Betting (and beating) preseason NFL lines

Betting (and beating) preseason NFL lines
By TED SEVRANSKY

Betting preseason NFL games is an entirely different animal compared to betting regular season games.

When first beginning to wager on these contests, it is very important to recognize these differences. By following these simple guidelines, you can make betting preseason NFL a profitable part of your wagering portfolio year after year.

Don’t confuse teams’ regular season capabilities with their preseason goals.

Indianapolis has won at least 12 games in each of the last five regular seasons, the single most consistent winning team in the NFL during that span. But the Colts are in the midst of a 2-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS run in August, with Tony Dungy using the preseason to develop his depth, not to improve their confidence level.

The Eagles, too, have been one of the NFL’s most successful regular season team to bet on over the last eight years, winning five division titles and going to the NFC Championship Game four times. Head coach Andy Reid hasn’t had a single winning preseason ATS during that span. Oakland has gone 6-3 SU and ATS in the preseason over the last two years, following those successful preseasons with 4-12 and 2-14 regular season records. I think you get my point!

Do your homework

You must find accurate local news sources. Find out what the player rotations are going to be – not just the starters. Oftentimes, in the first few games, the starters will not play after the first quarter. But will the second-stringers get the majority of the remaining playing time, or will it be the “scrubs” fighting for the last few roster spots playing the whole second half?

Pointspread outcomes are often decided in the fourth quarter; you must find out who will be in the game during this crucial time. Those with NFL experience are obviously on a higher level than those NFL Europe, Arena League and CFL veterans. Undrafted rookie free agents are at the bottom of the totem pole – these guys will often cost you the cover when they are getting significant playing time.

Know the quarterback rotations

A team I am betting on needs experience at the second and third string quarterback positions. I also like to bet against rookie QBs who will be seeing substantial second-half action playing against NFL level talent for the first time. Look no further than some preseason heroes last year. Kyle Orton, a former starter, rallied the Bears from a double digit deficit at Houston, while Bradlee Van Pelt, who had never played a regular season down in the NFL, couldn’t move the Texans offense.

It was a similar story with former starter Seneca Wallace, as he rallied the Seahawks for 17 unanswered fourth-quarter points, while rookie Charlie Whitehurst was unable to generate much offense for the Chargers in his first NFL appearance. Weaker quarterbacks just won’t put up the points you need with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, and they might cost you a touchdown with their bad reads leading to costly interceptions.

Know your coaches

Some coaches emphasize winning in the preseason, particularly in certain spots – Mike Shanahan of the Broncos, for example. Shanahan wants to set a tone for winning on the road right from the get-go in August. That’s why Denver has gone 9-3 ATS in their preseason road games over the last six years.

Mike Holmgren is the exact opposite, particularly at home, where he is currently on a 2-6 ATS run over the last four seasons. Holmgren doesn’t give a damn about winning the preseason games, being far more concerned with finding the right guy to fill the last roster spot. Seattle has only enjoyed one winning preseason against the spread in Holmgren’s previous nine seasons on the job. There are numerous other examples – coaching philosophy is a huge factor in August.

Look for coaches who desperately want a win in this game

Coaches coming off a bad season often want to set a tone of winning right from the start of August. New coaches also usually want to set a winning tone right out of the gate. Look no further than the Steelers’ domination of the Saints in the preseason opening Hall of Fame game last August as a classic example. Sean Payton of the Saints had no inclination to push his team hard in their preseason opener, while Mike Tomlin of the Steelers wanted to set a tone for winning right from Game 1 of the preseason.

Later in the preseason, coaches that are on the hot seat after losing a preseason game or two on the road have a strong tendency to pull out all the stops for a victory in front of the home crowd, to placate the fans.

Bet on first-time head coaches

New NFL coaches are in a unique situation in the preseason. These coaches generally take over losing teams, and losing teams are usually undervalued in August. These first-time coaches generally pay much more attention to winning and losing than veteran coaches do. The results don’t lie: first time NFL head coaches went 40-28 ATS, good for 61 percent winners over a five-year span between 2001-2005.

The 2006 preseason was something of an aberration with several first-time head coaches struggling, but even so, Gary Kubiak of the Texans and Brad Childress in Minnesota combined to go 6-1-1 ATS in August. Last year Bobby Petrino in Atlanta, Cam Cameron in Miami, Lane Kiffin in Oakland and Ken Whisenhunt in Arizona and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh – all first time NFL head coaches on teams coming off disappointing seasons – combined to go 12-7-1 against the spread in August.

Bet facts, not opinions

In the regular season, we bet on games in which we feel the linesmakers are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough credit. These are our opinions – opinions that are strong enough to risk our hard earned dollars.

In the preseason, we’re betting on information and information only. In most cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell us exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to “evaluate his depth” in any particular game is generally not a coach that you want to wager on.