Betting the NFL Draft Combine
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
The primary reason bookmakers turn a significant profit each and every year is because they are more sophisticated and better informed than the average sports gambler.
That statement is in no way meant to discourage you from strolling up to the window at any of Las Vegas’ vast array of betting shops with the hopes of padding your bankroll. But it’s an important sentiment to understand because it sheds some light on the behemoth in which you’re going up against.
But if my experiences bouncing around this industry have taught me anything, it’s that at least two opportunities exist every single year in which bettors can gain a significant edge over the books. And one of those opportunities is scheduled to take place this weekend.
The NFL Scouting Combine and NFL Draft are beatable because bettors have access to the exact same information at the exact same time as the sportsbooks, which is an anomaly that rarely - if ever - exists when it comes to any other event on the planet that permits wagering.
Granted, you can’t bet on the Combine or Draft in Nevada, but you can bet it online. And it’s there that you’ll come to understand just how beatable these two events truly are.
Don’t believe me? Then ask yourself this one simple question: When it comes to the Combine and Draft, why do offshore sportsbooks establish such low betting limits for which you can wager upon?
The answer is that the bookmakers at these shops know damn well that bettors can come across an integral piece of information just as fast as they can, which could prove devastating to their bottom line if the opportunity to place five-figure wagers actually existed.
This information certainly doesn’t guarantee success when it comes to wagering on the Combine or Draft, but it hopefully emphasizes the point that if you put in the research and keep up with the betting lines, you’ll have as good a chance as ever of establishing an edge over the sportsbooks.
And in a game in which picking winners at a 53 percent clip means you’re near turning a profit, any edge is an important edge.
2015 NFL Combine Props
Fastest 40-yard dash time
Line: 4.28 seconds
Odds: -115 both ways
Analysis: Of the thousands of participants who have run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis since 2006, only six have recorded a time of 4.28 seconds or faster.
Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Johnson set Lucas Oil Stadium on fire back in 2008 with his Combine-record 4.24, while Kent State running back Dri Archer (4.26 in 2014) and Texas wide receiver Marquise Goodwin (4.27 in 2013) are the only other participants to record a sub-4.28.
This year’s top candidates expected to challenge for fastest 40-yard dash time include TCU wide receiver Kolby Listenbee, Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller and Ohio State wide receiver Braxton Miller, but we’re predicting that none of those three clock in faster than 4.28 seconds.
Pick: OVER (-115)
Will a new record in the 40-yard dash be established?
Line: 4.24 seconds
Odds: YES +350, NO -500
Analysis: We honestly don’t expect any of you to lay -500 on “NO” in this situation, but as mentioned above, Chris Johnson (4.24 in 2008) is the only player to record a sub-4.27 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine since 2006 - a record that has virtually never been challenged in any of the last seven years. Don’t expect 2016 to be any different.
Pick: NO (-500)
Who will record the faster 40-yard dash time?
Line: Ezekiel Elliot vs. Derrick Henry
Odds: Elliot -205, Henry +165
Analysis: Call it a hunch, but we’re backing Henry in this spot because we feel that the former Alabama running back and 2015 Heisman Trophy winner is being severely undervalued.
At 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, Henry is currently viewed by the untrained eye as a between-the-tackles bruiser who lacks significant burst. But rest assured that this misevaluation will be put to bed for good once Henry takes the field in Indianapolis.
Regardless of how talented your offensive line appears, no running back averages 5.95 yards per carry in the SEC without some legitimate pop. This will be a tight one, but look for both guys to finish somewhere in the 4.44 to 4.48 range.
Pick: HENRY (+165)
Longest broad jump
Line: 11 feet, 4 inches
Odds: Over -160, Under +130
Analysis: Three different draft prospects cleared 11 feet, four inches in 2015 alone, so an Over result for this prop wouldn’t exactly be considered a novel concept.
For those of you interested in tailing our play, keep an eye on Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who is viewed by many as a realistic Olympic hopeful with a long jump of 26 feet, 1¾ inches already under his belt. In addition, don’t be surprised if Ramsey clears 43 inches in the vertical jump (Over: -125, Under: -105) when he takes the field in Indianapolis this weekend.
Pick: OVER (-160)
Who will record the faster 40-yard dash time?
Line: Jared Goff vs. Carson Wentz
Odds: Goff -150, Wentz +120
Analysis: There’s a good reason why NFL scouts are comparing Carson Wentz to Andrew Luck and Jared Goff to Matt Ryan. And one of the reasons for those popular comparisons has to do with mobility.
Granted, Wentz isn’t exactly Robert Griffin III, but he shouldn’t be posted as this big of an underdog against the rangy Goff, who rushed for -114 yards during his 37 starts at the University of California.
Remember, it’s not every year that a small school quarterback prospect finds himself projected as a Top-5 NFL Draft candidate. That type of jump requires the complete package, which includes the ability to make plays with his feet.
Pick: Wentz (+120)