Bettors Strike Back
By Micah Roberts
After going over a month straight of getting pounded by the Sportsbooks, the bettors struck back with a big Week 14 in the NFL. The win was fueled by the favorites going 10-4 Sunday where only two underdogs won straight up. Of the two 'dogs that won, Miami and San Diego, both were short numbers that garnered public support and they didn‘t really help the books at all.
The only contest that the public truly lost on the day was the Saints winning by three as 10-point favorites against the Falcons. The other underdog that won but didn’t cover was the Patriots winning by 10 but not covering the spread (12.5). Late Panther money had come in pushing the spread down from 13.5.
The greatest sign of the knowing the public doing well was watching the rush to the local books by all the season contest players of Station Casinos Great Giveaway and Coast Resorts Pick the Pro’s. Hundreds of folks came rushing to the counters asking for results before the late games were even over stating that they had perfect cards in the no-points contests.
The old trend that was good for the first seven weeks of the season of picking on bad teams held true in Week 14. Betting against the Buccaneers, Raiders, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams was a winning proposition. The results went 5-0 with parlay payouts of 20/1 odds.
Fortunately for the books, the last few weeks of action that showed signs of life in those teams deterred an onslaught of action that had been seen earlier in the year.
Two teams that have done very well this season for the public, the Colts and Vikings, came through again with wins. The huge favorites of the Titans and Ravens also found lots of public support and won easily with each team putting up over 40 points in lopsided wins.
The Dallas Cowboys continued their disastrous December trend of losing. While sharp money had pushed the Cowboys from a 3-point favorite to 3.5 by kickoff, the public wasn’t buying it. Coming into the game the Chargers had won seven straight games and Phillip Rivers had gone 15-0 in December games as the Chargers starting quarterback.
The Chargers held on for a 20-17 win, but it really wasn’t even that close. The Cowboys scored a late touchdown giving the appearance of a close game, but the Chargers controlled the entire game.
Should San Diego and Rivers continue their December trend of dominance heading into the playoffs, they are going to be one tough team to face for any AFC team, including the 13-0 Colts.
When the Colts beat the Broncos 28-16 they secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and also set a record for winning 22 straight regular season games. With three games to go it’s likely the Colts will choose to rest starters in favor of going for an undefeated season, a move that has proven dangerous in the past by teams because they don’t have that same rhythm that got them the lofty record once real play begins for them.
The Saints are undefeated as well, but they have the Vikings nipping at their heels in a quest to win home field advantage. While the Colts don’t appear to care too much about the undefeated mark, the Saints are relishing their moment with lots of excited talk about running the table with no losses.
Should the Saints get home field in the playoffs, “Who dat gonna beat dem Saints?” The Superdome has already been a frenzied party for every regular season game. A couple of playoff games, while being undefeated, will take home field advantage to new heights -- Mardi Gras style. While the Vikings, Eagles, and Packers all look like solid contenders, the Saints at home look almost unbeatable.
This week the Saints opened as a seven-point favorite to the sliding Cowboys. After that, they get the Buccaneers at home before closing out the regular season at Carolina, two games where they’ll be sizable favorites. Quarterback Drew Brees may get a rest at some point, but don’t expect it to happen until those games are in control.