BCS Championship: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at the Rose Bowl in the BCS Championship Game.
Oddsmakers currently have the Crimson Tide listed as 4-point favorites versus the Longhorns, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
Colt McCoy ran for the only TD on the night as Texas defeated Nebraska 13-12 in Week 14. Texas failed to cover the 14-point spread, while the 25 points went UNDER the posted total of 47.
Hunter Lawrence booted two field goals for Texas in that win.
Alabama beat Florida 32-13 in the SEC championship game at the Georgia Dome in Week 14.
Alabama covered as a 5.5-point underdog in that contest, while the final score played OVER the 41-point total.
Team records:
Texas: 13-0 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Alabama: 13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS
Texas most recently:
When playing in January are 5-2
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 5-5
Alabama most recently:
When playing in January are 2-2
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When favored at home are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TEXAS (13 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (13 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TEXAS vs. ALABAMA
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas vs. Alabama
Texas
27-13 ATS as an underdog
4-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less
Alabama
2-8 ATS off DD SU win as a dog
13-4 Under off BB conference games
What Bettors Need To Know: BCS Championship
By DAVID PAYNE
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 45.5)
It’s cold outside. Anyone ready to sweat?
The National Championship Game is poised to deliver.
Alabama and Texas are evenly matched, with coaching staffs that are very familiar with each other.
This isn’t Ohio State-Florida or LSU-Ohio State. This is a game between two elite teams with comparable amounts of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Neither team is going to be overwhelmed by the other’s speed, athleticism or talent. And neither staff is going to get out-schemed.
“It's really funny when you start looking at the defenses," Texas coach Mack Brown told the Associated Press. "They're exactly the same. The calls are the same. That's the positive for us. The negative is that both staffs will be trying to out-think what the other one is going to do, because we know so much about each other."
Like the line suggests, the game appears destined to be decided by around one score. A wider margin would be a mild surprise, and anything remotely resembling a blowout would be a complete shock.
Crank up the AC, boys and girls, because the BCS National Championship Game has all the makings of a real sweater.
The Line
Alabama opened up as a 4-point favorite in Las Vegas and as high as -5 at several offshore sites.
“If the game was played this week, Alabama would have been -7,” oddsmaker Pete Korner told Covers.com directly after the opening line went up in early December. “But we’ve seen it so many times, these teams playing their best football at the end of the season, only to have a month off before the bowl game. It’s a momentum stopper.
“Even though, [the line] went up to just under a touchdown, we still believe we will have good two-way action at number below six by kickoff.”
Korner was spot on. Early action on the Crimson Tide pushed the number up to as high as -6 in the middle of December. But, as of late Monday afternoon, it was back down to -4, with a bunch of -3.5s available.
It might get down to -3 by Thursday’s 8:35 p.m. ET kickoff, but don’t expect it to go any lower. Likewise, Texas backers shouldn’t expect to get any more than +4 at the absolute most.
Moneyline players are looking at laying -170 on Alabama and will be getting +150 on Texas.
The Total
It opened at 44.5 and has moved up slightly. On Monday, it was up to 45 with several 45.5s available.
The Crimson Tide went 6-6-1 over/under with an average total of 46.07.
Alabama averages 31.69 points per game and allows just 11. Against the three top statistical defenses it faced—Florida, Virginia Tech and South Carolina—the Tide averaged 28.6 points.
Texas averages 40.69 points per game and allows 15.15.
The Longhorns went 6-7 over/under with an average total of just under eight touchdowns, 55.88. Against the two toughest defenses it faced—Oklahoma and Nebraska--Texas averaged 14.5 points per game.
Teams that gave them trouble
Alabama had a tough time putting away Tennessee and South Carolina at home. Quarterback Greg McElroy struggled in both of those games, throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns and passing for just 212 yards combined.
South Carolina and Tennessee also had more first downs than Alabama in their close losses to the Tide.
Texas struggled in its three rivalry games, nipping Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas A&M by a combined score of 99-76. The Red Raiders, Sooners and Aggies were the only three teams to pass for more than 300 yards against the Longhorns.
The Longhorns also had trouble with Nebraska, especially slowing down defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Alabama’s mammoth defensive tackle Terrence Cody isn’t as athletic as Suh, but he is a force in the middle.
Statistically speaking
Stats-wise, it’s extremely equal with both squads among the national leaders in multiple categories on offense and defense.
