BCS National Championship Game News and Notes

BCS Betting Preview: Why Oregon beats Auburn
By: Stephen Nover

A slight apology to Texas Christian University, but the NCAA got it right this season.

Oregon-Auburn is a natural matchup for the BCS National Championship Game. The question now becomes which unbeaten team is the right one to back?

The college football betting line is Auburn minus three with an ‘over/under’ of 74.

That makes Oregon very attractive as an underdog. Several hotels in Las Vegas actually opened the Ducks as the favorite.

Early money has been on Auburn. Expect the public to back the Tigers, too, as the Jan. 10 game draws closer. Auburn captured the Southeastern Conference beating South Carolina in impressive fashion, 56-17, as four-point favorites in the league championship game. That is going to stay with bettors.

So is the image of Cam Newton, the most dominant player in the country, and the fact that SEC schools have won the last four national championships.

There’s no rush to wager on Oregon right now. Speculation is the line will go up rather than down. The Gold Sheet newsletter, whose power rankings are universally respected, has Auburn one-point better than Oregon.

It’s easy to conclude the value is with Oregon at plus three. A money line wager probably is the way to go to with a big total and small spread.

Can the Ducks win, though?

The SEC is the strongest conference in the country again and this was a mediocre year in the Pac-10 Conference.

Oregon’s offense, however, is even more potent than Auburn’s plus the Ducks are better defensively. No team averaged more yards per game than Oregon at 542.1. The Ducks also led the nation in scoring averaging 49.3 points a game and were No. 3 in rushing at 309.9 yards on the ground per game.

LaMichael James led the nation in rushing with 1,682 yards and rushing touchdowns with 21. He had nine 100-yard rushing games averaging 6.1 yards a carry. Kenjon Barner rushed for 537 yards while averaging an even-higher 6.6 yards per rush attempt. Quarterback Darron Thomas ran for 492 yards and averaged 5.8 yards a run.

Auburn has a stingy run defense allowing 104 yards a game on the ground, which is ninth-best in the country. However, the Tigers ranked 105th in pass defense surrendering 250.5 yards per game through the air.

Thomas isn’t Newton, but he is a good two-way threat. Thomas has completed 60.6 percent of his throws for 2,500 yards with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28-to-seven. That’s as many touchdown passes as Newton has and one less interception despite throwing 74 more times.

The Ducks’ defense is stronger than Auburn’s ranking 27th in total defense giving up 327.8 yards a game. The Tigers rate 52nd in total defense allowing 354.5 yards per contest and are 54th in scoring defense giving up 24.5 points a game.

No player is more valuable to his team than Newton. The Ducks will be primed to stop him. They rank 19th in run defense holding foes to 113.8 yards on the ground.

Oregon also has a ball-hawking secondary that has helped the Ducks achieve a plus 13 takeaway/giveaway ratio. The Ducks have been strong in the Red Zone holding foes to less than 50 percent in Red Zone touchdowns.

The venue is another plus for Oregon. The matchup is being held at the University of Phoenix Stadium a distance of 938 miles from Oregon’s campus. Auburn is coming from Alabama, which is almost twice as far.

The Ducks tasted a big-time bowl game last season when they lost 26-17 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. That defeat has been a motivator for the Ducks and a learning factor.

Experience is a great teacher. The Ducks will be ready this year. Both teams have explosive offensive talent, but look for Oregon to be the one that finishes on top.

BCS Betting Preview: Why Auburn beats Oregon
By: David Schwab

The final BCS rankings are in and there is little doubt the system got things right this season as the top two schools in the country, Auburn and Oregon, are set to play one another on January 10 in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game.

Before the season began these two teams were not the most likely candidates to climb to the top two spots in the country. Auburn (13-0) opened as the fourth favorite to win the SEC West behind Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, and opened as high as 50/1 to win a national title. Oregon (12-0) was the odds-on-favorite to win the Pac-10 but opened at 20/1 to win the BCS.

Nonetheless, these two teams passed every test they faced and deserve to be in this game. The big question now is which team wins?

Most of the sports books have opened the Tigers as a three-point favorite with an ‘over/under’ line set at 74. Auburn minus three points is an early Christmas gift as this line should go nowhere but up over the next few weeks because based on statistics, strength of schedule and past trends it clearly has a significant edge in this game.

This matchup features the two most explosive offenses in college football that have primarily made their living running the ball. Auburn ended the season ranked sixth in the nation averaging 287.2 rushing yards per game while Oregon was even better, coming in fourth with 303.5 yards per game.

