Bettors Finally Beat Books on NFL Season’s Third Sunday
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- Hooray for the bettors!
After getting buried by the sports books on the first two Sunday’s of the NFL season, the betting public dug in and gained some traction with their top selections in Week 3 – finally showing a collective profit – as six of their top eight selections covered the spread. It wasn’t a big enough win to recoup their losses from the previous two weeks, but it was a positive sign that at least the NFL and sports books can be beaten.
“It’s not a ‘big loser’ for us in terms of being enormous,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook executive director Jay Kornegay, “I mean, it’s not like I’m going to lose any sleep over it, but it was a pretty good jab in the gut.”
Last Sunday, bettors lost six of their seven key games. This Sunday, they won their first five big selections until losing momentum with losses in two of their key three late games.
“The Cowboys, Saints, Colts and Bengals secured our loss,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “The Raiders and Cardinals saved it from being a disaster.”
The Cardinals, 23-14 win as 3-point home underdogs to the 49ers saved just about every book in town from experiencing one those ’Black Sundays’ that happen every couple of years. Until that point, everything went the bettors’ way, such as the Cowboys erasing a 21-point deficit in St. Louis to cover, and the Ravens kicking a game-ending field goal to cover the 1.5-point spread in a 23-21 win. Then there was New Orleans getting a late touchdown to cover 10.5 points in a 20-9 home win over Minnesota.
The perfect storm was brewing through the 10 early games, and the books needed some relief.
“The Cardinals with their backup quarterback (Drew Stanton) actually saved our day,“ said Kornegay. “Yes, the outright win by the Cardinals saved us from having long payout lines at 4:30 p.m (PT). It was basically a two-teamer in the afternoon with the majority of our crowd having Seattle and San Francisco, and if they only had one, it was Seattle. But paired together, and both coming in, that would have been a big one. We had to have one of those sides lose for us”
At the beginning of the day, the Seahawks weren’t included as one of those public teams, but the liability on them grew throughout the day, as small parlay bettors laid the 5 points in the Super Bowl rematch. Seattle scored a touchdown in overtime
“The Seahawks win punched us pretty good,” said Kornegay. “(The public) loaded up on them when that second rush of bettors came for the 1 p.m. (PT) games. There were only three games to choose from, and that was the one most were unified with.”
The local sports books in neighborhoods off the Strip appear to have taken the biggest blow of the day because their clientele play the most parlays. And despite Arizona saving just about every book from having an epic losing day, the nightcap – where popular Carolina was a 3-point home favorite against the Steelers – put a few shops in an uneasy risk situation.
“Everyone seemed to have the Saints and Cowboys as their key two-teamer in the early games (and) that gained a lot of steam with some healthy parlay payouts tied to other games,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “After the 1 p.m. (PT) games were over, and I saw the situation (risk) we were in, I just wanted to cut the losses on the day and try to get to an equal four-way loss. I don’t want carry-over to Monday, so let’s just call it a day, cut our losses to a minimal amount and start over next week.”
The Steelers’ 37-19 win helped the books, and some shops, like MGM Resorts, were able to break even on the day because of the upset. They also fared very well against sharp bettors who tend to always be on the opposite side of public opinion.
Overall, favorites went a modest 8-6 against the spread, with the popular OVER occurring in only half the games. However, in the games the public jumped all-in with, the favorites went 6-2 ATS, which included the Colts (-7) winning 44-17 at Jacksonville and the Bengals (-6.5) beating Tennessee, 33-7, at home.
“It was a rough day, but not the type that is rough enough to give back what we won in either of the first two Sundays,” said Osborne, who did mention he was pleased bettors got some money back after the past two weeks.
It’s back to the drawing board for Week 4, but unlike this past week, bettors will have a little extra swagger in their step and a little more money in their pocket. Week 4 should see a high handle because of it despite six teams having byes.
Bettors make gains in Week 3
By Matty Simo
VegasInsider.com
After two winning weeks for Las Vegas sportsbooks to kick off the 2014 NFL season, football bettors were due to bounce back and beat them, which is exactly what happened in Week 3. However, things definitely could have been worse for the books, as a few key games kept it from being a brutal week.
Ironically, a division that struggled in the first two weeks bounced back in a big way, with the NFC East doing the most damage. The Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins and New York Giants all covered the spread in games with line moves in their favor. The Giants made bettors the most money following a four-point line swing and 30-17 win over the Houston Texans, opening as 2.5-point home underdogs at The Wynn sportsbook in Vegas and closing as 1.5-point favorites.
In addition, the Cowboys opened as 1-point road favorites against the St. Louis Rams and rallied back for a 34-31 victory after closing -2.5. And the Redskins stayed right with the Philadelphia Eagles until the very end, opening as 6.5-point road underdogs before closing +4 in a 37-34 loss to their division rivals.
“They haven’t been playing well except for the Eagles, so I guess everybody had to come around at some point, Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said about the NFC East. “For NFL or college football, it’s hard to even talk about it on a week-to-week basis because it’s from beginning to end, and you’re going to get this ebb and flow every week.
“We’re going to have some weeks that are going to be good, and we’re going to have some weeks that are going to be awful. But you have to look at it just over time.”
Avello described Sunday’s results as “below average” rather than “awful” thanks to the later games on the schedule that allowed his book to take some back from the earlier losses. One of those games was the Super Bowl XLVIII rematch between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, which was the most heavily bet game in Week 3, according to Avello. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks opened as 5-point home favorites against the Broncos and closed at -4 with most bettors backing Denver.
“Actually, I needed (the Seahawks) to score (a touchdown) in that game,” Avello said of the 26-20 Seattle victory. “So that game worked out. It wasn’t a big decision, but I needed them to cover the 4 in overtime.
“That’s a funny game because any team that’s down eight points in Seattle with 50 seconds to go and no timeouts is just not going to get down the field. It’s just not going to happen 99 out of 100 (times). There’s three guys, maybe four in football that can get it done possibly. Peyton Manning being one, (Tom) Brady being two, possibly a (Drew) Brees or Aaron Rodgers. I guess if I needed one guy to get it done, the guy that did it was the guy I’d pick to do it.”
The two prime time games that ended Week 3 also helped books overcome the big loss they took on the first one when the Atlanta Falcons hammered the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football as 6.5-point home favorites after opening at -5.5. The Carolina Panthers lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-19 as 3.5-point home favorites on Sunday Night Football after opening at -3 (-120).
The New York Jets helped The Wynn post one last victory when they lost to the Chicago Bears 27-19 on Monday Night Football. The Jets opened as 1-point home favorites and closed at -2 there compared to -1.5 at other books around town.
“A lot of late money came in on the Panthers,” Avello said before the Monday Night Football game. “I guess I could use the Bears a little bit, but the Bears are getting played too. There’s been times when I thought we were going to need a team for a bunch, and by the time the game goes off, I’ve needed the other side for a bunch.”