BCS Championship Game Betting News and Notes

BCS Championship Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Alabama- vs. -Notre Dame
CRIS Opener: Alabama -7.5 O/U 42
CRIS Current: Alabama -9.5 O/U 50
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -11.5

The history for teams trying to win a second consecutive BCS title game is not good. Florida State beat Virginia Tech to win the title following the 1999 season. The next year as they strove to repeat, the Seminoles lost 13-2 to Oklahoma as -10 favorites. Miami won a title in 2001, blowing out Nebraska. In ‘02, they were upset as -9 favorites against Ohio State. USC won a title in 2003, blowing out Oklahoma. In an attempt to repeat in 2004, the Trojans (-6.5) lost outright to Texas. That’s three repeat tries in the history of the BCS title game, and the defending champ (favored by a TD or more each time) lost outright each time.

I have nothing bad to write about Alabama here – they’re a great football team. Quarterback AJ McCarron had a remarkable season, throwing only three interceptions compared to 26 touchdown passes while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. McCarron was protected by an offensive line that enters the BCS Championship game with a whopping 160 career starts between them. Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker are all projected first round picks in this spring’s NFL draft. The Tide rushed for more than 2,900 yards for the season, averaging well over 200 rushing yards per game. Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon both had 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Alabama scored 62 touchdowns this year, the most in school history and ranked at the top of the NCAA with a 6.9 yards per play average.

The Alabama defense played only one quarter of bad football all year – the first quarter against Texas A&M. But they did struggle against some of the better quarterbacks they faced, most notably dual threat Johnny Manziel, but also against LSU’s Zach Mettenberger and Georgia’s Aaron Murray. Alabama’s secondary acquitted itself quite nicely after losing three players to the NFL draft last spring, including a pair of first rounders, even without a truly dominant pass rusher on the roster.

But the Crimson Tide are beatable. Texas A&M beat them in Tuscaloosa. Both Georgia and LSU took the Crimson Tide right to the wire – Alabama was on the fortunate side to come out of those two “coin-flip” games with a pair of victories, and the Crimson Tide didn’t sniff a pointspread cover as favorites of a touchdown or more in either ballgame. And Alabama was a dramatically overvalued commodity down the stretch, notching just a single pointspread cover (against hapless Auburn) in five games since the beginning of November.

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly’s track record is nothing short of extraordinary – Nick Saban-esque, one might call it. He started with a no-name Division II program and built it into a national powerhouse, winning multiple titles at Grand Valley State. He went to Central Michigan, again starting with a bottom-tier program and within three years, they were winning MAC titles, the class of the conference. He went to Cincinnati; a mediocre at best program. Within three years, the Bearcats had an undefeated 12-0 regular season on their resume. This is Kelly’s third year at Notre Dame…

Notre Dame didn’t have an explosive offense this year, held to 30 points or less in nine of its 12 regular season games. But that offense was good enough to win games – all of them! And this Irish defense is no joke, shutting down USC, Oklahoma, BYU, Stanford, Michigan, Miami (FL), Michigan State – you name the opponent; Notre Dame shut ‘em down. They faced eight bowl opponents, including multiple elite teams – every bit as tough a slate as Alabama faced this year. If Irish dual-threat quarterback Everett Golson can avoid heinous mistakes, look for the Irish to keep this one competitive, with a shot at the outright victory.

BCS Championship Game: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Alabama vs. Notre Dame (9.5, 40.5)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES

1. Two of the most storied programs in college football history will square off for the national championship when undefeated and top-ranked Notre Dame collides with No. 2 and reigning champion Alabama on Jan. 7 at Miami's Sun Life Stadium. Despite its unrivaled tradition, Notre Dame has not won a national title since 1988 and has not been atop the rankings since 1993. Alabama, meanwhile, will be chasing its third national championship in the past four years under Nick Saban, who has restored the luster to one of the few programs that can stand up to Notre Dame's legacy. The teams have met six times, with the Fighting Irish winning five.

2. Notre Dame entered the season as an afterthought but slowly climbed up the rankings behind a bruising defense - led by standout linebacker Manti Te'o - that smothered one opponent after another. The Fighting Irish allowed a nation-low 10.3 points per game and withstood a number of close calls as its offense continued to evolve. Notre Dame's formula was similar to the one that brought two championships to Alabama and third-year coach Brian Kelly readily admits he used the Crimson Tide's style of play as a blueprint to get the Irish back into the national picture.

3. There's something to be said for been there, done that, and Alabama's recent experience on the biggest stage cannot be overlook. Never was that more apparent than in last season's BCS championship game, when the Crimson Tide avenged their only regular season loss with a dominating defensive effort in a 21-0 victory over LSU. And while Notre Dame always plays a schedule dotted with top programs, Alabama is part of college football's best conference in the SEC, which, by the way, has won all six BCS title games since its inception in 2006.