Much of the Tigers’ success can be attributed to having an extremely versatile quarterback in Cameron Newton, who threw for 2,589 yards and ran for a team-high 1,409 yards which also happened to be 10th best in country.

The Ducks counter with running back LaMichael James, who was ranked first in the nation in rushing with 1,682 yards. Diversity is the spice of life, so give the advantage in this category to Newton.

These are also two of the most prolific scoring teams in the country with Auburn averaging 42.7 points per game and Oregon averaging 49.3, so the key to this game will most likely be which team’s defense does the best job at slowing things down. Much has been made about the Tigers’ 52nd ranked defense that has given up an average of 354.5 total yards versus a Ducks defense that is ranked 27th overall, giving up an average of 327.8 total yards. One major fact to keep in mind is that Auburn’s run defense ended the season ranked ninth in the country, allowing 104 yards per game verse Oregon’s 19th ranked run defense that gave up 113.8 yards per game.

Auburn’s biggest advantage coming into this game is strength of schedule. Everyone already knows that the SEC is a much stronger conference than the Pac-10, but each team’s schedule clearly bears this out. The Tigers have already beaten three top-10 schools compared to Oregon’s one win over a top-10 team. While the Ducks’ are hanging their hat on their 52-31 win over Stanford, the Tigers have victories over Alabama, Arkansas, LSU and South Carolina (twice) on their resume.

Oregon’s biggest scare this season was a 15-13 win over unranked Cal as an 18 ½-point road favorite, while the Tigers had to battle back from a 24-0 deficit to beat the then-No. 11 Crimson Tide, 28-27, as a 4 ½-point road underdog. Do not underestimate the value of being battle tested in big games as Auburn has already proven it can overcome major adversity while the jury is still out on Oregon.

From a trends standpoint Auburn is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Oregon is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record and 3-3-1 ATS in its last six games overall.

All told, I am not saying that Oregon cannot win this game, I am simply saying they won’t.

BCS National Championship Preview
By: Matt Zemek

The reality surrounding the 2011 BCS National Championship Game of college football is a staggering one. Plainly put, two conferences will finally meet with the eyes of a nation watching every move between the painted white lines.

Yes, it’s really rather breathtaking when you think about it: When Oregon and Auburn butt heads at University of Phoenix Stadium in the Valley of the Sun, it will mark the first time in the 13-year, 57-game history of the Bowl Championship Series that a Pac-10 team and an SEC team have met in a BCS bowl. That’s right – USC never played LSU, Florida or Alabama during Pete Carroll’s reign in Los Angeles. Some of Oregon’s teams from the earlier part of the past decade didn’t play an SEC champion in the Sugar Bowl. The 2004 California Golden Bears weren’t allowed into the BCS bowl rotation; ditto for the 2007 Arizona State Sun Devils. The 2000 Oregon State Beavers gained an at-large BCS bowl bid, but they drew Notre Dame in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl. The enormity of it all is considerable: For a sport that claims to have a national championship (not a regional or a sectional one), college football really has deprived Americans of a genuinely intersectional competition in its biggest and most publicized prizefights. The addition of a plus-one is badly needed in the sport, but since that’s not about to be implemented, at least the SEC and the Pac-10 can finally settle matters on the field, lending extra juice to a game that doesn’t really need it.

The Auburn Tigers and the Oregon Ducks have run the race in the 2010 sprint to the college football finish line. Both teams avoided a whole host of death traps and completed spotless regular seasons to earn their first respective berths in the BCS National Championship Game. A high-scoring video-game showstopper now awaits an eager audience in the western suburb of Phoenix.

The Ducks’ offense just couldn’t be stopped this season in the final 20 minutes of regulation time, unless you were a member of the California Golden Bears’ defense. Oregon would often have a game on its hands after 40 minutes, but coach Chip Kelly’s relentless insistence on tempo from his offense, combined with an insistence on stamina, paid huge dividends for the Ducks. Oregon wore down its foes in the fourth quarter, including the fourth-rated Stanford Cardinal, who got shut out in that period by Kelly’s crew. Oregon rang up big offensive numbers against every team but one, the Golden Bears from Berkeley. Almost every weekend, the Quack Attack rang up at least 35 points and left its opponent feeling very tired in the fourth quarter.

