BCS Championship Betting News and Notes Monday 1/9

BCS National Championship: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers (+2, 40.5)

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES

1. The SEC will claim its sixth straight national title at the conclusion of an epic rematch between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama. Les Miles’ undefeated Tigers nipped Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, 9-6, in overtime on Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Miles is looking for his second national title; Saban is after his third.

2. Not a lot has changed since the November meeting. The same 22 players that started for Alabama against LSU the first time also started the Tide’s rout of Auburn in the regular-season finale. The only significant change in LSU’s lineup is at quarterback. Jarrett Lee started against Alabama, but was quickly replaced by current starter Jordan Jefferson. It’s unquestionably Jefferson’s team now.

3. Alabama is No. 1 in total defense; LSU is No. 2. So a shootout is unlikely. Neither offense amassed 300 yards or reached the end zone in the first meeting. Special teams might be the difference, and LSU has the advantage. The Crimson Tide missed three field goals in the first game.

4. This is a historically close championship game with Las Vegas sportsbooks listing the pointspread at Pick ‘em in late December. No BCS National Championship Game or Super Bowl has ever had a closing line of Pick 'em.

5. LSU has played the toughest schedule in the nation. The Tigers’ opponents are 78-44. Alabama’s opponents went 68-45.

LINE: LSU opened as a 1.5-point favorite but action on Alabama flipped the spread. The Crimson Tide recently jumped to -2. The total opened at 40 points and has remained steady with a few 39.5-point and 40.5-point numbers out there.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 8-4 ATS): RB Trent Richardson led the Tide in rushing and receiving against LSU. He’ll need some help from sophomore quarterback A.J. McCarron and a receiving corps that lacks a go-to guy for the Tide offense to have a better showing this time. In his first year starting, McCarron has been solid, but unspectacular. He completed 66.7 percent of his pass attempts with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hit 16 of 28 passes against LSU with an interception.

Even if Alabama’s offense struggles, its defense is very capable of keeping the Tide in the game. As many as five starters are projected to be early NFL draft picks, led by like strong safety Mark Barron and star linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw.

Kicker Jeremy Shelley has made 16 of 20 field goals with a long of 37. He has missed both his attempts of 40 yards or longer.

ABOUT LSU (13-0, 8-0 SEC, 10-3 ATS): LSU’s defense is equally talented, featuring a loaded secondary led by game-changers Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu.

Offensively, Jefferson, a dual-threat, has been a sparkplug. He was suspended the first four games for altercation outside a Baton Rouge establishment and was used sparingly behind Lee until the Alabama game. The Tigers averaged 44 points with Jefferson starting their last four games.

Don’t underestimate LSU’s advantage on special teams, which includes punter Brad Wingo. LSU is allowing .35 yards per punt return, thanks to Wingo’s booming hang-time.

Kicker Drew Alleman has made 16 of 18 field goals and is 3 of 3 from beyond 40 yards.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide's last five Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2-1 in Tigers' last eight games overall.

PREDICTION: LSU 24, Alabama 20 – Another overtime thriller between these two evenly matched teams wouldn’t be surprising. LSU’s advantage in special teams could be the difference again.

BCS Championship
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

For the first time since Jan. 2 of 1997, the national title will be decided in a rematch of a regular-season game. On that night at the Superdome in New Orleans, Florida avenged a 24-21 loss at FSU by trouncing the Seminoles by a 52-20 count.

This time around, we have a pair of bitter SEC rivals meeting again at the same venue in the Big Easy. Louisiana State (13-0 straight up, 10-3 against the spread) won a 9-6 decision at Alabama in overtime back on Nov. 5 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, hooking up its backers as a 5½-point underdog.

Thanks to three straight wins since that defeat, coupled with losses by previously-unbeaten teams like Stanford, Oklahoma St. and Boise St., Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) is back in the BCS Championship Game for the second time in three years.

As of Sunday afternoon, most books were listing the Crimson Tide as a 1 1/2-point favorite with a total of 40. A few offshores were all the way up to two in favor of ‘Bama.

Nick Saban’s team is coming off a 42-14 win at Auburn as a 21½-point road ‘chalk.’ Trent Richardson was the catalyst with 27 carries for 203 yards, while A.J. McCarron completed 18-of-23 throws for 184 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

LSU has taken care of its business from the start when it thumped Oregon 40-27 in the season opener at Cowboys Stadium. Even without starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who was suspended for the first four games, the Tigers cruised through a brutal September slate that included a trip to Starkville on a short week of preparation and a venture to Morgantown.

