Betting the NFL Preseason in 2009
By Jeff Hochman
You will hear people say Don't bet on NFL Preseason Football. Big Mistake! It's actually easier than capping the regular season. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. I have never had a losing NFL Preseason 17 years of Handicapping. You can see for yourself at The Sports Monitor of OK.
Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason offers the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money. Here are some things to consider when betting NFL Preseason football.
1) Depth
This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two- and three-deep at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first series. A perfect example of that is a team like the Dallas Cowboys, who have an outstanding No. 2 quarterback in Jon Kitna and have a large advantage over a club like Carolina, who has a solid #1 in Jake Delhomme but a shakey #2 in Josh McCown and #3 Hunter Cantwell.
Quarterbacks are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have a No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback that has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third- or fourth-string defense.
2) Experience
I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, in that category experience can be a detriment. Most Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless" and already have their "jobs" locked up.
However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, Philadelphia has been running Andy Reid's system for years. They're going to be much sharper than a team that has had a major overhaul. Take the Broncos for example. They are breaking in a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, and some new assistant coaches. Keying on clubs that have familiarity and continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems, is a big key for betting on the preseason.
3) Motivation
If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC's have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs.
Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the Fake Games. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan is.
4) Scheduling
The preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some people are a bit banged up then you can expect the teams to nurse the wounded in that second game. Also, one favorite angle for bettors is based on the belief that a team that's entering its second exhibition game against a team playing its first has a tremendous edge because they've gotten a lot of the rust and jitters out.