The Auburn Tigers, for their part, boasted the best player in the United States of America. Cam Newton is the first, second, third, fourth and fifth reason coach Gene Chizik has his team in Glendale, Arizona. Newton simply demolished opponents this year with both the run and the pass. The Heisman Trophy winner emphasized the run in the first half of the season but ripened into a polished and appreciably precise passer in November and early December. Auburn’s offensive and defensive lines also gained a lot of confidence as the season went along; a comeback from a 24-0 second-quarter deficit at Alabama was the last but greatest test this team received. It passed every examination in the regular season.

It’s about time the SEC and the Pac-10 played in a BCS bowl. Auburn should be favored because of its physical advantage up front, especially in the form of maniacal pass rusher Nick Fairley, a beast that Oregon’s offense front might not be able to contain. However, with that having been said, one ought to keep in mind this competing thought: No. 2 often rises up and surprises folks in the BCS Championship Game. The No. 2 team wears a chip on its shoulder while No. 1 gets too complacent from the awards banquet circuit and pays attention to too many plaudits in December. The Florida-Ohio State BCS title game (in January 2007) represented just such an example of “two” being better than “one.” That game was played in Glendale. Where’s this game? Glendale.

We’ll see if Oregon can come up with another “two-fer” for the Pac-10 Conference.

STAT PACK

Oregon

Passing Yards Per Game: 233.7 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 48)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 303.5 (Ranking: 4)

Points Per Game: 49.3 (Ranking: 1)

Points Allowed Per Game: 18.4 (Ranking: 14)

Auburn

Passing: 210.5 ypg (Ranking: 69)

Rushing: 287.2 ypg (Ranking: 6)

Scoring: 42.7 ppg (Ranking: 6)

Scoring Defense: 24.5 ppg (Ranking: 54)

What Bettors Need to Know: Oregon vs. Auburn

THE SKINNY: Two of the nation's most prolific offenses and two of the country's most explosive offensive players will square off for the BCS Championship on Jan. 10, when Auburn and Oregon look to cap their perfect seasons with a national title.

Auburn quarterback Cam Newton and Oregon running back LaMichael James weren't Heisman Trophy finalists by accident. Newton, who bested James and the other finalists for the Heisman, has passed for 2,589 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he has added 1,409 rushing yards and 20 more scores. James has been just as effective on the ground, rushing for 1,682 yards and finding pay dirt 21 times.

Both teams are going to put up some points -- Oregon averaged 49.3 in the regular season, and Auburn wasn't far behind at 42.7 -- so the national title could come down to which defense can make a couple of stops.

AUBURN’S EDGE: The Tigers have the distinct advantage of knowing the best player on the field will have the ball in his hands on every snap when they have possession. No one has managed to stop Newton this season, and he has proven his ability to take what the defense gives and beat quality opponents with either his arm or his legs.

OREGON’S EDGE: For all the talk about the explosive offenses -- and the Ducks certainly qualify in that regard, leading the nation in scoring and ranking second in total offense -- Oregon's defense might be its greatest asset against Auburn. The Ducks are 14th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game, but they haven't faced an offense as capable as Auburn's.

THE QUARTERBACKS: By now, you know all there is to know about Auburn's Cam Newton -- that his father worked with an agent to try to orchestrate a pay-for-play scheme, that he was deemed ineligible and immediately reinstated by the NCAA before the SEC title game, and that he had arguably one of the greatest seasons by an offensive player in college football history. Newton leads the nation in passing efficiency, ranks 15th in rushing and has accounted for 49 touchdowns.

All of that makes Oregon's Darron Thomas the forgotten quarterback in this game, a pretty incredible fact considering the season Thomas put together. The sophomore from Houston completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 2,518 yards with 28 touchdown and seven interceptions, and he rushed for 488 yards and five scores.

NFL PROSPECTS: Auburn -- DT Nick Fairley, QB Cam Newton, OT Lee Ziemba. Oregon -- RB LaMichael James, LB Casey Matthews, DT Brandon Bair.

BOWL HISTORY: Auburn is 20-13-2 all-time in bowl games and has pulled off dramatic victories in its past three. The Tigers beat Nebraska 17-14 in the 2006 Cotton Bowl, and needed overtime to win their last two bowls, beating Clemson 23-20 in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl and knocking off Northwestern 38-35 in last year's Outback Bowl.

The Ducks have a spotty bowl history -- they're 9-14 all-time in bowl games -- and it has been even worse in recent years, as they've lost five of their last seven. Oregon is 1-1 in BCS bowls, beating Colorado 38-16 in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl and losing to Ohio State 26-17 in last year's Rose Bowl.