Alabama is No. 2 in total defense. Texas is No. 3. The Tide has a better rushing attack, led by Heisman winner Mark Ingram. The Longhorns are more potent through the air, led by Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley.
But there are a couple of statistical mismatches that could be a factor.
Texas has one of the best kickoff return units in the nation. Featuring Shipley, the Horns average 27.8 yards per return, fourth most in the nation.
The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable on kickoffs and allowed returns for touchdowns to Virginia Tech and Florida International early in the season. Alabama’s kickoff-return defense ranks 116th in the nation.
The Longhorn pass rush is also superior to Alabama’s, averaging three sacks per game.
Quarterbacks
Advantage Texas, but not by much.
McCoy has much more big-game experience than McElroy and will be starting his fourth bowl game. McElroy will be starting his first.
McCoy’s also the better runner out of the two, although McElroy looked nimble in the SEC Championship Game against Florida.
McCoy is 17th in the nation in passing efficiency, with a 27-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. McElroy is 26th in pass efficiency with a 19-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio.
Key Notes
• There are no significant injuries or suspensions for either team.
• Heisman trophy winners are 1-6 in BCS National Championship Games.
• Both teams have reliable kickers, with Texas’ Hunter Lawrence converting on 22-of-25 attempts and Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin connecting on 29-of-33 attempts.
Alabama vs. Texas
By Brian Edwards
The Rose Bowl will be filled with burnt orange and deep crimson Thursday when Texas and Alabama collide for the BCS Championship Game in Pasadena. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Crimson Tide as a four-point favorite with a total of 45.
Those opening numbers were released on Dec. 6. The initial betting surge was on Alabama, prompting books to move the number to five and as high as 5½ at some spots. However, by Dec. 19, most betting shops were down to 4½. As of Wednesday night, most books had ‘Bama at four with the total slightly increased to 45½ or 46.
Gamblers can back Texas (13-0 straight up, 5-7-1 against the spread) on the money line for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).
Alabama (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) is coming off its best performance of the season, a 32-13 demolition of previously-unbeaten and top-ranked Florida at the Georgia Dome. The Tide spanked the Gators as a 4½-point underdog, avenging last season’s 31-20 loss in the SEC Championship Game. Nick Saban’s team hooked up money-line backers with a plus-170 return (paid $170 on $100 wagers).
Mark Ingram, who won the Heisman Trophy a week later, was the catalyst against UF. Ingram rushed for 113 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. He also had a pair of receptions for 76 yards, including a huge 69-yard gainer on a screen pass that completely swung the momentum back into ‘Bama’s favor after Florida had cut the deficit to 12-10 in the second quarter.
Junior quarterback Greg McElroy completed 12-of-18 passes for 232 yards and one touchdown. Most importantly, he didn’t commit a turnover. Marquis Maze also had a big night, hauling in five catches for 96 yards.
While Alabama was cruising to the SEC title in Atlanta, Texas was scratching and clawing to get past Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game later that night. The Longhorns captured a 13-12 win thanks to Hunter Lawrence’s 46-yard field goal as time expired.
The win didn’t come without controversy, however. On the play before Lawrence’s winning boot, Colt McCoy inexplicably rolled out to his right and threw an incomplete pass that took entire too long. In fact, the clock ran out and the Cornhuskers began to rush the field in celebration.
But the officials (or the powers-that-be for the BCS?) decided to put one more tick back on the clock. And that was all Texas and Lawrence would need. Nevertheless, Nebraska backers easily cashed tickets catching 14 points and we nearly saw a stunning upset like the one the ‘Horns gave the ‘Huskers at the same game back in 1996 (we Gators remember that contest fondly, and here’s another tip of the cap to former Texas QB James Brown for his play on that day).
Not only did McCoy’s decision making at crunch time look shaky against Nebraska, but his play was extremely mediocre as well. He connected on 20-of-36 throws for 186 yards but was intercepted three times and didn’t have a TD toss. On the flip side, Mack Brown’s defense was nothing short of sensational, limiting Nebraska to merely 106 yards of total offense.
But McCoy’s struggles at Cowboys Stadium were a surprise. In fact, he rarely has a hard time against opposing defense. Though the senior signal caller hasn’t put up the monster numbers he produced in 2008, he hasn’t been too shabby. McCoy has connected on 70.5 percent of his passes for 3,512 yards with a 27/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Senior wide receiver Jordan Shipley is McCoy’s favorite target. Shipley has 106 receptions for 1,363 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’ll square off against Alabama’s Javier Arenas, who is one of the SEC premier cover corners.
