Back-to-Back Road Games
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Every NFL team will have to deal with at least one back-to-back set of road games every season. However, not every squad is treated equally by the schedule makers as 75% of the league will play at least two sets of consecutive away contests during the 2016 campaign, while only eight teams have to deal with back-to-back road games only once this season.
Is there an effective way to handicap this scheduling situation by either backing teams in the opening game or fading them on the second leg of consecutive away contests? We’ll take a look back at last season to see if any of these trends are something to keep an eye on for the upcoming season.
The league has cut down on the back-to-back road games from 2015 to 2016. Last season, there were 71 instances of teams having to play away from home in back-to-back weeks, including several times when clubs were scheduled to play three consecutive times on the highway. This season, that number drops to 68, which includes nine times when teams play division opponents in those back-to-back scenarios.
Traveling back to 2015, out of the 71 times in which teams played consecutive road games, 15 of them won each set (21%), while 24 lost back-to-back contests (34%). The teams that fared the best include Arizona, Carolina, Denver, and Seattle, all who won back-to-back away games twice. No surprise that two of them made the Super Bowl (Carolina and Denver), while Seattle and Arizona each were playoff teams. From an ATS perspective, none of the above teams compiled a 2-0 ATS record twice in those two-game sweeps, as the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks all went 2-0 ATS in one set and 1-1 ATS in another set. In spite of not going 2-0 ATS twice, Denver went 3-0-1 ATS total in back-to-back road games, which included a push in an overtime win at Cleveland.
Among the worst teams in this scenario, Baltimore, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and San Diego took the top honors. The Ravens went through a dismal campaign in 2015 which included the loss of quarterback Joe Flacco late in the season. However, Baltimore’s problems began earlier as it dropped a pair of back-to-back sets out west at Denver and Oakland, followed by defeats at San Francisco and Arizona. The only saving grace for the Ravens was the 2-0 ATS mark on the back-end of consecutive road games in the underdog role in close losses to the Cardinals and Dolphins.
The Chargers displayed no success when it came to hitting the road in back-to-back weeks, losing all four times. In September, San Diego traveled east to Cincinnati as a 3 ½-point underdog and lost, 24-19, but were blown out the following week in a 31-14 rout at Minnesota as two-point ‘dogs. The Lightning Bolts dropped a pair of division games in December on the road in back-to-back weeks, but covered each time as a ‘dog at Oakland and Denver.
Jacksonville actually had the rare honor of losing three straight road games in a three-week span, falling to New England, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay. The Jaguars covered only once in this span as four-point ‘dogs against the Colts, while allowing at least 38 points in the other two defeats. This season, Jacksonville avoided the dreaded run of three consecutive contests on the highway, but the Jags will play four games in a five-week span away from EverBank Field (Week 8-9, Week 11-12).
From an ATS standpoint, teams off an underdog victory on the front-end of a road back-to-back set stumbled to a 5-12 SU and 8-10-1 ATS record the following week in 2015. Underdogs that lost in the first game of consecutive away contests didn’t fare well in the next game on the highway, posting a 9-18 SU and 12-15 ATS mark. However, ‘dogs of 9 ½ points or more in the second straight road game coming off an away loss went 4-1 ATS last season, including Philadelphia’s upset of New England last December.
Is there a tie-in with totals related to teams playing back-to-back road contests? Out of the 71 scenarios in which teams took the highway in consecutive weeks in 2015, the most common total trend was OVER/UNDER 21 times, followed by UNDER/UNDER 16 times. Only 14 times out of 71 did a team cash the OVER in consecutive road games, as Carolina was the only team to do so twice. Out of the 34 instances in which squads cashed the OVER in the first week, the UNDER hit 20 times in the second week last season.
Four of eight playoff teams from last season will play one back-to-back road set in 2016, including the Panthers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Seahawks. Carolina heads to the West Coast in consecutive weeks in late November to battle Oakland and Seattle, while the Seahawks will have back-to-back tough tests at Arizona and New Orleans in Week 7 and 8.
Ten clubs head out of town for three sets of consecutive road games this season, but only one of those teams travel to the same destination in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens drew the Giants and Jets in Week 6 and 7 at Met Life Stadium, but finish up the season at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the final two weeks. Oakland and Miami each travel cross-country for a back-to-back set, but will remain on that coast for those two games (Raiders battle the Jaguars and Buccaneers in October, while the Dolphins take on the Chargers and Rams in November).