ETC.: Both coaches -- Auburn's Gene Chizik and Oregon's Chip Kelly - are in the second year with their respective programs. … Auburn had to comeback to win eight of its 13 games so far this season, rallying from double-digit deficits four times.

BETTING TRENDS

The SEC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in national championship games since the BCS era began in 1998.

The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games as underdogs but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. The Tigers are, however, just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

The under is 4-1 in Oregon’s last five bowl games but the over is 4-1 in the team’s last five non-conference games.

The under is also 7-1 in Auburn’s last eight bowl games.

BCS Championship Game
By Brian Edwards

Auburn will try to make it five national champions in a row from out of the SEC when it takes on Oregon tonight in Glendale at the 2011 BCS Championship Game. As of early this morning, most betting shops had Auburn (13-0 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) listed as a two-point favorite with the total in the 73-34 range.

Gamblers can take Oregon (12-0 SU, ATS) to win outright for a plus-115 return (risk $100 to win $115).

Auburn won the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 4, demolishing South Carolina by a 56-17 count as a four-point favorite. Cam Newton stole the show again, accounting for six touchdowns. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 335 yards and four TDs without an interception. Newton also rushed for 73 yards and a pair of scores.

One week later, he collected the Heisman Trophy despite an avalanche of controversy that has surrounded Newton and his father, who the NCAA says orchestrated a pay-for-play scheme for his son to attend Mississippi State. Nevertheless, the NCAA has ruled that Newton remains eligible because of two facts:

1-There is no evidence that money ever exchanged hands.

2-There is no evidence that Cam Newton knew what Cecil Newton was up to.

Since early November, the Auburn football program and its fan base have inherited an us-against-the-world mentality. The Loveliest Village on the Plains has been the setting for one of the biggest soap operas in college football history. There has been no wrongdoing by Auburn uncovered yet, but the investigation remains active.

In the glare of the national spotlight, Newton hasn’t flinched on the field. Since the story first went viral in early November, Newton has basically played perfect football in four games. He has 13 touchdown passes compared to only one interception, and that pick only occurred due to a deflection after Newton had hit his target right between the numbers.

Newton has connected on 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,589 yards with a 28/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His scrambling is equally as lethal, as evidenced by 1,408 rushing yards and 20 touchdown runs.

Newton gets all the publicity, and deservingly so, but Gus Malzahn’s high-octane offense has weapons galore. Newton’s favorite target is junior WR Darvin Adams, who had seven receptions for 217 yards and two TDs against the Gamecocks. For the season, Adams has 48 receptions for 909 yards and seven TDs.

Auburn has three outstanding running backs, including sophomore speedster Onterio McCalebb, true freshman Michael Dyer and senior Mario Fannin. Dyer has rushed for 950 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. McCalebb has 763 rushing yards and nine TDs to go with an eye-opening 8.6 YPC average. Fannin has 395 rushing yards and five TDs, averaging 6.5 YPC.

It was McCalebb who busted loose for a 70-yard TD scamper midway through the fourth quarter to lift AU to a 24-17 win over LSU.

AU’s defense is led by one of the nation’s premier pass rushers in DT Nick Fairley, who led the SEC with 10 ½ sacks and 21 tackles for losses. While Newton has garnered most of the headlines, Fairley’s presence and production has been equally important. Without Fairley, AU’s defense is ordinary at best.

Truth be told, the Tigers’ defense, particular their secondary, can be had. Auburn ranked eighth in the SEC in scoring defense, ninth in total defense and 11th in pass defense.

Oregon is coming off a 37-20 win at Oregon State as a 16-point road favorite. LaMichael James rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns, while Darron Thomas threw a pair of TD passes without being intercepted.

James finished second behind Newton in the Heisman voting. The sophomore RB has rushed for 1,702 yards and 21 TDs. Thomas has also put up huge numbers, throwing for 2,500 yards while posting a 28/7 TD-INT ratio. Thomas has also rushed for 492 yards and five TDs. Jeffrey Maehl is Oregon’s top WR, pulling in 68 catches for 943 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Auburn owns a 7-2 spread record in nine games as a single-digit favorite. Oregon is in its first underdog spot of the season.

This is the highest total seen by either team this year. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for Auburn and has gone 8-5 overall. Other than a total of 73 ½ in a 62-24 home win over Chattanooga, AU’s highest total was 61.

Oregon has seen the ‘over’ go 8-4 overall, but the ‘under’ went 2-1 in the Ducks’ three games that had a total in the 70s. The highest total they saw was 72 ½.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Auburn has covered the number at a 6-1 ATS clip in its last seven games. On the other hand, Oregon is 1-2-1 ATS in its last four outings.

