Betting previews for the 2010 CFL season
By: StatFox
The Canadian Football League kicks off its 2010 regular season on Thursday, July 1st, and once again StatFox will be here to cover all the action for you, at least from a betting perspective. Montreal comes back as the defending champion after a dominant 2009 season in which it beat Saskatchewan in the Grey Cup game. The Alouettes are the league favorites again, but a few other teams have their sights set on bringing home the hardware in November as well. Let's go through each of the eight teams, some of the changes they've made in the offseason, and their outlooks for 2010.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
2009 Record: 9-11 SU, 10-10 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 9-10 - 4th in West Division - Lost in East Final
At home: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS - PPG Diff.: -7.9
On road: 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS - PPG Diff.: -2.8
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 24.2 (#6), Defense - 29.3 (#8), Margin - -5.1 (#6)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.7 (#6)
StatFox Power Rating: 21 (#6)
Front Office: GM - Wally Buono, HC - Wally Buono, OC - Jacques Chapdelaine, DC - Mike Benevides
Key Additions:: DL Keron Williams, RB Jamal Robertson, WR Derick Armstrong, CB Davis Sanchez
Key Deletions:: DL Ricky Foley, QB Buck Pierce, QB Zac Champion, RB Martell Mallett, RB Ian Smart, FB Rolly Lumbala, OL Jason Jimenez, OL Darren Heerspink, DL Nautyn McKay-Loescher, LB Javier Glatt, LB JoJuan Armour, DB Jerome Dennis, DB Barron Miles, DB LaVar Glover, KR Ryan Grice-Mullen
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Danny Watkins (OT Baylor ), 2 - Shawn Gore (WR Bishop's ), 3 - Joash Gesse (LB Montreal ), 3 - Hamid Mahmoudi (DB Montreal ), 4 - Nate Binder (WR Tusculum College ), 4 - Akeem Foster (WR St. Francis Xavier ), 5 - Cauchy Muamba (DB St. Francis Xavier ), 6 - Adam Baboulas (OL Saint Mary's ), 6 - Matthew Chapdelaine (WR Simon Fraser ),
2010 Outlook: At 8-10 last season British Columbia qualified for the playoffs and actually managed to win a game while there. The emergence of QB Casey Printers was a pleasant surprise and he’ll start the year as the #1 signal caller ahead of Jarious Jackson. Still, B.C. was just 6th in points scored and 8th in points allowed, and the playoff appearance and win may have masked deeper problems. Wally Buono is back and coach & GM in 2010 and he has added DL Keron Williams, a solid pass rusher who was among the best free agents available in February. They needed him after losing defensive end Ricky Foley, who was the CFL's Most Outstanding Canadian Player in '09, to the NFL. RB Jamal Robertson also comes over to fill the shoes of Martell Mallett. One interesting thing to note…For the first time in 28 years, the Lions will be playing outdoors at Empire Fields while the roof at BC Place Stadium is being refurbished. With the rainy weather that Vancouver is known for, will it be an advantage or a disadvantage?