McElroy’s job is to take care of the football first and foremost. With the Tide’s power running game and outstanding defense, he doesn’t need to produce big numbers. With that said, his most important stat – a 17/4 TD-INT ratio – is one of the best in the country. McElroy has completed 61.1 percent of his attempts for 2,450 passing yards.
For the season, Ingram rushed 249 times for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. His back-up, freshman Trent Richardson, is a big-time player as well. Richardson has six rushing TDs and a 5.1 YPC average.
Julio Jones is McElroy’s favorite wideout and he comes into this game healthier than he’s been all season. Jones has 42 catches for 573 yards and four touchdowns, but those stats don’t do justice to the type of talent he is because of the focus opposing secondary’s give him.
During Brown’s tenure in Austin, Texas has been an underdog just 16 times. The Longhorns own an 11-5 spread record in those situations. As for Alabama, it has a 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
Alabama is playing for the national title for the first time since 1992, when it trounced Miami 34-13 at the Sugar Bowl. Yeah, it’s been a long 17 years in Tuscaloosa, where football is king and nothing else matters.
Texas won the BCS Championship Game at this same venue in 2005 in one of the greatest college football games ever played. Vince Young carried the Longhorns to a 41-38 win over USC as seven-point underdogs. Young scored on a fourth-and-goal scramble in the final seconds. Just the season before, Brown’s team won a 38-37 decision against Michigan thanks to Young’s brilliant play. In the 2004 Rose Bowl, however, the ‘Horns failed to cover the number as 7 ½-point favorites.
Totals have been a wash for Alabama (6-6-1) in 2009, but we should note that the Tide has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 in its last eight games. Meanwhile, Texas has watched the ‘under’ post a 7-6 overall record. However, the ‘over’ is 3-1 in the Longhorns’ last four outings.
Sportsbook.com has a slew of proposition bets available for gamblers. For instance, there are odds for who will win MVP honors. McCoy is the plus-200 favorite, while Ingram has plus-250 odds (risk $100 to win $250). McElroy’s number is plus-600, while Jones and Shipley share plus-800 odds (risk $100 to win $800).
Bettors can also wager on Ingram’s total TDs scored. The odds for the only Heisman winner in Alabama history to be kept out of the end zone are plus-150 (risk $100 to win $150). For one TD, Ingram’s odds are plus-125. The other numbers are as follows: two TDs (+275), three TDs (+800) and four TDs or more (plus-2000, paid $2,000 on $100 bets).
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
vegasinsider.com
(2) Texas (13-0, 5-7-1 ATS) vs. (1) Alabama (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
Two schools that just missed out on the opportunity to play for the national championship a year ago get that chance tonight as top-ranked Alabama squares off against the No. 2 Longhorns in the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl.
Texas barely squeaked into this contest, getting a last-second 46-yard field goal that snuck just inside the left upright as time expired to upend Nebraska 13-12 in the Big 12 championship game back on Dec. 5. In the victory, the Longhorns – who never threatened to cover as a 14-point chalk – gained just 202 yards (including 18 rushing yards on 38 carries), and star QB Colt McCoy was sacked a career-high nine times and threw three interceptions and no TD passes. However, the defense stepped up as it has all season, limiting Nebraska to a paltry 106 total yards (67 rushing, 39 passing), two third-down conversions and five first downs, while recording three interceptions.
Unlike their opponent tonight, the Crimson Tide punched their ticket to the BCS Championship Game in emphatic fashion, crushing then-No. 1 Florida 32-13 as a five-point underdog to win the SEC championship Dec. 5. In ending the Gators’ national-best 22-game winning streak and their hopes for a repeat national championship, Alabama boasted eye-popping edges of 490-335 in total yards, 251-88 in rushing yards, 26-13 in first downs and 39:37-20:23 in time of possession. Star RB Mark Ingram, who would win Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy a week later, rushed for 113 yards and three TDs in helping his team avenge a 31-20 loss to Florida in the 2008 SEC championship game that kept Alabama out of last year’s BCS title contest.
Texas is back in the BCS Championship Game for the second time and the first since the 2005 season, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to a thrilling 38-35 upset win of USC as a seven-point underdog in a game that was also played at the Rose Bowl. Texas is seeking its fifth national championship.