Les Miles’s bunch beat Mississippi St. 19-6 and demolished West Va., 47-21. The Tigers have wins over six teams that have already won bowl games. They played the nation’s toughest schedule, as its foes have a 78-44 combined record.

LSU has an amazing ground attack with four big-time running backs. The quartet of Michael Ford, Spencer Ware, Alfred Blue and Kenny Hilliard have combined to rush for 2,316 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Hilliard, a true freshman who is the nephew of Dalton Hilliard, the former LSU and New Orleans Saints great, has emerged over the last few games. He had only two touches at ‘Bama but is expected to play a much larger role Monday night.

In LSU’s 42-10 win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 3, Hilliard scored three touchdowns in the second half alone. He rushed eight times for 72 yards and a pair of scores and also had an eight-yard TD catch from Jefferson, who has started every game since relieving Jarrett Lee in the second quarter at Alabama.

Alabama has its best defense since the vaunted unit that led it to the national title in 1992 with a blowout win over Miami at (guess where?!) the Superdome in New Orleans. The Tide ranks No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (8.8 PPG) and yards allowed (191.2 per game). They limited LSU to three field goals over 60 minutes and change in Tuscaloosa.

Gamblers should anticipate a huge helping of Richardson from ‘Bama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain, who is the new head coach at Colorado St. but will call plays Monday. Richardson was a finalist for the Heisman and finished the regular season with 1,583 yards and 20 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He also had three TD catches.

McCarron has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,400 yards with a 16/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He connected on 16-of-28 attempts for 199 yards with an interception in the first meeting vs. LSU.

BCS Championship Preview
By Jim Feist

Here they go again! The SEC has won the last 5 national titles and will win again. Defense is the story (and revenge), with Bama No. 1 in points allowed (8.8) and LSU No. 2 (10.5). Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) has junior RB Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 6.0 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (631, 7.5 ypc) on another powerhouse team for Nick Saban. Sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (16 TDs, 5 INTs) runs this balanced attack averaging 36 points, 213.6 yards passing, 219.8 yards rushing. The defense is sensational, yet they botched their first showdown at home with No. 1 LSU, a stunning 9-6 OT defeat. 3 missed field goals, 2 crushing turnovers and countless missed opportunities and poor execution cost them. They held LSU to 234 total yards and forced 2 turnovers. Bama is 21-10-1 under the total in their last 31 conference games.

No. 1 LSU (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) has a ton of talent, especially on defense. Senior QB Jarrett Lee (14 TDs, 3 INTs) has been very good, though the ground game leads the way behind soph RBs Spencer Ware (700 yds, 4.0 ypc) and Mike Ford (755, 6.1 ypc), a dynamic one-two backfield punch, averaging 38 ppg, 209 yards rushing and 167 passing. 6-4 junior WR Rueben Randle (904 yards) can stretch defenses averaging 18.1 yards per catch (though he caught only 2 passes in the first meeting against Bama). The Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

BCS Championship Preview

First meeting: LSU (+4.5) won 9-6 at Alabama, when Crimson Tide was 2-6 on field goals; Tigers outrushed Bama 148-96. Last time teams met in bowl after playing during season was Washington-Nebraska LY, when Cornhuskers killed U-Dub during season, then got upset in the bowl.

LSU is 9-3 in its last 12 games vs Alabama, with these teams both play on grass, but this game is on Superdome's carpet, which figures to favor LSU's blazing-fast defense. Before 9-6 game, average total in previous five series meetings was 49.8. Don't forget, LSU's coach for some of the earlier wins against Alabama was Nick Saban, before he went to Miami.

Alabama won three of last four bowls, with loss coming to Utah here in Sugar Bowl three years ago 31-17 (-9); they won national title two years ago. LSU won four of last five bowls, scoring 38+ points in all five wins. Only loss was 19-17 to Penn State in Capital One Bowl two years ago. Tigers won national title four years ago.

Oregon-West Va-Arkansas are only teams to score more than 11 points against LSU this year; they've got a great defense, which masks all the deficiencies their offense has. McCarron is first-year starting QB for the Tide. Neither team played many close games; they crushed opponents.

Biggest factor in LSU's favor is because Miles is so quirky, his teams play loose in big spots, moreso than the ultra-tense Saban, who could make coffee nervous. Tremendous amount of pressure on kicking group from Alabama (snapper/holder/kicker). I don't think LSU winning first meeting makes winning this game any harder.