CALGARY STAMPEDERS
2009 Record: 11-8 SU, 7-13 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 6-13 - 2nd in West Division - Lost in West Final
At home: 7-2-1 SU, 4-6 ATS - PPG Diff.: +8.9
On road: 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS - PPG Diff.: -2.5
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 27.8 (#3), Defense - 24.6 (#3), Margin - +3.2 (#2)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.4 (#2)
StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#4)
Front Office: GM - John Hufnagel, HC - John Hufnagel, OC - John Hufnagel, DC - Chris Jones
Key Additions:: WR P.K. Sam, OL Dan Comiskey, K Warren Kean, QB Cody Pickett
Key Deletions:: OC George Cortez, QB Barrick Nealy, WR Jeremaine Copeland, WR Brett Ralph, WR Markus Howell, FB Teyo Johnson, OL Dimitri Tsoumpas, OL Jesse Newman, OL Jeff Pilon, DL Jim Davis, LB Shannon James, LB Dwaine Carpenter, K Sandro DeAngelis
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Rob Maver (K Guelph ), 2 - Taurean Allen (CB Wilfrid Laurier ), 3 - John Bender (OL Nevada ), 3 - J'Michael Deane (OL Michigan State ), 5 - Karl McCartney (LB Saint Mary's ), 6 - Oama Culbreath (OL UBC ),
2010 Outlook: Calgary has undergone a lot of change since the 2009 team last played and lost in the West Final. Perhaps none of the losses is bigger than offensive coordinator George Cortez. From Doug Flutie to Dave Dickenson to Henry Burris, he has produced some of the best quarterbacks in Calgary. On the field, the offensive line alone has had to deal with the loss of star guard Dimitri Tsoumpas to the NFL and the retirements of fellow starters Jeff Pilon and Jesse Newman. Fortunately, Burris is still around and will again be the star for this franchise. The Stampeders may be hard pressed to match the 27.3 PPG they scored last year though. HC John Hufnagel expects his defense to be better though and to carry more of its end of the bargain this year. Few changes come on that side of the ball. Regarding the busy offseason, Hufnagel had this to say: "With professional football, if you're not a team that can adapt and accept and overcome change, then you're not a very good football team."
EDMONTON ESKIMOS
2009 Record: 9-10 SU, 7-12 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 9-10 - 3rd in West Division - Lost in West Semi-Final
At home: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS - PPG Diff.: +2.3
On road: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS - PPG Diff.: -5.7
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 25.8 (#4), Defense - 27.7 (#5), Margin - -1.9 (#5)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -1.5 (#5)
StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#2)
Front Office: GM - Danny Maciocia, HC - Richie Hall, OC - Kevin Strasser, DC - Richie Hall
Key Additions:: WR Kelly Campbell, WR Brad Smith, SB Andre Talbot, LB Javier Glatt, DB Chris Thompson, DB Lenny Walls, DB Lawrence Gordon
Key Deletions:: RB Jesse Lumsden, WR Maurice Mann, OL John Comiskey, DC Jim Daley, DT Eric Taylor, DT Jerome Haywood, LB Reggie Hunt, DB Byron Parker, DB Kelly Malveaux, S Scott Gordon, DB Lenny Williams, DB Anthony Malbrough
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Brian Bulcke (DT Stanford ), 2 - Saleem Borhot (S Saint Mary's ), 5 - Scott Ferguson (OL St. Cloud State ), 6 - Corbin Sharun (QB St. Francis Xavier ),
2010 Outlook: For head coach Richie Hall, last year was a success. Not a major success but a mild one. At least the Eskimos played a playoff game which is a much greater accomplishment than the two other rookie head coaches, Bart Andrus in Toronto and Mike Kelly in Winnipeg, both of whom lost their jobs. The second year should be better if for no other reason than continuity. Hall will be taking a more hands-on role as defensive coordinator as well as being in the role of head coach. The expectation is that the pass defense, a huge problem a year ago, should improve under Hall’s leadership. However, there have been a number of personnel changes as well, and it may take some time to realize that improvement. On offense, one year after leaving for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, speedy receiver Kelly Campbell is back and should form a dynamic duo with Fred Stamps, much to the delight of QB Ricky Ray. The unit ranked in the upper half in points scored last season.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
