Best and Worst NFL Bets in September
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Handicapping NFL games in September can be tricky, especially to those Jonesing for football while sweating out the dog days of summer.
Nonetheless, the London Olympics are in the books and the pig is in the air, meaning the sweltering days of summer will soon be history.
NFL IN SEPTEMBER
And speaking of history, let’s take a quick look at how teams in the NFL have fared during the opening month of September since 1990.
Listed below are the GOOD and BAD ATS (Against The Spread) SEPTEMBER performers. To qualify for this list teams must have beaten the spread .667 or more of the time, or lost to the spread .333 or less of the time, in their qualified role.
All results were extracted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine.
It’s time to let the games begin. Good luck as always.
SEPTEMBER GOOD MONTH PERFORMERS:
Dallas • 21-9 ATS as underdogs
The Cowboys are America’s team and almost always have enough talent to compete, if not win as often as their fans or oddsmakers think. Dallas is known for big plays and that is usually why they come thru when catching points early in the season.
Kansas City • 22-10 ATS vs. division opponents
The Chiefs have long been known to focus their attention on AFC West encounters, both home and away. The rivalries in this division are about as fierce and full of hate as any in football and Kansas City has always made it their business to keep it personal.
Keep an Eye On:
Denver • 13-7 ATS as underdogs
The Broncos used to enjoy a tremendous home field advantage, but have only had one winning regular season in Denver since 2006. They have been a much better wager when catching points.
SEPTEMBER BAD MONTH PERFORMERS:
Arizona • 10-21 ATS at home, 7-15 ATS when favored
The further Kurt Warner is removed from the Arizona franchise, the lower the Cardinals continue to sink. Even when the Redbirds were pretty good teams in recent years, they were slow out the gate, even at home.
Carolina • 7-14 ATS as favorites
John Fox was a success head coach in Charlotte for the most part, but he was more known for how his teams closed the year then how they began them. Another factor has been Carolina was always a far better road underdog than a favorite.
Cincinnati • 11-25 ATS at home, 10-20 ATS when favored
Despite going to the playoffs three times in the past seven seasons, Cincinnati fans have been apathetic towards ownership and last year was dead last in attendance in the NFL at just over 49,000. The days of the “The Jungle” are long gone and the Bengals home field edge could bankrupt football bettors.
Cleveland • 2-5 ATS as favorites
When your talent level is in the lower 20 percent of the league, winning games is a problem. Positioning teams like this as favorites can be very profitable, as long as you are betting the other side. Cleveland does not deserve to be giving points to anybody at this juncture.
St. Louis • 13-26 ATS away
This is our second Kurt Warner reference, but it’s apparent what his impact was on two franchises after he departed. The Rams have assembled mediocre players for years, which are not capable of taking their act on the road in the first quarter of the season.
Keep An Eye On:
Chicago • 11-20 ATS as favorites
Previously, the Bears would play more home games in September, as schedule-makers attempted to have fewer cold weather games in the northern part of the country. Da Bears were often not equipped to handle being favored.
Oakland • 11-20 ATS vs. division opponents
The days of “Commitment to Excellence” with the Raiders went out like Al Davis’ leisure suits. To this day, AFC West rivals still derive pleasure from kicking Oakland’s posterior.
Pittsburgh • 9-17 ATS as underdogs
Since the Chuck Noll days in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have been notorious slow starters, often peaking late in the season and taking a few early lumps.
St. Louis • 12-23 as favorites
Even when the Rams were the “Greatest Show on Turf” under Dick Vermeil, other than their Super Bowl season of 1999, the St. Louis defense permitted too many points, making them a crummy choice as a favorite.