Alabama can lay claim to its 12th national championship with a victory tonight, the most recent coming in 1992. That year, the Crimson Tide knocked off top-ranked Miami 34-13 as an eight-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl to finish off a 13-0 campaign.
Teams from the SEC have won the last three BCS title games both SU and ATS. The favorite has won and covered the last two years following a 4-1 SU and ATS run by the underdog. The winner has covered in all 11 BCS Championship Games.
Tonight marks the ninth time these college football powerhouses have met, with Texas dominating the rivalry with a 7-0-1 record. However, the most recent meeting came way back in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, which the Longhorns won 14-12 as a 1½-point underdog. The average final score in the previous eight meetings – five coming in bowl games – was 16-8.
Alabama is in its 58th bowl game, by far the most in the nation, and its 31 bowl victories are tied for first with USC. However, after losing to Florida in last year’s SEC title game, the Crimson Tide failed to show up in the BCS Sugar Bowl and got rolled by undefeated Utah 31-17 as a 10-point favorite. ‘Bama coach Nick Saban is 4-6 SU and ATS in bowl games (1-1 SU and ATS with the Tide), and this storied program is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight postseason contests.
Texas ranks second to the Crimson Tide with 49 postseason appearances. Last year in the BCS Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns got a touchdown with 16 seconds left to rally past Ohio State 24-21, but failed to cover as an eight-point favorite, falling to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowls. Coach Mack Brown is 12-6 in 18 career bowl games, but just 8-10 ATS.
Texas played just two competitive contests all year, edging Oklahoma 16-13 as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17 and holding off Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns’ other 11 wins were double-digit routs, including nine victories of 24 points or more. With the exception of Oklahoma and Nebraska, Texas scored at least 34 points in every game, eclipsed 40 points nine times and held nine opponents to 14 points or less. Only Texas Tech (24 points) and Texas A&M (39 points) topped 20 points against the Texas defense.
Alabama kicked off the season with a 34-24 rout of Virginia Tech as a 6½-point favorite at a neutral venue in Atlanta, the first of 11 double-digit victories. Like Texas, the Crimson Tide were challenged just twice: getting a blocked field goal as time expired to hold off Tennessee 12-10 as a 14-point home favorite on Oct. 24, then rallying from a 14-0 deficit at archrival Auburn on Nov. 27, winning 26-21 but failing to cover as a 10-point road chalk. Alabama scored 34 points or more in each of its first five games but just once over its final eight contests, when it averaged 26.5 ppg. However, the defense didn’t bend all year, holding 12 consecutive opponents to 21 points or less after the Virginia Tech game, including yielding 15 points or fewer 10 times.
After finishing second in last year’s Heisman voting, McCoy returned to Texas for his senior season and completed 70.5 percent of his throws for 3,512 yards with 27 TDs against 12 INTs. He also rushed for 342 yards and three scores. McCoy, who took over for Vince Young following the 2005 championship season, is a four-year starter who has connected on 70.1 percent of his passes for 13,244 yards with 112 TDs and 45 INTs, plus 1,571 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs.
McCoy guides an attack that ranked in the Top 15 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg), total offense (432.3 ypg) and passing offense (279.7 ypg). Texas also rushed for 152.6 ypg (4.1 per carry). Defensively, the Longhorns have one of the stingiest units in the country, allowing 15.2 ppg, 251.1 total ypg, 188.8 passing ypg and 62.3 rushing ypg, figures that ranked eighth, third, 23rd and first, respectively. Texas allowed opposing RBs to gain just 2 yards per carry, gave up an NCAA-low five rushing TDs and led the country with 24 interceptions.
En route to winning the Heisman Trophy, Alabama sophomore Ingram rushed for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ingram was aided by QB Greg McElroy, who overcame a midseason slump and completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,450 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs. Together, Ingram and McElroy lead an offense that averaged 31.7 ppg and 413.8 total ypg, with a rushing attack that netted 215.8 ypg (12th best in the country) and 5.1 ypc.
Alabama led the nation in scoring defense (11 ppg allowed) and was second to TCU in total defense (241.8 ypg). The Tide were seventh in passing defense (163.8 ypg), tied for seventh with 20 INTs and second to Texas in rushing defense (78.1 ypg, 2.8 yards per carry). Like the Longhorns, ‘Bama surrendered just five rushing scores.
