NFL Preseason betting week 1: This is an NFL preseason betting guide which will explain what to look for in week 1 of preseason football. If the bettor likes betting totals, sides or anything in between, here are some key facts to measure up to your picks before wagering this preseason.
There are just 2 big factors in pre-season NFL betting. One are sides, and the other is totals. In past seasons it shows that underdogs and unders are the way to go, but it is always wise to use these factors when handicapping. Betting every dog or every under in week 1 could be a fast way to lose your bankroll.
The totals in week 1 pre-season have gone under the number in 28 of 49 decisions, with 2 pushes based on the closing line over the last 3 seasons. That is a 28-21-2 mark, which is profitable betting every game. However, year by year, it has fluctuated in results. For example last year the under came in just 8 times in 17 games including the Hall of Fame game. In 2007, there was a 9-7-1 mark, and in 2006 the best numbers showed for the under at 11-5-1.
What this means is, when handicapping games, keep this in mind. Knowing that unders are more likely gives you a better chance at picking out a wrongly issued total by odds-makers. With tons of baseball and WNBA games added in with pre-season this is the part of the year where over-looking and mistakes are easily made by odds-makers. Jump on the errors.
A look into faves or dogs: Dogs are 29-19-3 over the last 3 seasons in week 1 including the HOF game. Now a closer look shows that when dogs cover they win the game a high percentage of the time. Basically saying that if you like an underdog to cover the spread your best bet is to take them +120 or +130. The Bills are +130 in their game with Tennessee. I will have to come back and update how this fairs this season. In 2008, dogs went 11-4-2 including the HOF game. Of the 11 dog covers, 8 of the 11 won outright. In 2007, the dog won 8 of 17 games, while of the 8 dog covers, 7 won outright on the money-line. In 2006, dogs went 10-6-1 ATS while of the 10 wins, 8 of them won outright.
Of the 29 dogs who covered of the 48 decisions, 23 of those 29 dogs won outright. That is a lot of hard earned money, earning even more on underdogs in the first week of preseason. So while handicapping games, keep those two steps in mind, dogs and unders, and snowball your bankroll and get ready for the NFL regular season.
Below, I will list what I feel to be good wagers in the preseason weeks 1 thru 4.
Saturday 8/15
5* Atlanta +3
5* Houston +3
YOU have a betting guide?
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This isn't worth the paper it's printed on