchdowns. His 84-yard scoring jaunt in Austin on Thanksgiving night turned the tide in that game, and like LSU's Ridley, nary a fumble on the season in 180 carries.

Tannehill and his Aggie receivers will be facing one of the most talented defensive backfields in the country. LSU's defense ranked 10th in the country allowing only 17.8 points per game, and cornerback Patrick Peterson was a huge reason why. Peterson double-dipped on the awards circuit recently by taking home both the Thorpe and Bednarik trophies.

Except for the first and last games of 2010, against North Carolina and Arkansas respectively, the Tigers shut down opposing passing attacks.

The Aggies defense was a respectable 26th in the nation giving up 20.3 PPG, strong against the run save for the Kansas and Baylor games. The unit is led by Von Miller, who recently won the Butkus award as the top college linebacker. LSU's ability to establish the run and negate the A&M blitz schemes will be key for the Tigers.

A little more history and stats before delivering the inevitable homer pick. It's the 13th straight year the SEC and Big 12 have matched up in the game, The SEC is 7-5 in previous dozen meetings and has won six of the last seven. This is Texas A&M's 12th Cotton Bowl appearance with the Aggies 4-7. Their last showing was a forgettable 38-7 loss to Tennessee on Jan. 1, 2005. LSU is 2-1-1 in four Cotton Bowl games; the last time they were here was Jan. 1, 2003, a 35-20 loss to Texas.

A retractable roof at Jerry Jones' playground in Arlington means inclement weather won't be a factor. Current forecasts for the Arlington area call for a thermometer reading in the upper-40s, low-50s for kickoff with a 20 percent chance of rain.

I'm definitely siding with my heart in playing the, er, my Aggies plus the point. A&M has won only one of its last nine bowl games, so feel free to fade my heart. Aside from that, only one of the last six Cotton Bowls has seen more than 45 points scored. I can't help but like the 'under' 49 with these two defenses. Texas A&M 21 – LSU 19

Cotton Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Cotton Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-2, 49)

The Skinny:

Louisiana State (10-2) and its two-quarterback offensive attack did not look anything like the Tigers teams that won a pair of National Championships in the last decade but that didn’t stop them from coming darn close again in 2010. With its usually strong defense and coach Les Miles’ bag of tricks, LSU was in contention for a BCS berth until the final weekend of the regular season when it fell to Arkansas and dropped out of the BCS top 5.

Texas A&M (9-3) had a shot at a BCS bowl until the last weekend as well, missing out on the Big 12 Championship game due to a tiebreaker. The Aggies finished with six straight wins in the Big 12, knocking off division winners Nebraska and Oklahoma. The turning point came when Ryan Tannehill stepped in at quarterback against Kansas. The team hasn’t lost since.

Point Spread:

LSU -2. Over/Under 49.

The spread opened with Texas A&M set as a 1-point favorite but has since been bet up to -2. The total has moved half a point since post, to 49 points.

LSU’s Edge:

Creativity. Few are better than Miles at keeping opposing defenses on their toes. The quarterback rotation is just part of the fun for the Tigers, who will use any number of trick plays at the end of games to get that one last score. Of course, ranking eighth in the nation in defense doesn’t hurt, either. It’s that unit that keeps them in games long enough for Miles to play the gambler.

Texas A&M’s Edge:

Balance. The Aggies can beat you through the air with the combination of Tannehill to Jeff Fuller and pound away on the ground as well. Losing top running back Christine Michael to a broken leg midseason did not faze Texas A&M at all, as Cyrus Gray stepped up and finished the season with six straight 100-yard games, averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

The Aggies are equally adept at stopping the run, ranking 15th in the nation and first in the Big 12 in rushing defense.

The Quarterbacks:

LSU’s tandem of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson has struggled mightily at times, combining for six touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Jefferson accounts for 10 of those picks as the primary signal caller.

Tannehill has made only five starts after coming on in relief on Oct. 23 against Kansas, but has piled up 1,434 yards and 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. The 6-foot-4 junior is completing 65.3 percent of his passes.

NFL Prospects:

LSU — CB Patrick Peterson, WR Terrence Toliver, OLB Kelvin Sheppard, DT Drake Nevis, OT Joe Barksdale, RB Stevan Ridley.
Texas A&M — OLB Von Miller, WR Jeff Fuller

Bowl history:

LSU is 21-17-1 all-time in bowl games and has won four of five under Miles, including the 2007 National Championship game over Ohio State. Miles’ lone loss came in the Capital One Bowl last year, when the Tigers fell to Penn State, 19-17.

Texas A&M is 13-18 all-time in bowl games and has lost 13 of its last 15. Five of those losses came in the Cotton Bowl, most recently in 2004 against Tennessee. The Aggies were invited to the Independence Bowl last season, dropping a 44-20 decision to Georgia.

Trends

Aggies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. SEC.
Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games as an underdog.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies' last four games vs. SEC.
Under is 5-2 in Tigers' last seven non-conference games.

Tips and Trends

Texas AM Aggies vs LSU Tigers

AGGIES: Texas AM has won their past 6 games SU, and entered the Bowl season as one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Aggies have been brilliant of late, beating both Oklahoma and Nebraska recently. Texas AM is also 8-4 ATS this season, proving just how underrated this team really is. The Aggies are 3-1 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Aggies are 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this year. QB Ryan Tannehill has been brilliant since taking over at QB, as he's thrown for more than 1,400 YDS and 11 TD's in his brief time under center. Texas AM is averaging 31.8 PPG this year, 34st best in the country. This Aggies defense is underrated because of the success of their offense, but they were able to hold Oklahoma and Nebraska to a combined 25 PTS. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Texas AM is 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Texas AM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Texas AM is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the SEC.

