BCS Numbers
By Brian Edwards
To give you an idea of how good Alabama looked in trouncing Florida 32-13 Saturday to win the SEC title, let’s revisit a conversation we had with Las Vegas Sports Consultants’ oddsmaker Mike Seba just three weeks ago. At that time, Seba gave us a tentative line of Texas to be favored by 2 ½ over the Crimson Tide in a potential BCS Championship Game matchup.
But on Sunday as the BCS bids were announced, LVSC had Alabama as the four-point ‘chalk’ against the Longhorns for their Jan. 7th showdown in Pasadena for the national title. By Monday afternoon, most books had the Tide at 4 ½ or five, while the total was still at 45 (the same as LVSC’s send-out number).
Nick Saban’s team dominated the Gators and he completely out-coached Urban Meyer in avenging last season’s painful 31-20 defeat to UF at the Ga. Dome. The Tide amassed 490 total yards compared to 335 yards of offense for Florida.
’Bama enjoyed a 26-13 advantage in first downs. The game was sealed on a 17-play, 88-yard drive that ate up most of the third quarter and left the Tide with a commanding lead. Mark Ingram ran for three touchdowns and Greg McElroy outplayed Tim Tebow.
Texas had a much tougher time punching its ticket to Pasadena, the same venue where it beat USC for all the marbles in 2005. The Longhorns were literally one second away from losing to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. It was nearly circa ’96 except with the roles reversed.
Remember, as we pointed out last week, Texas stunned Nebraska as a 20 ½-point underdog in ’96 to deny the Cornhuskers a shot at repeating as national champs. This time around, Nebraska nearly pulled the upset but Hunter Lawrence buried a 46-yard field goal on the game’s (second) final play to give Texas the win.
The other BCS pairings went like this – Florida vs. Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, Ga. Tech vs. Iowa in the Orange Bowl and Boise St. vs. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. We already knew that Ohio State and Oregon would be meeting in the Rose Bowl.
LVSC opened Florida as a 10 ½-point favorite with a total of 62 against the Bearcats. These schools will collide at the Superdome in New Orleans on New Year’s Day at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Fox. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Gators favored by 10. Per LVSC, the Bearcats were plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300 for Cincy to win outright).
Gamblers have to be concerned about the psyche of Florida and whether or not this team will mentally check out over the next few weeks. At least four UF juniors are expected to turn pro, and I could see this game resembling Alabama’s loss to Utah last year.
On the flip side, you have the Brian-Kelly-to-Notre-Dame factor that should become more clear in the coming days. On Monday, Kelly told his team he would be meeting with Notre Dame officials sometime this week.
LVSC opened Oregon as a two-point favorite over Ohio St. with a total of 50, but most books had the Ducks at 3 ½ by late Monday afternoon. These schools will square off in Pasadena at 5:00 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Day, with ABC providing television coverage.
LVSC had TCU as a seven-point ‘chalk’ against Boise St. on the send-out. However, most spots had the Horned Frogs at eight by late Monday afternoon. LVSC opened the total at 54.
Ga. Tech is going to the Orange Bowl for the first time since 1967. The Yellow Jackets garnered the invite by winning the ACC Championship Game by a 39-34 count over Clemson. They took the cash as one-point favorites and also hooked up backers of future wagers (per this space’s suggestion) to win the conference with a plus-750 return (risk $100 to win $750).
Paul Johnson’s team will square off against Iowa from out of the Big Ten. LVSC opened the Yellow Jackets as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 51. The Hawkeyes are plus-140 on the money line.
LVSC sent TCU out as a four-point ‘chalk,’ but the number was at seven Monday night. The total is 54 at most books. These schools met in the Poinsettia Bowl last year with the Horned Frogs capturing a 17-16 victory as 3 ½-point favorites. The Broncos missed a fourth-quarter field goal that would’ve given them the lead.