Bettors strike back on Sunday
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Thus far into the football betting season the Sportsbooks are winning consistently in college football - winning all four weeks of action. However, in pro football, it’s another story. So far after three weeks of action, the public has won two of the three weeks.
It’s easy to see why the books are winning in college. The public likes to bet the top teams - teams everyone identifies with, and those that are on TV. After four weeks, without using any spreads as an example, 10 top 10 teams have lost. Last season at this juncture only four schools in the top 10 had lost.
Last week alone, top ranked teams like Mississippi, California, Penn State, and Miami, Fl. all took a fall. One of the only Public games that got there was Stanford who opened up -7 and was bet to -9.5, but the rest of the Saturday was all gravy for the house. They didn’t have any extended risk late with parlays because most legs had been eliminated before any momentum could be gained.
For all the public’s issues and troubles with picking winners on Saturday’s, the complete opposite this season has happened on Sunday. Of the 15 games played Sunday, the public was on 12 of them which is never a good sign for the book. What’s even worse for the house is that the public underdog picked, Indianapolis, came through easily.
“We had a lot of risk with some of the favorites early on with the parlay cards and off the board parlays,” said South Point Director of Sports Bert Osborne.
If it weren’t for the Vikings not covering their -6.5 spread, it could have been a lot worse when dealing with all the favorite parlays played throughout the day.
“A lot of those big spreads came in on the early games,” said Osborne. “The Ravens, Patriots, Giants, and Packers covered and the public was also with the Jets.
“Even though the 49ers-Vikings decision turned out well for the book, we had a lot of risk on both sides of that game. There was a surprising amount of support for the (2-0) 49ers not making the overall decision on the Vikings not covering seem as good as it would appear.”
Though support came from the public on a lot of the favorites, the sharp players didn’t have many plays on Sunday after doing very well last week. A few of the moves of the day were sharp bets on the Titans getting +2 and +1.5 at the Jets, the 49ers taking +7, the Falcons getting +5.5 to +4.5, and laying 2.5 with the Cardinals. If there was any week the books could have used sharp action to offset the public, Sunday was it.
“The public did very well against the books on Sunday,” said Osborne. “When the Bears came in along with the Saints and Broncos in the late games, it didn’t set up a great position for the house going into the night game with the Colts and Monday’s game with the Cowboys.”
Despite the line moving on the Cardinals at home, the public kept betting the Colts who they had just seen beat the Dolphins last week on Monday night. The Cowboys were also an attractive team just because no one wants Jake DelHomme to have anything to do with their ticket and also the fact that the Cowboys lost their opener in their new stadium. The Cowboys couldn’t lose two in row at home, could they?
It’s never going to be a good day when favorites, especially the big favorites, all get there. When games that should help the house like the favored Redskins, Steelers, and Cardinals don’t, because the public has leans toward the dog, well, that is a troubled day for the house.
Don’t feel too much sympathy for the books though. The score may read 2-1 Public now, but I’d lay odds that by the end of the year the house will hold at least a 12-5 record.
This week is a perfect week for the house to get back what they lost Sunday because there are so many big games involving public teams. The Patriots are short favorites at home against the Ravens, the Saints less than a touchdown at home against the Jets, Dallas a road favorite at Denver, and the Packers getting four on the road visiting their old quarterback in Minnesota for the Monday night game.
Two of those favorites won't get there which will kill all three and four game parlays that will surely be linked to those games.
The menu is set, time to go to work. Good Luck with the hunt!