2009 Record: 9-10 SU, 13-6 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 8-11 - 2nd in East Division - Lost in East Semi-Final
At home: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS - PPG Diff.: +1.1
On road: 3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS - PPG Diff.: +0.3
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 25.1 (#5), Defense - 24.3 (#2), Margin - +0.8 (#4)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.3 (#4)
StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#4)
Front Office: GM - Bob O'Billovich, HC - Marcel Bellefeuille, OC - Mike Gibson, DC - Greg Marshall
Key Additions:: K Sandro DeAngelis, WR Maurice Mann, OL Jason Jimenez, DB Will Poole, DB Jason Shivers, DB Jerome Dennis
Key Deletions:: OL Dan Goodspeed, WR Prechae Rodriguez, RB Kenton Keith, RB Tre Smith, RB Terry Caulley, SB Corey Grant, DT Darrell Adams, LB Dennis Haley, DB Bo Smith, DB Chris Thompson, DB Lawrence Gordon, K Nick Setta
2010 Draft Picks: 3 - Samuel Fournier (RB Laval ), 3 - Eddie Steele (DT Manitoba ), 4 - Chris Rwabukamba (DB Duke ), 5 - Justin Palardy (K),
2010 Outlook: Hamilton was one of two teams ousted from the playoffs in the opening week last fall but all-in-all the season was a success considering how wayward the franchise had gone from 2005 to 2008. In fact, empty seats had become all too familiar at Ivor Wynne. Now, with the stadium’s days numbered and the team showing improvement, Hamilton fans may again be flocking in hopes of seeing a home playoff football game again this year. Realistically, this team could be primed and positioned to do some damage this season and a quality start would go a long way to making that happen. They figure to go with Kevin Glenn (Illionois State) as their starter at quarterback from the outset this season. Plus, with the addition of defensive backs Will Poole, Jason Shivers from Toronto and Jerome Dennis from B.C., it will be even tougher to score points on the Tiger-Cats this season after they finished second best in the league in that stat in 2009.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
2009 Record: 17-3 SU, 12-8 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 9-11 - 1st in East Division - Won Grey Cup Game
At home: 10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS - PPG Diff.: +20.1
On road: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS - PPG Diff.: +11.4
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 34.2 (#1), Defense - 18.5 (#1), Margin - +15.7 (#1)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +12.7 (#1)
StatFox Power Rating: 38 (#1)
Front Office: GM - Jim Popp, HC - Marc Trestman, OC - Scott Milanovich, DC - Tim Burke
Key Additions:: GM Jim Popp, HC Marc Trestman, QB Ricky Santos, DL Pat MacDonald
Key Deletions:: OL Bryan Chiu, KR Larry Taylor, DL Keron Williams, CB Davis Sanchez
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Kristian Matte (OG Concordia ), 2 - Chima Ihekwoaba (DE Wilfrid Laurier ), 2 - Curtis Dublanko (LB North Dakota ), 3 - Marc-Olivier Brouillette (QB Montreal ), 4 - Ryan Bomben (OL Guelph ), 5 - Brian Ridgeway (LB Simon Fraser ), 6 - Justin Conn (LB Bishop's ),
2010 Outlook: With rumours swirling about GM Jim Popp and head coach Marc Trestman getting interest from NFL teams, there was some fear in Montreal that they would not be back this season. The attention was well-deserved as Montreal was head-and-shoulder above any other club in the CFL last season. En route to the Grey Cup title, the Alouettes outscored opponents by 15.7 points per game, and they were easily the league’s best club in both points scored and allowed. But if they win the Grey Cup again in 2010, this could be the last of the Popp/Trestman duo in Montreal. There’s little reason to believe the Alouettes won’t be as good as last year with Anthony Calvillo back under center. Heck, even if the 38-year old league MVP gets hurt, they have Adrian McPherson (Florida State) waiting in the wings. However, there is one offensive concern, as Bryan Chiu, the anchor of the line having announced his retirement on the first day of training camp. His talents will be missed but his leadership will be missed more. Still, even after guiding what could be the best back-to-back football teams in the history of the franchise, Trestman is taking nothing for granted. "This isn't last year's team. That makes it impossible to repeat. It's a fairy tale when people talk about repeating. That doesn't exist. It may be the perception, but it's not reality.”