4. The Fighting Irish have been utilizing the no-respect card as a motivator throughout the season, and the oddsmakers provided them with more fuel by installing the one-loss Crimson Tide as a 10-point favorite. Notre Dame played perhaps its best game in a 30-13 rout at Oklahoma on Oct. 27 - another contest in which it was a huge underdog and the consensus was that the Irish could not compete.

5. Few would argue that Kelly has done the best coaching job in the country this season in compiling his second 12-0 regular season in four years (the previous one was at Cincinnati in 2009). But Saban is looked upon as a modern-day Bear Bryant in Tuscaloosa, not only winning two national titles with Alabama but claiming one at LSU in 2003. There have been whispers that Saban could be NFL-bound after the season, but he has steadfastly denied the rumors.

LINE: Alabama -9.5, O/U 40.5. Sharp money hit Alabama early at +7.5, +8, and +8.5, pushing the current line value to 9.5, according to BetDSI.eu. The current situation and expectation is the public will be somewhat split on this game as it heads towards kick off. Sharp money is also backing the under at the 41 and 41.5 values. The total has a 2-to-1 money wagered lean on the under and the line is currently sitting at the 40.5 value.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Crimson Tide’s last six bowl games.
* Under is 20-5-1 in Fighting Irish’s last 26 games on grass.

ABOUT ALABAMA (12-1, 7-1 SEC): The Crimson Tide will be happy to match muscle vs. muscle with Notre Dame's defense behind a powerhouse offensive line that averages 315 pounds per man. Alabama has a pair of 1,000-yard backs in junior Eddie Lacy and freshman T.J. Yeldon, who combined for 27 touchdowns and piled up 334 yards in the SEC title game win over Georgia. Quarterback AJ McCarron threw for 26 touchdowns against only three interceptions and showed he was much more than a caretaker of the offense by leading late drives to beat LSU and Georgia. His top weapon is Amari Cooper, who has 53 receptions and nine touchdowns. Notre Dame's defense has been getting all the publicity, but the Crimson Tide have their own elite linebacker in C.J. Mosley and held 10 opponents to less than 14 points while recording four shutouts.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (12-0): Te'o, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, is the heart and soul of a defense that permitted only nine touchdowns overall and two on the ground. He has seven interceptions and played behind a stellar defensive front featuring ends Stephon Tuitt (12 sacks) and Kapron Lewis-Moore sandwiching the massive Louis Nix III. Notre Dame's running back corps of Theo Riddick, Cierre Wood and George Atkinson III combined for 2,000 yards and will test a defense that allowed a national-low 246 yards. Still, Notre Dame's offense revolves around dual-threat quarterback Everett Golson. He threw for 11 touchdowns against five interceptions and had four of of his five-highest passing totals in November. Golson also rushed for 305 yards and five scores and his ability to keep the chains moving against Alabama's defense will be vital.

Alabama vs. Notre Dame
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Say what you want about Nick Saban, just don’t ever imply that the dude isn’t one of the greatest head coaches to ever live. Saban brings his Alabama program to Miami on Monday night with a chance to win a third national championship in four seasons.

Standing in the Crimson Tide’s way is another one of college football’s most storied programs, Notre Dame. Alabama’s presence is no surprise, but the Fighting Irish’s return to prominence in 2012 has been a major stunner.

The oddsmakers still aren’t believing in the Irish,though. As of Sunday afternoon, most books had Alabama (12-1 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) favored by 9½ with the total in the 40-41 range.

The line opened at 7½ at a few books that sent out an early number. However, by the time most spots chimed in, ‘Bama was nine. Since then, the number has bounced around in the 9-10 range for a solid month. The total started at 42, briefly went up to 42½, but has been steadily falling lower since then.

Gamblers can take the Irish on the money line for a plus-290 payout (risk $100 to win $290).

Notre Dame (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS) has had a team-of-destiny-like feel since September when it won nail-biters at home against Purdue (20-17) and Michigan (13-6). The Irish would also narrowly escape with victories in overtime wins at home over Stanford (20-13) and Pittsburgh (29-26). They also went to the wire in South Bend before slipping past BYU, 17-14.

Notre Dame has only been an underdog twice this year, winning outright both times. The Fighting Irish captured a 20-3 win at Michigan St. as a 4½-point underdog. They also went into Norman and stroked Oklahoma by a 30-13 count as 10½-point ‘dogs.

Until the win over Oklahoma, I had serious doubts about Notre Dame. But the doubters had to recognize the significance of mauling the Sooners in their own backyard.

Notre Dame’s success has been all about its defense, a unit that’s fourth in the nation against the run, sixth overall and tops in scoring defense. The Irish allow only 10.3 points per game.

