Belichick continues to cash
By Jim Feist
VegasInsider.com
The ATS Value of Football Coaches
One of the big NFL stories Sunday was the matchup between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick when the Patriots played at the Bills.
It was a key AFC East clash, as well as a meeting of rival teams and coaches. Rex was full of bluster all week, Belichick playing it cool focusing on details. Rex is about emotion, Big Bill is about focus. Rex is in your face, Bill is behind the scenes tinkering with details or teaching in the film room.
In the end, the Patriots won and covered in a 40-32 game that wasn’t even that close. After falling behind 7-0 early, the Patriots roared to a 37-13 lead before coasting. It came down to superior quarterback play, as Tyrod Taylor had three interceptions and Tom Brady had none, but coaching was a significant factor, too.
Football fans examine players, stats, matchups, home field breakdowns and bye weeks all during the season to find edges. Those are all important to examine carefully, of course, but don’t overlook the importance of some of the guys who don’t even don helmets and pads each weekend: Coaches!
Proper coaching in pro and college football is essential to winning, both straight up and many times against the number. Football coaches puts in more hours into molding their team’s success than coaches in other sports. Burnout can be high, but you can’t get the best out of your team without putting in the extra effort.
The preparation involved in getting a football team prepared each week is enormous. Game plans have to be scripted, new plays have to be taught to each player in practice, films of the previous week have to be reviewed for mistakes, films of the opposition have to be scrutinized, and a coach must know what buttons to press to motivate or punish players.
A football coach is literally a teacher, a boss, a strategist, a motivational speaker, a part-time psychologist, and even a dictator all rolled into one. That’s a lot of hats to wear and few coaches are good at all of those things.
Here are some remarkable numbers on three of the best pro football coaches over the last three decades:
Jimmy Johnson: 89-68 SU, 84-69-4 ATS
Bill Parcells: 183-138-1 SU, 169-142-3 ATS
Bill Belichick: 235-118 SU, 195-150-8 ATS
Belichick’s numbers are his entire career, while Johnson and Parcells are from multi-year stretches with their best teams. Those coaches not only won games, but covered with regularity. They were so good at organizing, teaching and motivating, able to maximize their team’s chances of success each week, as well as taking advantage of the opposition’s weaknesses, and motivating their players to a high level.
In fact, in Johnson’s last four years with the Cowboys, he went 48-24 (67%) against the spread, covering two out of every three games. The old saying is true: A good coach is a guy who can take his team and beat yours, then take your team and beat his.
Teams often take on the personality of their head coaches, too. Fiery Jack Del Rio and Mike Zimmer ask more of their players even in preseason. Jim Caldwell and Todd Bowles are more quiet and cerebral.
There are great situations each football season where a good head coach is matched up against a poor one.
Looking ahead to Belichick’s matchups this season with the Patriots, it appears he has notable advantages against some raw coaches.
Week 3 – vs. Jacksonville (Gus Bradley, 3rd Year)
Week 6 – at Indianapolis (Chuck Pagano, 4th Year)
Week 7 – vs. N.Y. Jets (Todd Bowles, Rookie)
Week 9 – vs. Washington (Jay Gruden, 2nd Year)
Week 13 – at Philadelphia (Chip Kelly, 3rd Year)
Week 14 – at Houston (Bill O’Brien, 2nd Year)
Week 16 – at N.Y. Jets (Todd Bowles, Rookie)
This is something to factor into your handicapping analysis. So pay careful attention to who’s roaming the sidelines. Bad coaches can offer good go-against spots, while good coaches rarely beat themselves.