Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl News and Notes 12/21

St. Petersburg Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

A lot like the matchup pitting Brigham Young versus Texas-El Paso in the New Mexico Bowl, the 2010 St. Petersburg Bowl is deciding to re-join old rivals who used to dwell in the same house.

Yes, when the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles tackle the Louisville Cardinals inside Tropicana Field in what will be the third edition of this particular bowl game, the scent of familiarity will pervade a building that’s sponsored by an orange juice company. Yeah, you could say that a mild, sweet tang – ultimately satisfying – will fill the home of the Tampa Bay Rays baseball team.

In the “old days,” otherwise known as merely six years ago in this age of rapid conference realignment, Southern Miss and Louisville shared a spot in Conference USA. Back then, Jeff Bower coached the Eagles and Bobby Petrino guided the Cardinals. What stands out about Louisville’s first-year coach, Charlie Strong, is that he has been rumored to be a candidate for the Florida Gators’ recently-opened coaching job. Petrino – now at Arkansas – is also a serious candidate (and in the eyes of many, the number-one guy on Florida Athletic Director Jeremy Foley’s list). To add to the Florida-centric flavor of this Florida-based bowl game, it needs to be said that Southern Miss boss Larry Fedora served as offensive coordinator under former Gator head coach Ron Zook during that same 2004 season when USM and Louisville still lived together in C-USA.

As you can see, a lot of stories are sure to be swapped by Mr. Strong and Mr. Fedora during the week of pre-bowl functions.

The Golden Eagles wobbled at times in 2010, and they lost wildly high-scoring donnybrooks to UAB, East Carolina, and Tulsa, but their defense managed to stand up and be counted in a defeat of eventual C-USA champion Central Florida. USM became the only Conference USA school to beat UCF this season. Southern Miss also scored a meaningful non-conference victory against Kansas this past September. That Friday-night win on national television re-established a positive vibe for the Golden Eagles’ campaign. Quarterback Austin Davis accumulated just under 2,900 passing yards this season, en route to more than 7,100 yards in a distinguished career in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Davis will provide USM with a considerable amount of ammunition… and a very legitimate chance of outscoring a Louisville offense that is profoundly limited.

The Cardinals might have done nothing more than merely split their dozen regular-season games, but it has to be said that such a feat is a darn sight better than anything the UL program accomplished in each of its three years during the snake-bitten regime of former coach Steve Kragthorpe. When discussing Louisville football, one thing to also keep in mind is that the Cards had to play (at least) three different quarterbacks this season due to injuries. Strong, a defense-first coach, had to adjust and work with his offensive braintrust to find some semblance of a scoring punch this season, and he had to trust his offensive coaches all the while. What helped was the running of tailback Bilal Powell, who gained over 1,300 yards this season. Louisville will hope to lean on USM and play old-fashioned north-south football between the tackles.

When an account of this game is ultimately taken, you can bet that the performance of Louisville’s passing game and the effort put forth by Southern Miss’s defense will ultimately tell the tale.

STAT PACK

Southern Mississippi:

Passing Yards Per Game: 254.8 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 31)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 203.4 (Ranking: 21)

Points Per Game: 37.6 (Ranking: 15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 29.4 (Ranking: 81)

Louisville:

Passing: 195.3 ypg (Ranking: 78)

Rushing: 180.5 ypg (Ranking: 30)

Scoring: 26.0 ppg (Ranking: 71)

Scoring Defense: 18.7 ppg (Ranking: 15)

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
By Judd Hall

The college bowl season is officially in gear with three games in the books. Now gamblers can fix their attention to the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field, where Louisville (6-6 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) will face off with its old league rival, the Golden Eagles.

If you’re doing a double take after seeing the Cardinals making a bowl game, don’t feel bad. I had this team finishing dead last in the Big East this year. It was pretty reasonable thinking after a 15-22 three-year run under Steve Kragthorpe.

We have to give Charlie Strong all the credit for turning around the attitude in his first year running a FBS program. His was not an easy job to do considering that this was an offense that scored a Big East low 18.1 points per game last season. But the Cards are middle of the pack in 2010, averaging 26.0 PPG.

Louisville hasn’t improved those numbers with its passing game, seeing as they gain just 195.3 yards per game through the air. That was to be expected since they didn’t have a lot of experience at the wide receiver position. Cameron Graham is the top target, catching 37 passes this year for 439 yards and four touchdowns. And senior quarterback Justin Burke will be making just his seventh straight start of the year, despite issues with back spasms.

The ground game is where the Cards have been able to succeed this season. And that is owed all to Bilal Powell. The senior rusher from Lakeland, Florida was quiet in his first three years at Louisville with 933 rushing yards and eight scores. That all changed the year for Powell comes in as the 10th-best rusher in the nation with 1,259 yards on the ground with 10 touchdowns.

Louisville’s offense can’t get all of the credit for the turnaround as Strong has put together a quality defensive unit that returned just six starters from last season. This is a group that surrendered just 18.7 PPG, which ranks them 15th amongst all Football Bowl Subdivision programs.

The Cardinals’ defense will arguably have their toughest test of the year on Tuesday night when they take on a game Southern Mississippi (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) squad.