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
2009 Record: 11-8 SU, 12-7 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 10-10 - 1st in West Division - Lost in Grey Cup Game
At home: 7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS - PPG Diff.: +2.6
On road: 4-5-1 SU, 7-3 ATS - PPG Diff.: +1.3
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 28.4 (#2), Defense - 26.5 (#4), Margin - +1.9 (#3)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.0 (#3)
StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#2)
Front Office: GM - Brendan Taman, HC - Ken Miller, OC - Doug Berry, DC - Gary Etcheverry
Key Additions:: KR Dominique Dorsey, GM Brendan Taman, OC Doug Berry, QB Ryan Dinwiddie, QB Dalton Bell, WR Prechae Rodriguez, WR Obed Cetoute, OL Dan Goodspeed, OL Kelly Bates, LB Barrin Simpson
Key Deletions:: DE John Chick, DE Stevie Baggs, GM Eric Tillman, OC Paul LaPolice, QB Steven Jyles, WR Jason Armstead, WR Gerran Walker, OL Jonathan St. Pierre, DL Stevie Baggs, DL John Chick, LB Renauld (Rey) Williams, LB Aaron Wagner, DB Eddie Davis, K/P Jamie Boreham
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Shomari Williams (LB Queen's ), 2 - Jordan Sisco (WR Regina ), 5 - Patrick Neufeld (OL Saskatchewan ), 5 - Bruno LaPointe (DL Buffalo ),
2010 Outlook: As defending West Division titlists and Grey Cup runners-up, the Roughriders feel they have unfinished business to attend to in 2010. What’s best is that Saskatchewan has no QB controversy going into the season, music to head coach Ken Miller's ears. Darian Durant (N. Carolina) squashed all doubters last season and looks to continue to improve under the direction of new offensive coordinator Doug Berry. Durant will continue to throw to the 'Canadian Air Force' of receivers Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg, Chris Getzlaf, and Jason Clermont, who combined for 190 receptions and 2,537 yards last season. There is some concern on defense though after the team lost pass-rushing defensive ends John Chick and Stevie Baggs in the offseason without any replacements made from outside the organization. The loss cannot be underestimated with the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Jarious Jackson, Casey Printers playing in the division. The defense was ranked just 4th in points allowed last season, two spots worse than the offense, so that unit needed to improve for this team to reach championship level. The challenge for the Roughriders will be to mentally flip disappointment into determination after last year’s title loss.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
2009 Record: 3-15 SU, 6-11 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 6-12 - 4th in East Division - Missed the playoffs
At home: 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS - PPG Diff.: -8.3
On road: 2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS - PPG Diff.: -11
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 18.2 (#8), Defense - 27.9 (#6), Margin - -9.7 (#8)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8.2 (#8)
StatFox Power Rating: 17 (#8)
Front Office: GM - Adam Rita, HC - Jim Barker, OC - Jaime Elizondo, DC - Chip Garber
Key Additions:: Head Coach Jim Barker, OC Jaime Elizondo, QB Cleo Lemon, QB Ken Dorsey, QB Danny Brannagan, QB Dalton Bell, WR Jeremaine Copeland, WR Gerran Walker, OG Cedric Gagne-Marcoux, OL Jonathan St. Pierre, DC Chip Garber, DT Eric Taylor, CB Byron Parker, DB Dwaine Carpenter, P Jamie Boreham
Key Deletions:: RB Jamal Robertson, Head Coach Bart Andrus, QB Kerry Joseph, QB Cody Pickett, WR P.K. Sam, WR Andre Talbot, WR Andre Talbot, WR Brad Smith, WR Obed Cetoute, RB Dominique Dorsey, DL Walter Curry, DE Jonathan Brown, LB Zeke Moreno, DB Will Poole, DB Jason Shivers, K Justin Medlock
