Betting NFL 'unders' in 2010
By: Stephen Nove
There are many ramifications to Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger being suspended for at least the first four games of this upcoming season. One ramification, from a wagering standpoint, is going ‘under’ the NFL betting odds total on Pittsburgh’s early games.
The Steelers, Arizona, Carolina and New York Jets all could make good ‘under’ teams at least through the beginning of the NFL football season.
Pittsburgh’s defense still remains upper echelon, especially with the expected return to health of five-time Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu and defensive end Aaron Smith, a key to the run defense.
But without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are going to be more ground-oriented on offense. That means tailback Rashard Mendenhall should become the featured player on offense rather than the quarterback.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s choices at quarterback with Roethlisberger out are Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon, who lacks experience. Leftwich and Batch have proven to be more valuable as backups rather than starters.
Pittsburgh’s wide receiver firepower is down, too, without Santonio Holmes. He was dealt to the Jets.
Arizona also is going through a quarterback change that has caused coach Ken Whisenhunt to redesign his offense.
The Cardinals were heavy on the pass with Kurt Warner under center. Matt Leinart replaces the retired Warner and Leinart is a totally different type of quarterback. He doesn’t have a strong arm and isn’t the downfield passer Warner was.
Realizing this, Whisenhunt is committed to having the Cardinals run the ball more with Leinart using play-action and rollouts when it comes to passing. This is a contrast to Warner, who was your classical dropback passer.
This will be quite a change for the Cardinals since they ran the ball the fewest times in the NFL last season.
Arizona ranked 14th in scoring defense last year, but lost star linebacker Karlos Dansby and cornerback and defensive back Antrel Rolle. Whisenhunt is hoping newly acquired safety Kerry Rhodes can replace Rolle and former Steelers outside linebackers Joey Porter and Clark Haggans can bolster his team’s pass rush.
Carolina has many ingredients to be a strong ‘under’ team. The Panthers are coached by John Fox, a conservative, run-oriented play-for-field-position type of thinker.
The Panthers went ‘under’ in six of their last seven games in 2009. Their four quarterbacks have a combined eight NFL starts. This should mean the Panthers’ run-heavy offense should feature even more of a ground attack with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Carolina is hoping Steve Smith, their one dangerous wide receiver, will be ready for the start of the season. Smith broke his arm in June. The Panthers finished in the top 10 in total defense and scoring defense last year.
Look for the Jets to be a good ‘under’ team, too. A good ‘under’ team plays great defense and runs the ball a lot. The Jets ranked first in total defense and scoring defense last year and also were No. 1 in running the ball.
Shonn Greene is expected to be New York’s featured back. He’s not flashy, being a between-the-tackles type of runner. The Jets upgraded their receiving corps, but still figure to be conservative in the passing game with second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez.
The Jets did pick up playmaking wide receiver Santonio Holmes, but he’s suspended for the first four games.
Nose tackle Kris Jenkins, one of the league’s best run-stoppers, is back. He suffered a knee injury in Week 6 and was lost for the season.
The Jets went ‘under’ five straight weeks last year during the crucial Weeks 10-14. The Jets’ final two regular-season games went ‘over,’ but their opponents – Indianapolis and Cincinnati – didn’t play their regulars in order to rest up for the postseason allowing the Jets to put up a combined 66 points in those two games.