Best and worst ATS in college football
By: Brian Graham
Since we are halfway through the college football season, we decided to break down ATS records of all the teams in the six BCS conferences. Below are the results:
Best ATS Records (3+ games above .500)
5-1 ATS: North Carolina, Oregon State, Oklahoma State
4-1 ATS: Iowa, West Virginia
5-2 ATS: Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
NORTH CAROLINA is just not getting the respect it deserves. Since losing its first two games straight up against LSU and Georgia Tech, oddsmakers have made the Tar Heels a favorite every time, but only by an average of 6.4 PPG. UNC has responded with a 17.0 PPG margin in winning four straight (SU & ATS). This week, UNC is getting 6.5 points at Miami, which bodes well for the Heels considering they are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 ACC games as an underdog.
OREGON STATE has been a team we have loved all year, and the Beavers have given us a 5-1 ATS record in return for our love. OSU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year despite playing against some heavyweights (TCU, at Boise State, at Arizona, at Washington). Since 2006, the Beavers are 15-2 ATS in the month of October. Oregon State has a bye this week and then hosts Cal on Oct. 30.
OKLAHOMA STATE has also been a StatFox favorite, with a 5-1 ATS record this year and a gaudy 12-4-1 ATS record in October over the past five seasons. OSU has been favored five times this year by an average of 12.7 PPG. The Cowboys went 4-1 ATS in those contests, outscoring opponents by an average of 24 PPG (53-29). Oklahoma State is a 6-point home underdog to Nebraska this week, which isn’t a role OSU is comfortable with. Before beating Texas Tech as a 3-point dog last week, OSU had dropped 10 straight ATS as an underdog.
VIRGINIA TECH has come a long way since its loss to James Madison in Week 2. Since that dreadful loss, VT carries the longest ATS winning streak (five) of any BCS team. The Hokies have won each of these games as a favorite rather easily, outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 21.4 PPG (206-99), which is well above the 14.2-point average spread. This week, Virginia Tech is a 26.5-point favorite over Duke despite the past two games in the series being close games and Duke ATS wins, with scores of 34-26 and 14-3.
Worst ATS Records (3+ games below .500)
1-5 ATS: Rutgers
1-4 ATS: Boston College, Penn State, South Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
2-5 ATS: Wisconsin
RUTGERS is 4-2 SU, but has only one ATS win this year, a 3-point home win over Connecticut when the Scarlet Knights were a 5-point home underdog. Rutgers is 0-4 ATS as a favorite, winning these games by an average of 9.0 PPG despite being favored by 19.0 PPG. The Knights are a 13.5-point underdog at Pittsburgh this week, but the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.
TEXAS A&M has the longest current ATS losing streak (four) of any BCS team but is somehow favored by 13.5 points at Kansas this week. Although the road team in the A&M-Kansas series is on a five-game ATS win streak, the Aggies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games outside of College Station.
WISCONSIN is 6-1 SU but has already lost five times ATS this year. This week, the Badgers travel to Iowa where they are a 5.5-point underdog. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) in its past six road games and is also 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) in its past eight games against the Hawkeyes.
For those of you who like playing on (or against) streaks, here are the longest current ATS winning streaks and losing streaks:
ATS Current Winning Streaks
5 Virginia Tech
4 Michigan State
4 North Carolina
4 Oklahoma State
4 Oregon State
4 West Virginia
ATS Current Losing Streaks
4 Texas A&M
3 Arizona
3 Florida
3 Michigan
3 Northwestern
3 Penn State
3 Virginia