Betting on Intangibles
By Chris David
It’s often been said that two things you can’t handicap in football are turnovers and penalties. They happen often and usually help or hurt one team or another during the course of a game. How a club responds or reacts could be the difference of victory or defeat. This pair of terms and other factors that are impossible to measure are called intangibles. While they may or may not hurt your wager in Super Bowl XLIV, let’s take a closer look at some that could sway your decision.
Turnovers
“The team that wins the turnover battle is more than likely going to win the game.” We know it’s a cliché that’s often used in pro football but you can never argue against it. Out of the 32 NFL teams, 17 had a turnover margin of plus-one or higher during the regular season while 16 were minus-one or less. Cincinnati finished at a stalemate and it was one of 12 teams to reach the playoffs. Ten of the other 11 teams had positive numbers, while Arizona surprisingly made the postseason with a minus-7 mark.
New Orleans finished the season with a plus-11 (40-29) rating and it improved on that number in the playoffs with a plus-six performance. The Saints notched 29 interceptions on the year, which was one behind league-leading Green Bay (30). Of the 46 forced turnovers, New Orleans was able to score eight defensive touchdowns, which was easily the best mark in the league. Indianapolis wasn’t spectacular in this category but it still managed to post a ranking of plus-five (31-26) in its 18 encounters.
Here are a couple props listed at Sportsbook.com that focus directly on turnovers.
Total Interceptions Thrown by Both Teams:
Over 2.5 (+170) Under 2.5 (-220)
Total Fumbles Lost by Both Teams:
Over 1.5 (+115) Under 1.5 (-145)
Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown?
Yes +145 No -185
First Turnover of the Game will be what?
Interception -170 Fumble +135
Penalties
Does anybody recall the safety in Super Bowl XLIII? Considering no defensive player was given the credit for the two points, it’s easy to forget. With Pittsburgh leading Arizona 20-14, the Steelers offensive lineman Justin Hartwig was called for a holding penalty in the endzone, which gave Arizona two points and a big spark as well. It’s hard to tell if one particular flag will make a big impact this Sunday but here are some numbers to digest for both clubs.
Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense were only called for 74 penalties in the regular season, which was the second-best mark. And the attack was just flagged five times in their two playoffs games as well. New Orleans was a tad more careless in the regular season, getting called for 89 offensive penalties. Unfortunately, the trend got worse in the Saints’ two playoffs battles as the team was penalized 15 times. Defensively, Indianapolis (92, 889 yards) and New Orleans (82, 717) were both in the same ballpark.
The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have taken the above numbers into serious consideration, just based on the below prop.
Team with the Most Penalty Yards:
Saints -200 Colts +160
Competition and Adversity
It’s been a while and it doesn’t happen often, but the Super Bowl has the top two seeds squaring off in the finale. Indianapolis and New Orleans didn’t meet in the regular season yet the pair definitely earned their way South Florida.
The Colts played in arguably the toughest division in football, when you’re looking at wins and losses. And Indianapolis matched up against the AFC East, arguably one of the better groups too. For games against the NFC West is nothing to brag about, but a road win at Arizona (31-10) says a lot. The NFC South wasn’t the best division in the NFL but the Saints did play against the NFC East (3-1) and the AFC East (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this season.
The Saints and Colts have both faced their fair share of adversity over the season and both responded as well. New Orleans showed a lot of poise in comeback victories against the Dolphins, Panthers and Redskins, plus the 31-28 overtime win against Minnesota in the NFC Championship was solid as well. Indianapolis has been in five meaningful games this year where it trailed or was tied at halftime. All five times the Colts came back to win, which included their AFC title game win over the N.Y. Jets.
Experience
As you know already, the Colts made a trip to Super Bowl XLI and wound up defeating Chicago 29-21 in the finale. A large group of that team will be making a return trip and that should help an already experienced group. Playing in the same venue is an added bonus for Indy, who will be going through the same routine, practice facility and hotel arrangements.
For New Orleans, it’s a completely different story. Not only is the franchise making its first trip to the Super Bowl, the squad only has a handful of players that have played in the big game. Two of them are in the secondary, Darren Sharper and Randall Gay, and Sharper’s spotlight came more than 10 years ago during his tenure with Green Bay. The other players are a pair of fullbacks in Kyle Eckel and Heath Evans, who is on the IR.
Even though Jim Caldwell is in his first year as head coach of the Colts, he’s been with Indianapolis since 2002 and his title was the assistant head coach during that span. The Saints’ Sean Payton is no stranger to the big game either. He was the offensive coordinator with the N.Y. Giants in 2000 when they represented the NFC in Super Bowl XXXV.
Final Thoughts
The one adjective that best suits Indianapolis is consistent. You can also say that the Colts are the most methodical, prepared, disciplined and predictable too, which is a good thing. Some folks were upset that Indianapolis pulled up and decided to rest its players the last couple weeks and gave up on an opportunity of going 16-0. What people need to realize is that the franchise has a plan and it’s worked perfectly so far.
Edge: Indianapolis
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