Since Brown took over in Austin, the Longhorns have been an underdog 15 times, going 10-5 ATS with nine outright upsets (including the 2005 national title game). Going back further, Texas is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a ‘dog at neutral sites. Texas had a 4-1 ATS run toward the end of the season, but failed to cover in its final two contests, and it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-4 in non-conference games and 2-6-1 against winning teams.
Alabama is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 games as a single-digit chalk, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight when favored by 3½ to 10 points. The Tide have also cashed in five of their last six games against Big 12 opponents.
The under is on runs of 6-2 for Texas at neutral sites, 8-2 for Texas against winning teams, 5-2-1 for Alabama overall, 5-1-1 for Alabama as a favorite and 4-1-1 when Alabama plays on grass. Finally, last year’s BCS title tilt between Florida and Oklahoma (24-14 final) stayed under the total, ending a 4-0 “over” run in this contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
All-The-Marbles
By SportsPic
Top-ranked Crimson Tide featuring Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram lock horns with Texas and star quarterback Colt McCoy in a matchup for the BCS championship at the Rose Bowl Thursday night. Tide looking for its first national title since 1992 will no doubt try to pound Texas into submission with Ingram (1,542 RY, 15 TD's) and it's 12th ranked ground game (215.8 yds). No easy task, Longhorns ranked first in the country with 62.3 rushing yards allowed per contest. Meanwhile, Texas seeking its second BCS championship in five years will try to shred Alabama formidable secondary (163.8 yds) with McCoy (3,512 PY, 27 TD's) guiding it's passing attack (279.7 yds). Spread-wise Tide enter 8-5 ATS on the season, 5-3-1 ATS last nine as six or less point favorites, 5-1 ATS last six vs Big 12 opponents. Longhorns come in 5-7-1 ATS this campaign, 8-3-1 ATS last twelve as underdogs of six or less and a vig-losing 2-2 vs SEC opponents. Although, Texas has dominated Alabama in eight meetings going 7-0-1 with the last matchup a 14-12 win in the 1982 Cotton Bowl oddsmakers have Nick Saban's troops anywhere from 3½ to 4½-point favorite depending on locale. Other trends of note: Texas is 7-1 (3-5 ATS) it's last eight bowling, Alabama 3-5 both SU & ATS it's last eight.
BCS Championship Game Preview and Pick
Predictem.com
The top two teams in the nation will clash for all the marbles January 7th to determine this season’s BCS Champion, when the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide play the No. 2-ranked Texas Longhorns in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Whether or not this is "thee "matchup everyone around college football wants as the 2009 national title game is debatable, mostly due to how each of these teams comes into this bowl game following their respective conference title games.
For the Tide, they come in as the undefeated top-ranked team in the land after dominating the previous No. 1 and defending champion Florida Gators in the SEC Championship, 32-13. Running back Mark Ingram added 113 yards and three touchdowns to his Heisman Trophy winning season, the Tide’s defense made Tim Tebow cry, and head coach Nick Saban and his Tide will roll into the title game as a heavy favorite.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns struggled mightily against the 9-4 Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Conference Championship game, winning because of a somewhat controversial call at the end that allowed Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence to hit a game-winning 46-yarder as time expired for a 13-12 victory. Thanks to an added extra second on the clock and Lawrence’s calm nerves head coach Mack Brown will be coaching in another title game and quarterback Colt McCoy will get to end his Longhorns career playing for the big crystal football.
As expected, Alabama opened this game as solid favorites and oddsmakers opened the point spread at 5.5-points. The opening 5.5 number has stood up and can still be found at a few sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore, but a majority of the Internet sportsbooks have dropped the line to Bama minus -5 points with a few -4.5s (Bookmaker) as well.
The over/under total opened at 44.5 and a few books still list that as the total on their boards, but most of the offshore sportsbooks have moved the total up the hook to 45.
The fact that these two teams both made it into the BCS Championship game is no coincidence, as both teams feature prolific offenses, solid kickers and special teams, backed up with championship caliber defense.
Both offenses rely heavily on one player to be the workhorse, with Ingram and McCoy being those players for their respective teams.
Ingram leads a Bama attack that is a classic pro-style offense, one that prefers to grind out yards play after play behind a mammoth offensive line to the tune of 215.8 yards a game. When you average 6.2 yards a carry, as Ingram did throughout the season, why would you mess with success.
