Battle for the Big Ten
By Judd Hall
It’s been a long time since the Big Ten has had a three-way race for the conference championship. And it’s been even longer that they’ve had said race go down to the final Saturday. The Buckeyes, Badgers and Spartans are all vying for the league’s automatic BCS berth and an at-large bid.
Ohio State might be the one with the hardest road to going 11-1 on the regular season by hosting the hated Wolverines on Saturday at 12:00 p.m. EST on ABC. The Buckeyes were opened up as 17 ½-point home favorites for this contest, but has been moved down to 17 at the time of publishing.
The Bucks come into this game as a statistical powerhouse, ranking 18th in total offense (446.2 YPG), 3rd in total defense (241.5 YPG), 9th in scoring offense (39.6 PPG) and 5th in scoring defense (13.9 PPG). As great as those numbers are for Jim Tressel’s club, they don’t indicate how bad this team has been in the first half.
Over the last two week, Ohio State has been outscored 21-6 in the first half of its last two games by the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes. Yet the Buckeyes not only won both games, but they covered the spread in both games. If there was ever a team that deserved to be a first half fade, it’s the Scarlet and Gray.
The biggest asset for the Buckeyes right now has been its defense, which has allowed just 13 points over their last four contests. Wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher and Running Back Dan Herron have highly effective by accounting 1,711 total yards and 23 touchdowns. Which is good as Terrelle Pryor is still trying to figure out how to be a quarterback. He’s got 23 touchdown throws and four more on the ground, but is still making poor throws and getting picked off at the worst possible times. Yet Pryor still finds ways to win games for Bucks.
Even though Pryor has been with has passing recently, he’ll get a lot of leeway this Saturday against Michigan and its matador defense at the Horseshoe.
The Wolverines will be going bowling for the first time with Rich Rodriguez running the show, but it is in spite of their stoppers. Michigan’s defense is 112th in the country with 445.2 yards per game being allowed this season. The secondary has been the worst part the defense, surrendering 263.9 YPG to rank 111th. This is a unit that has allowed 142 points in its last three games.
Michigan’s offense has been sputtering as of late with being shut out in the opening half against the Badgers and put up just 14 points in the first 30 minutes against the Boilermakers. Denard Robinson has been the hype machine for the Wolverines this season with his 2,229 yards through the air, 1,538 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns. Those numbers tend to help the faithful forget about his bad throws, fumbles and injury issues this season.
Ohio State has had ownership of this rivalry ever since Jim Tressel came to Columbus in 2001. The Bucks have gone 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread in that time. The most recent cover for the Wolverines was the 42-39 loss at Ohio Stadium as 6 ½-point pups in the No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in 2006. And that was a backdoor cover.
Michigan hasn’t been a wise road pup to back as of late, going 2-6 SU and ATS over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are damn near automatic as home faves against Big Ten foes since 2005, evidenced by a 21-1 SU and 16-6 ATS record.
While the Buckeyes will be playing for their sixth straight Big Ten crown, Michigan State will be aiming for at least a share of its first title since 1990. They’ll be taking on the Nittany Lions at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
The Spartans seeming have a horseshoe tucked into the uniforms of all of their players with the way they’ve won some of their games. They won on a fake field goal against the Fighting Irish, got the Wildcats to choke for them just like the Boilermakers did last week. But they do hold the only win anyone has on the Badgers. Back in the day, that would have been an important tiebreaker in the Big Ten. We’ll get to that stuff a little later though.
Michigan State’s offense has been sluggish, but still is run by QB Kirk Cousins. The junior signal caller appeared to get back on track last week against Purdue by connecting on 28-of-37 pass attempts for 276 yards and three scores with one pick that was ran back for a touchdown. That’s a big change from Cousins’ two start prior with just one touchdown and four interceptions.
The biggest liability right now for Sparty is that their defense can’t reach opposing quarterbacks as of late. They’ve got just one sack in their last three games and they’ve played the likes of Purdue and Minnesota, which are thanking the good lord that they won’t finish in dead last in the conference (Thanks, Bill Lynch and Indiana).
Penn State won’t let the Spartans get too many chances at hitting Matt McGloin as they’re giving up just .91 sacks per game. All McGloin has done recently is throw eight touchdowns to just two picks in his last three starts for JoePa. But they had issues stuffing the Hoosiers’ wide receivers, giving up 242 yards through the air. That could hurt this week once again with Michigan State’s solid duo of Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham.
The betting shops have posted the Spartans as slight two-point road favorites with a total of 51. That’s a high number considering that Penn State walked away with a 42-14 and 49-14 triumphs the last two seasons against Sparty. Also lending credence to the Nittany Lions is the fact that they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they’ve hosted MSU.
The Nittany Lions are also one of the better home pups to back in Big Ten battles, posting a solid 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS.
While the Buckeyes and Spartans are fighting to keep a piece of the conference title, Wisconsin will control its own destiny. All the Badgers have to do is take down Northwestern as 23 ½-point home favorites with a total of 47. ESPN will have the action in this one at 3:30 p.m. EST.
Wisconsin looks like the most unstoppable team in the Big Ten right now. The Badgers ripped apart Indiana 83-20 two weeks ago and Michigan 48-28 just last Saturday. They’ve also dominated Ohio State earlier in the season. And I’m willing to bet they could beat down the Spartans if they were to get a rematch.
The Badgers’ bread and butter is to pound the ball down the opposition’s throat. Everyone knows about John Clay and his skills (929 rushing yards, 13 TDs), but he’s been out with a knee injury for the last few games. That hasn’t mattered for Bret Bielema since he can use either Montee Ball or James White in the backfield. Ball has been a man possessed as of late with nine touchdowns and 467 rushing yards. In fact, Wisky is the only team in the nation that can boast three running backs that have at least 600 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns each.
That kind of output has helped Scott Tolzien become a much more accurate passer. Just in the last two games, he has completed 29-of-33 of his passes for 382 and three scores. Now Tolzien is the seventh-most efficient quarterback in the land with a rating of 163.04.
Those numbers can’t look good to backers of Northwestern, who have lost four of its last six games. The rushing numbers in particular are going to be an issue. The Wildcats gave up a mind-boggling 519 rushing yards last week against Illinois at Wrigley Field.
The Wildcats will also be hurting on offense this week with Dan Persa getting knocked out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon the final moments of their win against Iowa. That means we get to see Evan Watkins to get thrown to the wolves…or Badgers, as it were.
While it looks like this will be a lopsided affair, the recent series between these two teams is evenly matched. Wisconsin owns a 6-4 SU mark over the last 10 meetings. Northwestern was the team to back at the window as they’ve gone 7-3 ATS in that stretch.
How it all breaks down…
When all is said and done on Saturday, one of these three teams will be making it to the Rose Bowl with the league’s automatic bid. Here are how the Big Ten will figure out who gets that trip to Pasadena.
1 – If the Buckeyes, Spartans and Badgers finish with identical records after Saturday’s games, the berth will go to the team that finishes with the highest BCS ranking. That tiebreaker goes to the Badgers, who are ranked seventh.
2 – Michigan State would win the Rose Bowl invite if they finish tied with Wisky in the standings if Ohio State loses to the Wolverines. That’s due to the 34-24 win the Spartans had over the Badgers on Oct. 1.
3 – Wisconsin will get the automatic spot due to its head-to-head win over the Buckeyes should Michigan State lose to the Nittany Lions.
4 – Should the Badgers lose to Northwestern, either Michigan State or Ohio State will get the trip to Pasadena based on better BCS ranking.
5 – Ohio State would get the bid outright should both Wisky and Michigan State lose on Saturday.
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