Betting College Football with an Eye on Talent
By Doug Upstone
Several years ago, I started looking at a ways to evaluate college football teams before the season started. The goal was to achieve a method of understanding who the impact players on the football field were and at least presume they will follow thru once the season commences. As we know, everybody’s All-American in August can turn into conference honorable mention by December. The same is true with players relatively unknown, like the New York Giants top pick DE Jason Pierre Paul of South Florida, who burst onto the scene that had previously been dominated by teammate George Selvie.
How this works is I compile information from a wide variety of sources to determine who the best players are going to be in each conference, difference-makers if you will. The reason for using conferences is this is how teams make it to BCS games or bowl tie-ins. How well does this work? From the handicapping point of view it works on futures wagers, to build foundation as to how to perceive teams throughout the year. That is not to say this 100 percent accurate, because nothing is.
The basic point is talent wins games week after week. Granted, motivation and other factors play into betting on college football from week to week, nevertheless, ask any successful coach what is the lifeblood of the program and he’ll tell you it is players that have ability. Even if teams lack focus for a half versus inferior opponent, once they start playing up to capabilities, the more talented team can still win and cover spreads.
Undoubtedly, other aspects come into play like scheduling, when you play teams or injuries. Nonetheless, this is a great tool to blend with others for the upcoming season.
As an added bonus, Impact Football Solutions went thru every preseason publication and website that had preseason predictions and we list in parenthesis how each team is expected to finish based on ranking them all.
ACC – Atlantic
1)Boston College (2) -21 points
2)Florida State (1) -16.5 points
3)Clemson (3) -15 points
4)Maryland (6) – 9 points
5)N.C. State (4) -6 points
6)Wake Forest (5) -1 point
ACC-Coastal
1)North Carolina (3) -28 points
2)Miami-Fl. (2)-16.5 points
3)Virginia Tech (1)-11.5 points
4)Georgia Tech (4)-9 points
5)Virginia (6)- 6.5 points
6)Duke (5) -4 points
ACC Notes- Finding Boston College and North Carolina at the top of any ACC poll would be a shock to most football observers. The Eagles are strong in usual areas like offensive and defensive lines and if Mark Herzlich can make it all the way back from cancer; the Boston College bond on defense will be that much stronger. The Tar Heels on paper are the most complete defensive team in the country. The only weakness is if Butch Davis’ defenders become too satisfied with pressing clipping and tweets about how good they are or if the offense does nothing to help them and keeps them in negative field position continually. Florida State is expected to dominate their division, with the other teams having many holes to be plugged. The U at Miami is liked by many experts, however the offensive line is in flux after allowing 35 sacks and Game 2-5 (at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson and Florida State) might have the Hurricanes mentally and physically worn for a time. Virginia Tech should be very good offensively, but defense is rebuilding. New Virginia head coach Mike London has to fix offense that was 118th in the FBS last season.
Big East
1)Pittsburgh (1)-30 points
2)Cincinnati (4)-28.5 points
3)West Virginia (2) -27 points
4)Rutgers (5)-15.5 points
5)Connecticut (3)-15 points
6)South Florida (6)-11 points
7)Syracuse (7)-8 points
8)Louisville (8)-4.5 points
Big East Notes – After a nice run of being the surprise conference in college football, the Big East could take a step backward. Pittsburgh might have been the best team in the league last year, but couldn’t hold on to 31-10 lead at home to Cincinnati to give the Bearcats the Big East crown. The Panthers did suffer fairly heavy personnel losses on both sides of the ball, but still have the greatest amount of star power. Rival West Virginia would seem to pose the greatest challenge and has 16 starters back; however Coach Bill (smiley) Stewart is not a positive. Cincy has many parts back from title team, but can head man Butch Jones duplicate his predecessor’s success again? One club to watch is Connecticut. The defense wasn’t up to typical Huskies standards, however they should be improved. UConn finally has a legit offense and the five losses that were suffered last season were by 15 total points. South Florida was forced to go different direction after Jim Leavitt was fired. Skip Holtz takes over and will want to improve 7-13 (8-12 ATS) close to the season the past three years.
