Bet now or bet later for college football bowl games
By DAVID PAYNE
With bowl lines available so far in advance, in some cases nearly a month before kickoff, bettors are faced with a unique dilemma.
Should you jump on an early line before it moves against you? Or do you wait it out as a precaution to possible injuries or suspensions that pop up every bowl season?
“If a line is just plain wrong, then it's an advantage for a bettor to get it while it's still hot,” said Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle, “because we will not delay in slashing the line when the money starts flowing in.
“Then again, the bettor does leave him or herself open to a month's worth of anxiety, hoping that nobody gets hurt or banned before the game is played. Remember what happened to FSU last year.”
Florida State suspended 25 players involved in an academic scandal two weeks before last year’s Music City Bowl against Kentucky. The Wildcats opened as a small favorite, between one and three points. After the suspensions were announced, Kentucky ended up as a 7-point favorite. That couldn’t have been a good feeling for bettors who took the Seminoles as a small dog.
It’s an extreme example, but academic and disciplinary suspensions as well as injuries suffered during bowl practices happen every year. But that doesn’t make professional sports bettor Ben Burns change his approach.
During the regular season, Burns handicaps three or more weeks in advance, trying to predict lines for upcoming games.
“I make brief notes about each of the games and continue to add to them as game day draws closer,” Burns explained. “I am currently following the same process for each of the bowl games.”
So which bowl games will see the most line movement?
Burns polled his contacts at offshore books and found 10 teams that are receiving early, one-sided action.
“In no particular order, those teams are as follows: Central Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Rice, Boston College, Georgia, Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas and East Carolina,” said Burns. “If you liked any of the teams on this list, it may be wise to consider playing them early. Conversely, if you liked the opposite side, it may be best to wait until closer to game day, before pulling the trigger.”
Doyle said he’s also seeing early action on Texas and Alabama, as well as, Virginia Tech.
BetED.com sportsbook manager Randy Scott saw immediate action on Florida, Alabama and USC.
BOWL LINES ON THE MOVE
Motor City Bowl
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan
Open: CMU -5.5 Current: CMU -6.5
Texas Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Rice
Open: Rice -2 Current: Rice -2.5
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Open: B.C. -4 Current: B.C. -4.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Kentucky vs. East Carolina
Open: ECU -1 Current: ECU -2.5
Capital One Bowl
Michigan State vs. Georgia
Open: UGA – 5.5 Current: UGA -7
AT&T Cotton
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
Open: Texas Tech -7 Current: Texas Tech -6