BCS Banter
As the first "official" BCS rankings have been announced, there are several potential down-the-road developments we can see on the horizon that could make past controversies almost mute by comparison. Before we address those points, however, a few observations on the rankings themselves.
1) Florida...No problem, we suppose, with the Gators garnering the top spot. After all, until the number one team gets knocked off, why should it lose its top spot in the rankings? Although the Gators haven't been quite as impressive as some were expecting (last week's close call vs. improving Arkansas in particular), there is nothing wrong about sitting unbeaten in SEC play entering late October. A lot of teams would be thrilled with 10-point wins over Tennessee and LSU. Having said that, however, we think Florida might be missing a little of the spark it had last season, and that might be because Percy Harvin is now with the Minnesota Vikings and no longer around Gainesville to distort enemy defenses. The Gator offense, Tim Tebow or not, doesn't look quite as scary, although the defense appears to be as good (or better) than ever.
2) Alabama...The Tide, which has even moved to the top of the AP poll, has been picking up more support every week and is effectively in a pole position for the BCS title game; all Bama has to do is keep winning through the regular season and SEC title game, where the Gators would almost assuredly await, to earn a spot in Pasadena in early January. Still, however, we're a bit surprised that much of the media seems to believe the Tide has a clear path until that potential showdown vs. Florida. A November 7 home date vs. LSU is more than treacherous (indeed, it would put the Tigers on top in the SEC West if they pull off what would only be a minor upset), and even though Auburn has slipped a bit in the last two weeks, don't forget that this year's Iron Bowl is being played at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 27. Longtime Tide supporters don't have to be reminded how the Tigers have ended Bama's unbeaten hopes before (Tide fans recall the '72 loss vs. Shug Jordan's underrated Auburn as bitterly as Democrats about that year's election loss by George McGovern). A trip to Starkville vs. improved Mississippi State November 14 might not be a picnic, either; remember that Nick Saban's first Bama team lost at Starkville in 2007.
3) Texas...At this point, it really doesn't matter that the Longhorns are behind both Alabama and Florida in the rankings, since either the Tide or Gators are guaranteed to lose once before the bowl season. All Mack Brown's team has to do is keep winning and it should get to the big game. With Texas Tech and Oklahoma now in the rear-view mirror, the toughest remaining tests likely come in the next two weeks on the road, at Missouri (which has fallen from grace in the past few weeks) and the real scary test left on the schedule at Oklahoma State on Halloween. Still, Texas hardly looks unbeatable, especially with Colt McCoy not at his best, at least at the moment, as he deals with a distracting thumbnail problem (a real nuisance for a QB or baseball pitcher) and a running game that has been a bit spotty to date. Texas has also covered just one pointspread in six outings, so the feeling persists that the Horns are playing under their capabilities...if only just a bit.
After the top three, things get very interesting, however. We'd watch a few other scenarios in particular in the coming weeks.
Cincinnati. The unbeaten Bearcats (currently 5th in the BCS poll) survived what figured to be one of their toughest tests last Thursday at South Florida, and did so with QB Tony Pike on the shelf for most of the second half. Pike, who had minor surgery on his left forearm (the same arm broken last season) during the week, might not make the post for this week's game vs. Louisville, although the Cats shouldn't have much trouble prevailing with mobile soph QB Zach Collaros (who had a 75-yard TD sprint vs. the Bulls) in the lineup. As long as Pike is available down the stretch, Cincy figures to be solidly favored in its last five games, beginning Halloween at Syracuse. The toughest tests figure to be when West Virginia comes calling to Nippert Stadium on November 13, and a regular-season finale (in expected tough weather conditions) at Pitt December 5.
Here is where it could get very interesting for the Bearcats. As a card-carrying member of the BCS, the Big East would expect an undefeated champion of its league to get full consideration for the title game, especially if it comes down to a choice between an undefeated Cincy and, say, a one-loss SEC team, or maybe Southern Cal from the Pac-10. If a one-loss team hurdles the undefeated Bearcats and gets into the title game, we would have to assume the Big East would either consider withdrawing from the BCS, or bring some sort of action against the organization. And we'd just sit back and watch the fireworks as they occur.
Iowa. Much like Cincy, the Hawkeyes are unbeaten, if barely so in what has amounted to an early-season, wild slalom run (three wins by six points total, vs. unheralded Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, as well as Michigan). But with wins already at Penn State and Wisconsin, and upcoming tests at Michigan State (this week) and Ohio State (November 14) not looking any more daunting, the Hawkeyes have emerged as the team we thought Penn State might be this season, sneaking through a watered-down Big Ten and showing up with an undefeated record in December. This could potentially present another dilemma for the BCS, as the Big Ten is definitely one of the card-carrying conferences in the group, and for its unbeaten champ not to be rewarded in the title game (especially if leapfrogged by a one-loss SEC team), we can only wonder what would transpire thereafter. Remember, the Big Ten, and Pac-10, have threatened in the past to use their Rose Bowl "escape hatch" as a way out of the BCS if things don't go their way, which in the past has meant any expansion of the BCS to a "plus-one" or other playoff-looking format. Would the exclusion of an unbeaten Iowa from the title game, in favor of a one-loss SEC entry, trigger the Big Ten to make good on its previous threat?
Boise State. Although the Broncos should do enough to qualify for the BCS if they continue to win, their chances at getting involved in the title game are remote at best. Even though, from what we've seen, Boise at its best might be one of the two top teams in the land. The computer rankings will begin to downgrade the Broncos as the season continues and Boise's schedule becomes weighted down by various WAC teams. The "human polls" (coaches and the Harris) will also prove interesting, as Boise has been ranked ahead of some of the top one-loss teams, at least until last week, when Southern Cal leapfrogged it in the AP version. If the Broncos remain unbeaten (as they figure to do) and nonetheless get excluded from the title game, we suspect that their part in the eventual debate will be as the poster child for a playoff. After all, shouldn't an undefeated Bronco team have a chance to play for a national title, just as an undefeated Boise basketball team would have the opportunity in the hoop Big Dance?
Southern Cal. The Trojans, who have been involved in a few scrapes already and even lost one of those at Washington, still have a few land mines to avoid in the Pac-10 (including the next two weeks vs. Oregon State and Oregon), but are in position to move into title-game contention if Texas should stumble before the end of the season. It would get even more interesting for the Trojans if no team were to escape the SEC unscathed; in an eventual logjam of one-loss teams, SC might not be in bad shape, especially if poll etiquette comes into play (remember, SC's loss came early in the season, historically the best time to suffer a setback and stay in the title hunt). As mentioned above, however, it will really get interesting if Iowa and/or Cincinnati continue on their unbeaten paths. We would expect a one-loss SC to get the nod over an unbeaten Boise for the title game, but can't be as sure a one-loss SC would get the title game nod over unbeaten champions of other BCS leagues.
Stay tuned.
Goldsheet.com