Auburn senior PK Wes Byrum has five career game-winning field goals, including two this season (vs. Clemson and at Kentucky). On the other side, Oregon PK Rob Beard has hit 9-of-12 FGs this year, but his longest effort came from just 42 yards out.

BoDog has a slew of proposition bets available for tonight's tilt. The 'over/under' on rushing yards for James is 129 1/2 'over' (minus-130). These are 40-cent lines for these wagers, so the 'under' has a minus-110 price for the Oregon RB's rushing yards. His total for receiving yards is 17 1/2 'over' (-130).

BoDog has Newton's totals for passing yards at 212 1/2 'over' (-130) and rushing yards at 97 1/2 (-120 either way).

BoDog has Newton and James as the 7/2 co-favorites to score the first touchdown of the game. The longshot odds for no TDs to be scored is 75/1.

As usual, the SEC is losing lots of talent to the NFL early. Over the weekend, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson and Georgia WR A.J. Green joined that growing group that already included Alabama’s Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and Marcell Dareus. Also, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett and Florida safety Will Hill have declared. UF cornerback Janoris Jenkins has yet to make an announcement, but he’s listed as the No. 11 pick in the first round on the Big Board for Scouts, Inc.

While the Les-Miles-to-Michigan rumors run rampant, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Miles will appear at Peterson’s press conference announcing his early departure to the pros on Monday.

If Miles does indeed bolt Baton Rouge for Michigan, I'm thinking Gus Malzahn if I'm LSU.

Florida’s new head football coach Will Muschamp received a thunderous ovation when he was introduced at the O-Dome and briefly addressed the crowd during the first timeout of UF’s home game vs. Ole Miss on Saturday night. Muschamp has hired Charlie Weis as his offensive coordinator and Dan Quinn as his DC. Quinn is Seattle's defensive line coach and he'll remain with the Seahawks throughout the NFL Playoffs.

vegasinsider.com

BCS Championship Game Preview: Auburn Tigers vs Oregon Ducks
By Jeff Mattingly

Auburn and Oregon meet for the first time with the BCS National Championship on the line on Monday night at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. “Our football team has been probably one of the most resilient groups of young men I’ve seen in 25 years of doing this,” said Tigers head coach Gene Chizik. This season’s bowl appearance marks the 36th time the Tigers have played in a bowl game, which is the 16th-highest total of any school. The program has compiled a 20-13-2 record in those games, including a 15-6-1 mark since the 1974 Gator Bowl. Tonight’s contest also marks the second bowl game for Chizik as the lead man of a program, tallying a 38-35 win in overtime last year over Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Auburn is 17-19 ATS over the past three years and currently a slight favorite on the college football lines page.

The Tigers have only played eight games in their history against Pac-10 opponents, owning a 5-3 record. Auburn’s last victory over the conference came in a 40-14 blowout of Washington State in the 2006 season opener. All eyes will be on Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Cameron Newton tonight when the Tigers have the ball, rushing for 1,409 yards and 20 touchdowns, while connecting on 28 scores and throwing just six touchdowns through the air. His 10.52 yards per attempt led the country and also helped him become the nation’s top-rated passer. The program has an all-time record of 3-9 against teams ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press poll, which breaks down to an 0-7 record when unranked and 3-2 when ranked at kickoff.

Oregon is seeking to win its first national title in the sport of football and also improve its record to 5-4 all-time against Southeastern Conference schools. “We’re not happy with just going to it, we wanna go and win it now,” said wide receiver Jeff Maehl. “We put too much hard work and time into it to not go there and play well.” The Ducks 12-game winning streak is the longest in school history, betting an 11-game win streak in 2001-02. The program defeated Colorado, 38-16, in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, which was its only other postseason trip to Arizona. The Ducks have won three straight games in the Grand Canyon State. Oregon is 37-16 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

The Ducks have certainly dominated opponents this season and have tallied a 16-0 record when leading after halftime under Chip Kelly the last two years. Since 1999, Oregon is 9-9 against top 10 opponents, including wins in five out of the last seven. The team leads the nation in scoring offense (43.3) and ranks second nationally in total offense (537.5). With one game left to play, the 2010 Oregon Ducks have already set a new school record for scoring by putting up 592 points.

Bettors will likely back the Tigers due to their 7-1-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 0.5 to 3.0 points, while the Ducks are 3-7 ATS versus teams with a winning record.