Mountain West
1)TCU (1)-38 points
2)Utah (2)-25.5 points
3)BYU (3)-16 points
4)Air Force (4) -14.5 points
5)Wyoming (5)-13 points
6)San Diego State (6)-11 points
7)New Mexico (9)-10 points
8)Colorado State (7)-7.5 points
9)UNLV (8) -6 points
Mountain West Notes –The upper part of this conference should hold little mystery. TCU is hands down the best squad in Mountain West, maybe being a little better offensively and dropping a notch on defense from last year. Utah will have the Horned Frogs at home in early November, yet at this time it does not appear they have the horses on defense to run with TCU. The BYU talent is definitely down this year, taking them out of true contender range. Air Force and Wyoming both have a chance to go bowling again and each could be good underdogs if they can stay healthy. San Diego State has a capacious number of starters back, nevertheless, until they prove they can at least compete with the MWC big boys, plus win and cover as favorites, honestly, difficult to take seriously. The Aztecs conceded 30 or more points last season and were 0-6 and 1-5 ATS. Why does everyone think UNLV is the sleeping giant of the conference? In a town that has been built on losers, the football Rebels fit right in.
C-USA -East
1) Central Florida (1) -22.5 points
2) Southern Miss (2) – 22 points
3) Marshall (3) -14.5 points
4) UAB (5) – 10.5 points
5) East Carolina (4)-7.5 points
6) Memphis (6) -6 points
C-USA –West
1) Houston (1) -20.5 points
2) Rice (5) -13 points
3) UTEP (4) -11 points
4) Tulsa (3) – 10 points
5) SMU (2) -6.5 points
6) Tulane (6) -1 point
C-USA Notes – This league is presumed to have one constant and drastic change at the same time. Houston is the overwhelming favorite to win another West division title, but it might not as simple as it looks. Rice, Tulsa and SMU (1-11 to 8-5 was biggest turnaround in FBS) are all believed to be vastly improved, providing more competition than meets the eye. Each has the feel of being able to cover the backdoor or have front door covers on unsuspecting opponents. The East is a different matter. East Carolina lost 30 letterman (most of the 120 FBS teams) and will need brick and mortar to rebuild. That swings open the door for Central Florida and Southern Mississippi to charge thru. The Knights bring back 15 starters from 2009 and are slight favorites over the Golden Eagles. Brett Favre’s alma mater might actually have more naturally gifted players than UCF; nonetheless the offense has to sort out matters before being the anointed team. UAB coach Neil Callaway must really like his handpicked coaching staff. With 11-25 (16-17-1 ATS) record after three years, every assistant for the Blazers starts their fourth year. Hmm.
Big 12 –North
1) Missouri (2)-19.5 points
2) Nebraska (1) -18 points
3) Colorado (4) -10.5 points
4) Kansas State (6) - 6.5 points
5) Kansas (3) -5 points
6) Iowa State (5) – 2.5 points
Big 12 –South
1) Oklahoma (1) -27 points
2) Texas (2) -24.5 points
3) Texas A&M (3) -17.5 points
4) Texas Tech (4) -8.5 points
5) Oklahoma State (5) -6.5 points
6) Baylor (6) -2 points
Big 12 Notes – Oklahoma and Nebraska are expected to meet for the Big 12 title, having the most talent up and down their rosters. Neither is a sure thing as both Missouri (five straight winning seasons, longest since 1978-82) and Texas have playmakers that could alter the outcome of the league. Texas A&M, at least offensively can overtake Texas Tech as the third best team in the South. With nine starters back for coach Mike Sherman, he’s counting on big improvement from the Big 12’s worst defense a year ago. Despite large sums of money spent by T. Boone Pickens to upgrade the facilities to make Oklahoma State a better destination for a high school recruit, coach Mike Gundy lost a ton of starters (only eight return, 4-O and 4-D) and the replacements are not nearly as good, halting any progress made. The rest of the Big 12 looks like others competing for scraps after the big dogs have eaten.
