Betting Recap - Week 4
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 4 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 5-10
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+9.5, ML +400) at Patriots, 33-30
Bills (+8, ML +330) at Falcons, 23-17
Rams (+5.5, ML +210) at Cowboys, 35-30
Jets (+4, ML +175) vs. Jaguars, 23-20
The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-12.5) vs. Colts, 46-18
Packers (-7) vs. Bears, 35-14
Saints (-4) vs. Dolphins, 20-0
Bengals (-3.5) at Browns, 31-7
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Raiders, 16-10
Steelers (-3.5) at Ravens, 26-9
Paying The Bills
The Buffalo Bills picked up a road win against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons, 23-17. The Bills were aided by the early exits of WRs Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but it was their defense with another strong effort either way. Buffalo has allowed just 13.5 PPG over their first four games, and they're an impressive 4-0 ATS so far. In addition, total bettors have hit the 'under' in three of their four outings. They'll look to keep it rolling on the road in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ram It
The Los Angeles Rams posted an impressive 35-30 victory on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. The Rams have struggled defensively, yielding an average of 32.0 PPG over the past three outings, but they have still won each of their past two road outings. The 'over' is also 4-0 this season, but that streak will be put to the test when the Seattle Seahawks pay a visit to L.A. in Week 5. The Rams are also 3-1 ATS overall this season, including covers in each of their two road contests.
Total Recall
Sunday Night Football looked like it was going to be a defensive battle in the first quarter, but then the floodgates opened. Indianapolis-Seattle (41.5). The Colts surprised with a 15-10 lead at halftime, and then the Seahawks rolled to 22 points in the third quarter to push the total over after 45 minutes. It seems like old time, as the prime time games this week have each smashed the 'over'.
The lowest total on the board -- Jacksonville-N.Y. Jets (38.5) ended up needing overtime, tied 20-20 after regulation. More importantly, the game hit the 'over'. The two games with the second-lowest line (41.5), Indy-Seattle and Cincinnati-Cleveland split the over/under. Five teams ended up with 10 points or less this week, including a shutout in the New Orleans-Miami (52) battle in London.
The N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay (45.5) game looked to be in good shape for 'under' bettors initially. A torrential downpour was the scene at the beginning of the late-afternoon kick at Raymond James Stadium, but it didn't stop the Bucs from getting out to a 13-0 lead after 15 minutes. The scoring actually settled down in the second half, and was aided by the poor kicking of Nick Folk. The veteran kicker missed two field goals and an extra point earlier in the game, so naturally the outcome of the game came down to his foot. He banged home a 34-yard field goal to give the Bucs a 25-23 win, but it also changed the result of the total for most bettors from under to over.
The 'Over' is 7-6 through the first 13 primetime games of the 2017 season, with Monday's game between the Washington Redskins-Kansas City Chiefs still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Falcons WRs Julio Jones (hip) and Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) each checked out of the Week 4 game against the Bills early and they were unable to return.
Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) took a knee to the back in the second half of the game against the Raiders and the initial diagnosis after the outing was that the star quarterback was dealing with back spasms.
Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) was forced out of Sunday's lopsided loss against the Texans due to a hamstring injury. He'll underdog an MRI on Monday.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate injury against the Lions after a non-contact injury.
Looking Ahead
The surprising Rams will host the Seahawks, looking to stay hot against the number. Seattle opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite, which will make the Rams an attractive play if you believe in trends. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against the Rams, while going 3-7 ATS in the past 10 overall in this series. The underdog is also 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, with the home team cashing in seven of the past eight in this series. While the 'over' is 4-0 for LAR so far this season, the 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series.
The Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry in Dallas in the late-afternoon nationally televised game. The Packers have owned the series lately, at least against the number, going 5-2 ATS in the past meetings. However, Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to the Metroplex, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS in the past five in the series, while the 'over' has cashed in each of the past four battles.
The Vikings and Bears will do battle on Monday Night Football at Soldier Field. The Vikings haven't done very well on MNF in recent seasons, going 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday, while also struggling outdoors. They're just 1-5 ATS in their past six on a grass surface. The Bears have covered six of their past seven at home, while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven showings on MNF. The Vikings have cashed in just three of their past 14 trips to Chicago, while the home team is 21-8 ATS in the past 29 in the series. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, while going 8-3 in the past 11 overall in the series.