Aggies are 0-7 ATS last 7 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 bowl games.

Key Injuries - WR Ryan Swope (foot) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

TIGERS: (-1.5, O/U 49) LSU comes into the Cotton Bowl with a 10-2 SU and 5-7 ATS overall record this year. The Tigers are ranked 11th in the country, thanks to a world class defense. Both of the Tigers SU losses this year have come away from home. LSU is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS away from home this season. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The biggest reason LSU has struggled this season from an ATS standpoint is because of their anemic offense. The Tigers rely on their rushing attack, because their passing game is anemic. LSU averages 28.8 PPG this season, just 51st in the country. RB Steven Ridley has rushed for more than 1,000 YDS this season, including 14 TD's. Defensively, LSU is allowing just 17.8 PPG, 11th best in the nation. The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite up to a field goal. Texas AM is 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 bowl games.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games following an ATS loss.

Key Injuries - RB Steven Ridley (academics) is probable.

Projected Score: 23

Cotton Bowl Preview

LSU got good news when RB Ridley (grades) was cleared to play; they are 4-1 in last five bowls (were dog in two of the four wins), scoring 38+ points in all four wins, losing to Penn State 19-17 on a muddy track (the field was replaced by Field Turf after) LY. Tigers have QB issues, there's a chance coach Miles could go to Michigan (he played his college football there), so they have distraction issues. LSU is young, as QB Jefferson is junior- they have only one senior starter on OL.

Texas A&M got hot when they changed QBs, winning last six games, the last five all against bowl teams. QB Taneyhill was actually A&M's #1 WR in 2008, now he is the QB. Big 12 teams covered twice in last nine appearances in Cotton Bowls; Aggies played in this terrific stadium last two years, losing to Arkansas both times. A&M lost its last four bowls by average score of 38-14; their last bowl win was 2001.

Big 12 teams lost six of last seven Cotton Bowls, losing last three, all by 13+ points; losing side scored 14 or less points in five of last six Cotton Bowls. Game is now indoors, after being in actual Cotton Bowl where weather was sometimes a factor. Favorites covered three of last four.

Cotton Bowl Betting Preview: LSU vs Texas A&M
By Jeff Mattingly

LSU renews its rivalry with Texas A&M when the teams meet in the 75th annual AT&T Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Tigers only losses came at then No. 5 Auburn and at then No. 12 Arkansas. “We are very excited about going to Dallas,” said director of athletics Joe Alleva. “Once it looked like we were out of the running for a BCS bowl game, we turned our attention to this game.” Tonight’s game will be the first meeting between these two schools since the season-opener in 1995 when the Aggies beat the Tigers, 33-17, in College Station. The team is coming off a 31-23 loss to the Razorbacks, which is significant considering coach Les Miles is 15-1 following a loss while at LSU and the squad has lost back-to-back games just one time in six years under him. The Tigers are also a dominating 27-1 under Miles in non-conference games with the only loss coming against Penn State in last year’s Capital One Bowl. LSU is 8-15 ATS as a favorite and 7-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three years.

The Tigers have outscored opponents 1,068-289 in their 28 non-conference games under Miles since he took over in 2005. Offensively, LSU is averaging 28.8 points and 332.6 total yards per game. The team has rushed for 100 yards as a team in all 12 games this year. Running back Stevan Ridley leads the Tigers and ranks fourth in the SEC with 1,042 yards and 14 touchdowns. Junior quarterback Jordan Jefferson will also become the first player in program history to start three straight bowl games at quarterback since Tommy Hodson in 1986-88. He has compiled a 19-7 record as a starter for the squad. LSU is 4-2 versus Top 25 teams this season and 22-13 against ranked opponents the last six seasons. On the defensive side of the ball, the team is ranked in the top 10 in the nation in three defensive categories – total defense (301.6 ypg), scoring defense (17.8 ppg) and pass defense (165.8 ypg).

Texas A&M will take part in its 32nd bowl game and compiled a 13-18 record in its previous 31 bowl encounters. The Aggies have faced LSU once previously in a bowl game with the Tigers handing the Aggies a 19-14 defeat at the 1944 Orange Bowl. The team brings in a six-game winning streak into the Cotton Bowl. “We have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and it is appropriate we will face a great challenge from a quality LSU program,” director of athletics Bill Byrne said. “It should make for one of the best matchups in the bowl season.” Some of the team’s biggest stars will be inspired by playing a bowl game in the Dallas metroplex, since 13 players on the two-deep are from the area. Texas A&M is 6-11 ATS as an underdog.

The Aggies have shown the ability to comeback in games all season long, rallying from two-touchdown deficits in three contests this season. Texas A&M has also rallied behind Ryan Tannehill being installed as the starting quarterback after the team benched signal caller Jerrod Johnson following a 3-3 start. He completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,409 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions over the final six games. Running back Cyrus Gray is a dynamic playmaker and finished the season with six consecutive 100-yard games and ran for 223 yards in a 24-17 win over Texas in the regular-season finale on November 25.

Bettors will be interested in knowing that the Tigers are 1-4 ATS as a favorite, while the Aggies are 0-5-1 ATS versus the SEC