Big Ten
1) Ohio State (1) -37.5 points
2) Wisconsin (3) -27 points
3) Iowa (2) -22 points
4) Penn State (4) -15 points
5) Michigan State (5) -14.5 points
6) Purdue (7) -10 points
7) Michigan (6) -6.5 points
8) Northwestern (8) -5.5 points
9) Illinois (10) - 3.5 points
10)Indiana (9) -2.5 points
11)Minnesota (11) -2 points
Big Ten Notes – The league should be called “The Big One and the little 10”, as Ohio State is absolutely superior to the rest of the conference. That doesn’t mean the rest of the teams won’t have an interesting season. Wisconsin could well return to 10-2 regular season with what coach Bret Bielema has on hand. Iowa will again be a factor with rugged defense and potentially improved offense. Penn State in recent years has matched the play of their quarterback and Kevin Newsome is expected first year starter. The rest of the conference looks like rush hour in downtown Chicago. A number of squads have possibilities to get ahead of the pack or they could be caught in traffic with the rest. Two coaches that need their teams to surpass expectations are Rich Rodriguez (Michigan permitted 30 or more points in six of eight Big Ten contests in 2009) and Ron Zook. If the preseason prognosticators are correct, both might add to the almost 10 percent national unemployment ranks. Minnesota is out to avoid last year’s conference trifecta in which they finished last in scoring, total offense and rushing offense.
SEC –East
1) Florida (1) -21 points
2) Georgia (2) -16 points
3) South Carolina (3) -9 points
4) Kentucky (5) -4.5 points
5) Tennessee (4) -3 points
6) Vanderbilt (6) -2.5 points
SEC –West
1) Alabama (1) -32.5 points
2) Arkansas (2) -13.5 points
3) LSU (4) -13 points
4) Auburn (3) -9.5 points
5) Mississippi (5) -7.5 points
6) Miss. State (6) – 7 points
SEC Notes- The biggest non-surprise since the end of last year’s regular season was Urban Meyer back officially as head coach. The Gator-monster he helped create even got the best of him, carrying the heavy burden of anticipation. Florida still has what it takes to at least win the SEC East, without all the hype. Over in Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban will have a strong offense, but has to replace nine starters on defense. The stop troops are there to continue another strong campaign, they just need seasoning. The rest of the West division is several notches below, with Arkansas having the most upside with QB Ryan Mallet leading high scoring offense. Georgia has the best chance to surpass Florida, but is still in need of defensive answers after permitting 34 or more points 10 times the last two years. The first seven years under coach Mark Richt, this occurred five times. Joker Phillips has big shoes to fill as coach, as Kentucky has won seven or more games four straight years, the last time that happened was 1909-1912.
Pac-10
1) Oregon (2) -23 points
2) USC (1) -22.5 points
3) Oregon State (3) -22 points
4) Washington (4) -18.5 points
5) Arizona (5) -16.5 points
6) California (7)-14.5 points
7) Stanford (6) -13 points
8) UCLA (8) -9 points
9) Arizona State (9)-7.5 points
10)Washington State (10)–zero points
Pac-10 Notes – In essence, this is the beginning of a new era for the Pac-10. New members will be joining the league in the not too distant future and they have aggressive new approach from commissioner Larry Scott. Things have also changed in football, with USC no longer guaranteed the top spot in the conference with the departure of Pete Carroll and the probation the university is faced with. There is still ample talent left on the Trojans campus, but not the automatic reload of the past several seasons. Oregon will try and return to Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions and would have been the odds on favorite except for former Ducks QB Jeremiah Masoli could not avoid problems with the law again. Will this be the year Oregon State finally breaks thru and becomes conference champion? With 60 returning lettermen, the Beavers are as experienced as any team in the country and only USC has more conference wins (27) than OSU (25) since the league went to nine-game format. The middle of the pack could go any which way, with Washington and coach Steve Sarkisian creating the most buzz. It’s time for UCLA to show real progress with Rick Neuheisel not living up to promises thus far.
