Backing Unranked Favorites
By Judd Hall
College football is an interesting creature in that not every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision expects to win a national championship. Some programs at this level just simply want to be recognized by the sports writers or other coaches so they can listed in the polls.
Ranking for a lot of clubs from the middle of the pack in BCS conferences or at the top mid-majors (like the Mountain West) is validation and a little bit of respect. Yet getting into the Top 25 of either AP or USA Today polls doesn’t equate to getting respect from the folks making the lines.
You’d think that you would not see all that many unranked clubs being tabbed as a favorite against teams in the Top 25, but you’d be wrong. During the 2009 campaign, there were 18 separate occasions in which a ranked team was posted as an underdog. And if you go back over the last three seasons, you’ll see that this has happened 46 times.
The first thing that a public gambler will do without thinking is drop their money on the ranked team to win as a pup. That line of thinking doesn’t play in this day and age. VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Dave Cokin explains, “I don't think there's any particular correlation between the national rankings and the spreads anymore. Lots of bettors are sharp enough to recognize that the rankings are pretty much a farce. The voters who comprise these polls have been exposed as not being especially knowledgeable.”
“The oddsmakers certainly don't have much regard for these rankings, and neither do the sharp players. Further proof that the betting world is not comprised of mostly squares anymore, at least not in terms of their perception of the team,” Cokin concludes.
So what do gamblers need to know about this situation that will most certainly rear its head during the season?
The first thing we need to realize is the oddsmakers know what they’re doing as the unranked clubs that are favored have gone 28-18 straight up in those 46 matches over the last years. As far as bettors are concerned, however, those favorites are just 24-21-1 against the spread. That’s a 53 percent success rate, which is nothing to ignore.
Breaking down that information into the BCS conferences, you’ll see that the ACC has been the group with the most games in this situation with 13. In those contests, the unranked club went 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS.
While the ACC has the most games in this role, the Pac-10 has been the group to play at the betting window. Teams from the west coast have only played seven games as an unranked favorite, but they are 5-2 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ cashed in at a 5-2 in those spots as well.
You don’t have to just focus on the leagues to make a profit on this situation. It’s just as important to know when you should hammer the unranked “chalk” as it is to fade them.
There have been eight games in which an unranked club was favored over the last three years. Those favorites were 3-5 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ proved to be the right play for gamblers that fancy totals by going 7-1.
September hasn’t been the time to fade those unranked programs over the last three years, evidenced by a 3-5 SU and ATS record. Last September, they went 1-3 SU and ATS…extend that out over the first two months of the year and they were only 2-6 SU and ATS. That opening month fade can be attributed to unranked BCS schools getting preference over non-conference foes.
Bettors are better suited for to wait for conference play in November. When in that final full month of league play, unranked favorites are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS. And those same faves posted a stellar 6-0 SU and ATS mark with the ‘under’ going 4-1-1 just last November.
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