But just when you start creeping an eighth man into the box to stop the run, quarterback Greg McElroy (2,450 yds., 17 TD, 4 INT) drops back on play-action and finds either Julio Jones (573 yds., 4 TD, 13.6 ypc) or Marquis Maze (519 yds., 2 TD, 17.3 ypc) in a one-on-one situation down the field.
The Longhorns snap the ball to McCoy in the shotgun of their spread-attack and let him either: throw the ball (3,512 yards; 279.7 ypg), or run the read-option in the running game (152.6 ypg). McCoy has some nice weapons around him, like Jordan Shipley (1,363 yds., 11 TD) and Tre’ Newton (5.0 yards per carry, 6 TD), but it’s no secret the senior quarterback is the offense, leading them to the nation’s 3rd- best scoring mark on the season (40.7 ppg).
Both offenses will have their work cut out for them though, because this game is going to end up being all about the two top-10 defenses that are among the stingiest in the game.
Bama’s defense put up unbelievable numbers for a team in the ultra- tough SEC, finishing the year allowing just 241.8 yards a game (2nd in country) and ended as the nation’s top scoring defense allowing just 11 points per game. But Texas has a defense that can match Bama athlete-for-athlete, finishing the season right behind the Tide ranked 3rd overall (251.1 ypg) and 8th in scoring (15.2 ppg).
If the defense has their way, this game could hinge on who passes the ball better, which is a clear advantage to Texas. Both defenses have been impossible to run on this season (Texas 1st – 62.3 ypg; Bama 2nd – 78.1 ypg), but if one finally gives, it could cost them the national title.
Texas and Alabama have not met on the field in recent history, despite being two of the more storied college programs in the era.
Another intangible to consider when handicapping this game is the fact that both Texas coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite both coached under Bama coach Nick Saban. Muschamp was with Saban at LSU, while Applewhite got his first coordinator’s job from Saban at Bama in 2007. I’m not saying it’s going to make a difference, but if both of your coordinator’s worked against the enemy you can guarantee their will be plenty of mind games and scheming to outscheme the opponent in this game for added drama.
Badger’s Pick: If this game were right away, I think Alabama would run away with it. But instead we have 33 days between the conference title games and the BCS title game, which gives Texas plenty of time to prepare. Likewise for Bama. Without a strong feeling for either side, I’m going to put my money on the under because both of these defenses are too good for this game to get too far out of hand. Take the under of 45.
Tips and Trends
Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Longhorns: Texas is playing in this BCS Championship game thanks to a single second. Texas finished the season 13-0 SU but were only 5-7-1 ATS. The Longhorns were 3-3-1 ATS away from home this year. Today marks the 1st time all season the Longhorns are the listed underdog, and it's only the 3rd time this season they are facing less than a double digit point spread. QB Colt McCoy leads an offense that was 14th in the country in passing yards with 279 YPG. McCoy threw over 3,500 YDS while completing better than 70% of his passes. McCoy also had 30 total TDs this year, and finished as the 2nd leading rusher on the team. WR Jordan Shipley is McCoy's main target, as he had over 1,300 YDS with 106 REC and 11 TDs for the season. Defensively, the Longhorns only allowed 251 YPG, which ranked them 3rd in the country. They also allowed less than 63 YPG on the ground, the fewest in the nation.
Texas is 3-7 ATS last 10 Bowl games.
Under is 8-2 last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - OL Mason Walters (foot) is doubtful.
DL Calvin Howell (unknown) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Crimson Tide (-4, O/U 46): Alabama will be playing in their NCAA record 58th bowl game today, with the national championship at stake. Alabama snapped Florida's 22 game winning streak in winning the SEC Championship and punching their ticket for tonight. The Crimson Tide are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. Alabama is 5-1 ATS away from home this year. Alabama is also 3-0 ATS involving any single digit point spread. Heisman Trophy RB Mark Ingram ran for over 1,500 YDS and had 15 TDs this season. Overall, the Crimson Tide had the 12th best rushing attack in the country, at 215 YPG. The biggest reason for Alabama going undefeated this year is their defense. The Crimson Tide allowed the fewest points in the nation at 11 PPG. This Tide defense was also 2nd in the country allowing only 241 YPG. 10 of the Crimson Tide's 13 opponents were held under 20 PTS this season. Alabama has never beaten Texas in 8 lifetime opportunities.
Alabama is 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Big 12.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following an ATS win.
Key iNjuries - DB Rod Woodson (virus) is questionable.
LB Rolando McClain (virus) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)