MAC -East
1) Temple (1) -32.5 points
2) Kent State (3) -22 points
3) Ohio U. (2) -15.5 points
4) Buffalo (5) -10.5 points
5) Miami-O (7) -9 points
6) Akron (6) -8 points
7) Bowling Green (4) – 1.5 points
MAC –West
1) Cent. Michigan (4) -14 points
2) NIU (1) – 9.5 points
3) Toledo (3) -9 points
4) W. Michigan (2) -7.5 points
5) Ball State (5)-7.5 points
6) E. Michigan (6) -1.5 points
MAC Notes – With football history dating back to 1894, Temple’s years of failure got them expelled from the Big East in 2004 after just 14 years in the conference. This ushered in the (Al) Golden era in 2005 and the former Virginia defensive coordinator has turned the program completely around, as Temple enjoyed first winning season last year since 1990. Now the Owls are believed to be the best team in the MAC and are predicted to end Central Michigan’s mini-dynasty. However, only one of coach Golden’s 19 wins has come against a winning team. The Chippewas actually do have productive players returning to Mt. Pleasant, especially on defense, yet without Dan LeFevour and third new coach in five years, CMU should tumble. This sets the table for Northern Illinois or Western Michigan to break thru, with the Huskies thought to be the top choice. Kent State might be the best defensive squad in the MAC and could go bowling for the first time since 1972 if offense clicks.
WAC
1) Boise State (1) -45 points
2) Nevada (2) -22.5 points
3) Fresno State (3) -21 points
4) Louisiana Tech (4) -13 points
5) Utah State (7) -9 points
6) Idaho (5) -9 points
7) N. Mexico State (8) – 7.5 points
8) Hawaii (6)-6.5 points
9) San Jose St. (9) -6 points
WAC Notes – In horse racing terms it is known as walk-over. This is where the favorite is believed to be so dogmatic; the field literally has no chance. This is the case in the WAC, where the purest thoroughbred is the Broncos of Boise State. Chris Peterson is 49-4 and 30-19 ATS as the head coach, having a non-BCS team being given serious consideration for national championship. The battle for second place or historical upset, centers on Nevada and Fresno State. Both should be very competent offensively, trying to find ways to shore defensive holes. Louisiana Tech, Idaho and Utah State are attempting to reach the next level in the conference and have to fix weaknesses to leap forward. New Mexico State won three games last year, by a total of nine points, not exactly a team on the come.
Sun Belt
1) Mid. Tenn. State (1) -26.5 points
2) Troy (2) -20.5 points
3) North Texas (7) -20 points
4) Arkansas State (4) -17 points
5) Florida Atlantic (3) -16 points
6) Louisiana- Laf. (5) -14.5 points
7) UL-Monroe (6)-14 points
8) Florida Int. (8) -13 points
9) West. Kentucky (9) – 4.5 points
Sun Belt Notes – The Sun Belt could see a changing of the guard with Middle Tennessee State breaking Troy’s stranglehold on the conference in 2010. The Blue Raiders have 14 starters in the fold from last year New Orleans Bowl winner and most importantly, QB Dwight Dasher. Troy probably still has the best roster of athletes in the SBC; nevertheless, they have a great deal of inexperience. The biggest mystery team in the league is North Texas, who is markedly more talented than when coach Todd Dodge took over three years ago, however can this team do an about face after five years of 10-49? Other than Western Kentucky (20 consecutive losses), execution and lucky breaks will fill out the rest of the league standings.
Independents
1) Notre Dame -12 points
2) Navy -10 points
3) Army -2 points
Independent Notes – This area is more challenging and more subjective. What is done is compare roster of starters to closest leagues where they reside. Notre Dame matches up in the Big Ten and would be strictly run of the mill in that league. I placed Navy and Army in the Big East for point of comparison, though they maybe more than any other two teams in the country are more about maxing ability and effort.