Larry Fedora has kept the Golden Eagles going as one of the nation’s most consistent teams, recording their 17th straight winning season and ninth consecutive bowl appearance. While they are back bowling, it could have been a championship season. This is a team that lost three games in Conference USA play by a combined total of eight points.

Despite the losses, Southern Miss knows how to move the ball. Fedora’s crew is 15th in the country with 458.2 total YPG on offense, 203.4 (21st in FBS) of that coming on the ground. Kendrick Hardy has been the main cog in pounding the ball on the ground with 839 rushing yards and seven scores. And you can bet Hardy will be ready to take on a Louisville rush defense that is currently allowing 142.2 rushing YPG.

Someone else who’ll be happy to see that run defense is Golden Eagles’ QB Austin Davis. All Davis has done over the last three weeks of the regular season was throwing for eight passing touchdowns, but also rushed for four more scores. That brings him up to 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. But he will have to be prepared for a Louisville defense that has sacked opposing quarterbacks 38 times this season, which 5th amongst FBS schools.

Statistically, Southern Mississippi has been tough against the run (113.3 YPG, 13th FBS), scoring defense (29.4 PPG, 81st) and sacking the QB (26, 47th). But they have allowed 41 points to the Cougars on Nov. 20 and 56 points to Tulsa on the road to close out the regular season. A good deal of those woes can be directly attributed to a nightclub shooting following a 31-21 win at UCF that paralyzed linebacker Martez Smith, left LB Tim Green unable to speak and also forced defensive end Dedrick Jones to miss the rest of the season from his wound.

The majority of betting shops have posted the Cardinals as three-point favorites for this game with a total of 57. Gamblers can take the Golden Eagles for the outright victory at a return of plus-130 (risk $100 to win $130).

Neither of these teams were impressive against teams that went bowling this season: Louisville is 2-4 SU and ATS, while Southern Miss is 1-3 SU and ATS in this spot.

The Cardinals aren’t much of a friend to bettors looking for them to cover the number as they’re 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in bowl games since 2000. The Golden Eagles are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in bowls in that same time frame.

These two teams met up last season with Louisville winning a 25-23 thriller as a 2 ½-point home pup. Of course, these two teams were C-USA rivals from 1995 to 2004. Southern Miss was 5-3 SU in that stretch. The Cardinals, however, were the team that cashed in with a 5-3 ATS mark.

The Cards have enjoyed facing Conference USA foes over the last five seasons, evidenced by a 3-0 SU and ATS record. The Golden Eagles are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS against the Big East over the past five years.

vegasinsider.com

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Louisville Cardinals vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+2.5, 57)

The Skinny:

Southern Miss (8-4, 6-6 ATS) doesn’t always make its way into the national spotlight, but it certainly knows how to win. The 2010 campaign marked the 17th straight winning season for the Golden Eagles. They will be familiar with their opponent in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, with Louisville (6-6, 6-6 ATS) and Southern Miss splitting seven C-USA titles between 1996-2004 before the Cardinals left for the Big East.

Louisville has been in a free fall basically since Bobby Petrino did his dance with the NFL and left the program. Enter Charlie Strong this season and some low expectations. But Strong has proven to be the right man to resurrect the program, leading the Cardinals back to a .500 record that includes a 26-0 victory over BCS-bound Connecticut and a 40-13 pasting of Rutgers in the regular season finale that made them bowl eligible.

Strong, who was named co-Coach of the Year in the Big East, decided to lean on an under-appreciated group of seniors instead of starting a complete rebuild and was rewarded with a defense that played hard and kept the team in games and an experienced offense that pounds the ball behind the best offensive line in the Big East.

Point Spread:

Southern Miss +2.5. Over/Under 57. The spread opened at 3.5 in favor of Louisville but has since moved before the key number of 3 to 2.5 as of Monday afternoon. The total has dropped half a point from its opening of 57.5.

Southern Miss’ Edge:

A defense that carried the team early in the season slacked off over the back half, putting more pressure on the offense. Thankfully, quarterback Austin Davis was up to the task, thanks in part to a strong rushing attack that ranked 21st in the country while averaging 203.4 yards per game.

Southern Miss also ranked in the Top-20 nationally in turnover margin and rushing defense, which should make for a nice matchup with the Cardinals’ strength.

Louisville’s Edge:

Bilal Powell. A first-team all-Big East performer this season, Powell used his blend of size and speed to rush for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line certainly works to his advantage, with Powell possessing the speed and vision to hit the holes his line opens and the patience to wait for those holes to develop.

The Quarterbacks:

Southern Miss relies heavily on Austin Davis both in the passing game and on the ground. Davis finished the season strong, passing for eight scores and rushing for four more while throwing only one interception over the last four games. On the season, the junior passed for 2,898 yards and 18 scores while chipping in 10 rushing touchdowns.

Louisville has some questions going into the bowl at the most important position, as senior Adam Froman is getting over a thigh bruise and his backup, senior Justin Burke dealing with back spasms. No matter who starts, the goal is to get the ball to Powell or tight end Cameron Graham. Froman took the bulk of the snaps and averaged 204 yards per game through eight games while throwing 11 touchdowns.