The defense is led by senior leader Manti Te’o, who was the Heisman Trophy runner-up after making seven interceptions and recording 103 tackles.

Back in August, redshirt freshman quarterback Everett Golson won the starting job away from veteran Tommy Rees. The move by Kelly proved to be a stroke of genius.

Golson doesn’t have eye-popping numbers but he has improved throughout the season, and he can beat you with his arm and his legs. Most important, Golson has taken care of the football. He has completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 2,135 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 305 yards and five TDs.

Senior running back Theo Riddick and junior RB Cierre Wood share most of the touches for the ground attack. Riddick rushed for 880 yards and five TDs with a 4.9 yards-per-carry average. Wood, who ran for 1,186 yards in 2011, rushed for 740 yards this year, but he had a sensational 6.9 YPC average.

When Golson looks to pass, his favorite target is junior tight end Tyler Eifert, who is probably the nation’s best at his position. Eifert caught 44 balls for 624 yards and four TDs.

Alabama advanced to the BCS Championship Game with a 32-28 non-covering win over Georgia as a seven-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. In a classic back-and-forth battle for the ages, A.J. McCarron connected with Amari Cooper for a 45-yard scoring strike with 3:15 remaining.

UGA was threatening in the final minute, reaching the eight yard line with 15 ticks left. However, instead of clocking the ball to give themselves at least two more plays, probably three, the Bulldogs inexplicably ran a play and a tipped pass by C.J. Mosley resulted in a UGA catch inbounds. The rest of the clock ticked away and ‘Bama survived a game Georgia effort.

After demolishing everyone in its path in September and October, ‘Bama had a close call with LSU and lost at home to Texas A&M. The Tide won in Baton Rouge thanks to a heroic last-minute drive orchestrated by McCarron, who found T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass for the game-winning score.

McCarron has completed 66.8 percent of his throws for 2,669 yards with an incredible 26/3 TD-INT ratio. Cooper made a team-high 52 receptions for 894 yards and nine TDs.

Alabama has a balanced offensive attack but its ground game is absolutely lethal. Eddie Lacy is a bruising between-the-tackles runner with speed as well. Lacy has rushed for 1,188 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC.

Yeldon had an immediate impact from day one as a true freshman. He rushed for 1,000 yards and 11 TDs while also averaging 6.5 YPC.

During Brian Kelly’s three-year tenure, Notre Dame has compiled a 6-3 spread record with five outright victories in nine underdog situations. Meanwhile, Alabama has failed to cover the spread in both games as a single-digit favorite this year.

The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredibly lucrative 10-2 overall clip for Notre Dame. The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for ‘Bama following back-to-back hits against Auburn and Georgia.

These schools haven’t played each other since 1987 when Notre Dame routed the Tide 37-6 as a seven-point home ‘chalk.’ In 1986, Alabama won a 28-10 decision as a seven-point home favorite.

While Alabama has won three national championships since 1992, Notre Dame is gunning for its first title since Lou Holtz’s team completed a perfect season by beating West Virginia in the 1988 Fiesta Bowl.

Kelly isn’t getting caught up in the historical significance of this game featuring two of the best all-time programs. "The tradition of Alabama and Notre Dame brings special attention to it, but we're just trying to be the best team on Monday, Jan. 7. All of that tradition, what's happened in the past, is not going to help us Jan. 7, but we do respect the traditions."

The only major injury to watch is a foot problem for Alabama senior All-American center Barrett Jones. He was injured against UGA and missed several weeks of practice before returning in the last 5-6 days. Jones will start but will he be at 100 percent? Will his conditioning be where it needs to be? We shall see.

Kickoff is scheduled for Monday night at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

BCS National Championship Game

SEC teams won last six BCS championship games, covering last five as a favorite; only one of six games was decided by less than 10 points, with an average total of 45.8. Brian Kelly won two national titles at D-II level at Grand Valley State, so he's won games like this. Notre Dame is 2-3 in last five bowls, 1-1 under Kelly- they're 6-3 vs spread as underdogs in Kelly era, 2-0 this year. Alabama crushed its first eight opponents, but in last five, they had pair of 4-point wins with loss to Texas A&M, and its mobile QB. Crimson Tide is 6-6 when favored this year, 0-2 if laying single digits; they're 2-6 vs spread last eight times they laid single digits, but also won last three bowls, last two by combined score of 70-7. Irish won five games by 7 or less points, beating Purdue/Pitt by 3 points each; Pitt is only team all year that scored more than 17 points against Notre Dame. Alabama has experience edge at QB, Favorites are 17-16 against spread overall in bowls this season, covering last four; under is 20-14. SEC teams are 5-3 in bowls, 4-3-1 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

Notre Dame vs. Alabama – Point Spread Analysis and Picks
By: David Purdum
Sportingnews.com

Alabama manhandled Michigan in a 41-16 rout on Sept. 1. Three weeks later, Notre Dame benefited from six Michigan turnovers to pull out a 13-6 win over the Wolverines.

The Crimson Tide led Michigan, 31-0, in the second quarter and finished with 199 yards rushing and 5.5 yards per carry. Quarterback A.J. McCarron passed for 199 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in the season-opening win at Cowboys Stadium.

In its hard-fought victory over Michigan in South Bend, the Irish led, 10-3, midway through the fourth quarter. Notre Dame managed just 94 yards on the ground, averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Quarterback Everett Golson threw two interceptions in eight attempts, before being replaced by Tommy Rees in the second quarter.

Handicappers who accurately gauge the relevance of those contrasting results in tonight’s BCS National Championship Game (8:30 p.m., ESPN) will have a leg-up on ending the college football season on a winning note.

Notre Dame also has conspicuous performances in wins over Purdue (20-17), BYU (17-14) and Pittsburgh (29-26, 3OT). But it’s hard to bash the Irish’s schedule too much. After all, according to the Sagarin Ratings, Notre Dame’s schedule (27th) was stronger than Alabama’s (35th).

The Irish (12-0, 7-5 ATS) have wins over Stanford, Oklahoma and Southern Cal.

Still, Alabama (12-1, 6-7 ATS) is the clear-cut favorite, a role Nick Saban’s team has become quite accustomed to over the last three seasons.

This is the 40th consecutive game the Crimson Tide have been the favorites, a streak that dates back to the 2008 SEC Championship Game.

Alabama is 23-16 against the spread during its run.

SEC teams have won and covered the spread in six consecutive BCS National Championship Games.

Line: Alabama -9.5

Total: 40

This is the biggest spread for a national championship game since 2003, when Miami was favored by 12 over Ohio State. Florida State was an 11-point favorite over Oklahoma in the 2001 title game. In both instances, the underdog won outright.

The Tide opened as low as -7.5, but were bet up quickly and have been holding steady between 9- and 10-point favorites at most Las Vegas sports books for over a month.

The total opened as high as 42.5 at the Las Vegas Wynn, but has steadily come down. The LVH SuperBook briefly had the total at 39.5 on Friday.

“The sharp bettors’ opinions are not split on the total,” said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the SuperBook. “They like the UNDER.”

So does the SuperBook’s college football specialist, highly-respected oddsmaker Ed Salmons.

Alabama is averaging 38.46 and allowing 10.69 points per game. Notre Dame is averaging 26.75 and allowing 10.33 points per game.

Ten of Notre Dame’s 12 games this season went under the total.

Notable stats & trends

Alabama went 2-5 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.

Notre Dame went 5-4 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.

Alabama has 14 NFL Draft prospects. Notre Dame has 10, according to NFLDraftScouts.com.

Alabama went 1-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.

Underdog in AP No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups are 20-8-1 ATS (8-8 in bowls).

Brian Kelly is 3-2 ATS in bowl games, 1-1 ATS at Notre Dame.

Nick Saban is 7-6 ATS in bowl games, 4-1 ATS at Alabama.

Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowls.

Five of Alabama’s last six bowl games have gone OVER the total.

Fighting Irish outlook: Golson, a sophomore, has never been spectacular, but he gives the offense a dual-threat at quarterback. He threw 11 touchdowns with five interceptions this season. He also ran for five scores.

But Notre Dame relies more heavily on its defense, and it’s a good one, led by all-everything linebacker Manti T’eo. The Irish are No. 1 in scoring defense, fourth in rushing defense and fifth in total defense.

Kicker Kyle Brindza made five field goals against USC, including a career-long 52-yarder. But he’s missed eight kicks between 34 and 43 yards.

Crimson Tide outlook: McCarron has been brilliant in his second season as the starter, throwing 26 touchdowns with only three interceptions. The Tide’s running game ravaged a Georgia defense loaded with NFL talent. And freshman receiver Amari Cooper has emerged as a weapon of mass destruction.

Alabama’s defense has been stout and should be fired up after hearing about how Georgia moved up and down the field on them for a full month.

Kicker Jeremy Shelley is money from short range. Cade Foster is the Tide’s option for field goals over 40 yards and has been so-so.

What The Linemakers are saying: There are differing opinions from the guys on the game – the majority siding with Notre Dame and the points. But the one common ground among them is the UNDER. The top two scoring defenses in college football going toe-to-toe make it seem unlikely that either team will have an easy time offensively. Things might be different if Alabama or Notre Dame was facing a passing offense like a Georgia or Texas A&M. But both of these teams love to run the ball and both of these defenses stop the run better than most.

hey blade where do you get your info from and i bet alot on sports and would like to talk to you for a bit

I get it from all over the web, if you look under the title of each article you will see the site I get it from.