2010 Draft Picks: 1 - Joe Eppele (OT Washington St. ), 1 - Cory Greenwood (LB Concordia ), 2 - Grant Shaw (S Saskatchewan ), 3 - Spencer Watt (WR Simon Fraser ), 4 - Joel Reinders (OT Waterloo ), 4 - Steven Turner (WR Bishop's ), 5 - Michael Warner (OL Waterloo ), 6 - Nasser Jamal (OL Louisiana Lafayette ), 6 - Conor Elliot (LB Western Ontario ),
2010 Outlook: The Bart Andrus era is over and now it's up to Jim Barker to turn things around in short order. He had a solid draft so the future looks brighter than it did but how much can he actually do in 2010? Toronto is in a precarious scenario with no QB's having meaningful CFL game experience. Leading the pack for the Boatmen is Cleo Lemon (Ark. St), who had a sniff with the Dolphins in the NFL a few years back. Ken Dorsey is the back up. He also boasts NFL experience with San Francisco. With no CFL experience at quarterback and very little at receiver, the passing game could be in desperate need of a solid running game. Unfortunately, with leading rusher Jamal Robertson gone, that could be up in the air, too. The Argos and the CFL will need Lemon to be a quick learner and productive early because we all need the Boatman to be more competitive, as they were outscored by just shy of 10.0 points per game, easily worst in the CFL. If, and this is a big if, Toronto can develop a passing attack, they will be a surprise team. Even if not, it’s a stretch to think they could be as bad as they were a year ago.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
2009 Record: 7-11 SU, 9-9 ATS, OVER-UNDER: 9-9 - 3rd in East Division - Missed the playoffs
At home: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS - PPG Diff.: -7.4
On road: 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS - PPG Diff.: -5.9
Scoring Stats (PPG): Offense - 21.4 (#7), Defense - 28.1 (#7), Margin - -6.7 (#7)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -4.9 (#7)
StatFox Power Rating: 21 (#6)
Front Office: GM - Joe Mack, HC - Paul LaPolice, OC - Jamie Barresi, DC - Kavis Reed
Key Additions:: Head coach Paul LaPolice, GM Joe Mack, OC Jamie Barresi, QB Steven Jyles, QB Buck Pierce, WR Chris Davis, DC Kavis Reed, DB LaVar Glover
Key Deletions:: DB Jonathan Hefney, Head Coach Mike Kelly, QB Michael Bishop, QB Stefan FeFors, QB Ricky Santos, WR Dudley Guice, WR Titus Ryan, OL Kelly Bates, LB Derrick Doggett, DL Pat MacDonald, LB Barrin Simpson, DE Gavin Walls, DB Lenny Walls, DE Fred Perry, LB Siddeeq Shabazz, K Troy Westwood,
2010 Draft Picks: 2 - Cory Watson (WR Concordia ), 4 - Christopher Smith (LB Queen's ), 4 - Anthony Woodson (RB Calgary ), 6 - Christopher Greaves (DL Western Ontario ),
2010 Outlook: Two CFL teams missed the playoff cut a year ago, and not surprisingly, both have started over in the front office. In Winnipeg, Joe Mack takes over as General Manager and Paul LaPolice will now be Head Coach. After last year's nightmare, LaPolice has his work cut out for him but he's been a success everywhere he's been up to now. This season is the first step in a long road back to respectability. The Winnipeg QB race has two veteran guns Buck Pierce (New Mexico St.) and Steven Jyles (La @ Monroe) battling for the opportunity to lead the Bombers. Pierce has a decisive edge with experience in games played, wins, passes attempted, TD's thrown etc, but Jyles may prove to be the more explosive player. The bottom line is the Bombers are heading in the right direction under center. On defense, there was significant loss with the departure of DB Jonathan Hefney, as shutdown corners are hard to find. With an offense looking to reinvent itself, it would have been nice to have Hefney in the defensive backfield keeping the opposition off the field. The Blue Bombers go into this season with a new general manger, a new head coach and a quarterback that has been knocked out a few times. Under new head coach Paul LaPolice, this year could be the beginning of a solid foundation, and the locker room should be less contentious this season. It could be a long year so the ability to keep this team together will be important.