NFL Prospects:

Southern Miss - DT Anthony Gray, DT John Henderson, S Justin Wilson. Louisville - TE Cameron Graham, RB Bilal Powell, CB Johnny Patrick

Bowl History:

Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are 9-11 all-time in bowl games and will be making their ninth straight bowl appearance. They most recently lost the 2009 New Orleans Bowl, 42-32, to Middle Tennessee. Louisville - The Cardinals are 6-7-1 all-time in bowl games but have not been invited to one since beating Wake Forest, 24-13, in the 2006 Orange Bowl - the school’s only trip to a BCS Bowl.

Etc.:

Louisville cornerback Darius Ashley was arrested and charged with DUI on December 2 and his status for the bowl game has yet to be determined.

Bowl Preview: Louisville Cardinals vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles
By Jeff Mattingly

Louisville needed a victory in its final regular season game to become bowl-eligible and it picked up a 40-13 win over Rutgers to accomplish the task. "I kept telling our guys you're a good football team. It's just a matter of believing it," head coach Charlie Strong stated. "Our guys just developed some confidence." The former defensive coordinator has wasted little time in turning around a program that went 12-1 as recently as the 2006 season. The Cardinals will be playing their 15th bowl game in school history and have posted a 6-7-1 all-time mark in the postseason. The Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg, Florida will be the team's third straight bowl appearance in the state of Florida, defeating Wake Forest in the 2007 Orange Bowl and dropping a contest to Virginia Tech in the 2006 Gator Bowl. Louisville is 7-6 ATS as a favorite the past three years.

The Cardinals have compiled a 87-77 mark against Conference USA opponents, including a 56-0 win over Memphis at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. Louisville is 9-18-1 all-time in this series, but has won four straight meetings, including a 25-23 comeback win on October 10, 2009 at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. The team is averaging 29.5 points per game during its four-game win streak against Southern Mississippi. The turnaround was spurred by the play of the defensive unit, improving from 65th to 12th nationally in surrendering 304.7 yards per game. The quarterback position is still up in the air, but Strong has plans of starting senior Justin Burke, but Adam Froman and Will Stein might also play.

Southern Miss is in familiar territory and will be playing in its ninth consecutive bowl game and 21st overall. The Golden Eagles have posted a 9-11 mark in bowl games and will be playing in the state of Florida for a bowl game for the first time since the 1981 season. In order to capture a victory against its Big East opponent in this contest, the team must improve a defense that allowed 29.4 points and allowed opponents to surpass 40 in five games. "I thought there were some games that we played very well defensively and there were some games that we did not," said coach Larry Fedora. Southern Miss will be playing indoors for the second time this season, defeating Tulan 46-30 at the Louisiana Superdome in November. The team is 6-6 ATS on the year.

The Golden Eagles are a difficult offense to prepare for due to being one of 13 programs nationally that are averaging 200 yards per game in both rushing and passing. Junior quarterback Austin Davis bounced back from a foot injury that limited him in 2009, throwing for 2,898 yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for 436 and 10 more scores. He has posted a 18-12 mark as a starter.

Bettors will likely back the Cardinals due to their 12-1 ATS mark versus Conference USA opponents, while the Golden Eagles are 20-17 ATS over the last three years.

Tips and Trends

Louisville Cardinals at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

CARDINALS: (-2.5, O/U 57) Head Coach Charlie Strong is already putting a stamp on this Louisville program, as they are going bowling for the 1st time since 2006. Not bad for Strong, considering this is his 1st season as Head Coach. The Cardinals finished the regular season with a 6-6 SU and ATS record. Louisville was 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS away from home this year. The Cardinals were 3-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. RB Bilal Powell is the heart of this offense, as he has rushed for 1,330 YDS this season. Powell ranks 10th in the nation in rushing YPG this year, averaging more than 110 YPG this year. Outside of their running game, this Louisville offense is pretty anemic. The Cardinals average 26 PPG this year, only 71st best in the nation. Louisville is strong defensively, as they are only allowing opponents to average 18.7 PPG, 15th in the country. The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games against Conference USA. Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Louisville is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in December. The Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.

Cardinals are 30-11 ATS last 41 non-conference games.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Key Injuries - QB Adam Froman (leg) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

GOLDEN EAGLES: Southern Mississippi has won 3 of their past 4 games, ultimately finishing the season 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS. The Golden Eagles played well away from home, going 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS this year. Southern Mississippi has revenge on their minds, as they lost 23-25 SU to Louisville last season. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year. Southern Mississippi overcame adversity during this regular season, including a shooting involving the team. The Golden Eagles averaged 37.6 PPG this year, 15th best in the nation. QB Austin Davis has thrown for nearly 2,900 YDS this year, including 28 TD's. Davis is one of the most unheralded QB's in the nation, as he can beat you with his arms or with his legs. Southern Miss. averages more than 200 YPG rushing, 21st best in the nation this year. The Golden Eagles have allowed their opponents to score more than 40 PTS in each of their past 2 games. The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Southern Mississippi is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog up to a field goal. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games overall. Southern Mississippi is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.

Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS last 4 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB