Betting the Combine
By Judd Hall
If there is one thing we can glean from the NFL is that there is no rest for any teams. Even the Saints began contemplating how they were going to repeat the Super Bowl title they just won the following day.
All 32 teams have dumped loads of money into scouting the top players in college football in order to make sure they don’t draft a Tim Couch or Vernon Gholston in late April. And just in case they still don’t know enough about these players, they’ll head to Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine.
For those of you that are bankrupt when it comes to your social life (or work in an office with a few televisions), you’ve no doubt watched the action unfold on the NFL Network. You don’t have to just sit there and watch guys do the bench press or vertical jump. You can place bets on the guys that are going to do the bench press and vertical jump.
Sportsbook.com, one of the industry’s largest off shore outlets, has produced 18 different prop bets you can make for this glorified meat market/practice.
One of the more intriguiging wagers you can make on is whether Florida’s Tim Tebow or the Longhorns’ Colt McCoy will have a better 40-yard dash. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence isn’t so sure about this one. “Unless I was at the Combine with a stop watch, or had Tebow or McCoy's number on my speed dial, it would be a guess at best.”
Lawrence makes a solid point, but we should be able to gain some information from past work. If you’re looking at just numbers alone, then Tebow has 910 yards and 14 scores on the ground; McCoy scored three touchdowns while picking up 348 rushing yards in 2009. Yet Texas’ signal caller is posted as a $1.25 favorite (risk $125 to win $100).
Both quarterbacks are the same height (6-foot-3), but Tebow (245) is heavier than McCoy (210). While UF’s gunslinger has shown he can run, it seems like McCoy is quite mobile and should win this race.
In a battle of top-shelf offensive linemen, Oklahoma’s Trent Williams and Idaho’s Mike Iupati will lift weights. Iupati uses every ounce of his 330-pounds to dominate any defenders he’s faced while with the Vandals. Williams has been a stalwart in a Sooner o-line that was giving up just 1.2 sacks per game this season.
Iupati is a $1.30 favorite for this prop, but I’m leaning towards the even-money option with Williams. OU’s lineman has proven himself to be one of the better run blockers at the combine and I’ll take the underdog in this spot.
If you don’t want to delve into the head-to-head matchups, then maybe you can look at playing the entire field for a total on one of the particular exercise. One such wager comes on the vertical jump, where the total is set at 42 ½-inches. Sportsbook.com is shading towards the ‘under’ coming through at minus-130, with the ‘over’ getting you even-money.
The tough part of this wager (and really all of the combine plays) is that the NFL does not keep official records for any of the results. But that hasn’t made any gambler shy away from making a bet, right?
While you think that the total should be a “gimme,” 2009’s unofficial results show that nothing could be further from the truth. Last year, only 12 players at the NFL Combine were able to hit at least 40-inches in the vertical jump. Out of those 12 attendees, three of them were able to hit above what is the posted number for this week’s festivities.
Your best option on this one is to go with the ‘over’ for a better return on investment. If you need any reinforcement for going high on the total, remember the talent that is available in this year’s draft. Wide receivers like Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant and Cincinnati’ Mardy Gilyard, along with a handful of solid players from the secondary mean the numbers shade to the ‘over.’
vegasinsider.com