Beware of Let Downs - Week 12
By Judd Hall
The Wildcats and Nittany Lions both were nursing hangovers from Week 10 that helped bettors fade them for a profit last Saturday. There are some programs that had some big wins and another that suffered a tough defeat last weekend. Those teams are going to give us a chance at seeing green for this week.
No luck at all…
I know that he isn’t talking about it, but Charlie Weis has to see the writing on the wall in regards to his job. Notre Dame was expected to contend for a BCS berth. Now the Irish are looking more like they’ll be lucky to make it into the Gator Bowl after losing in Pittsburgh as six-point pups last weekend, 27-22. And they were lucky as hell to cover that spread.
This Saturday the Irish will show if they have any fight left in their system when they host Connecticut as six-point home favorites.
Forgive me if I sound pessimistic about the Golden Domers’ chances to win, let alone cover, but we’ve seen a bad habit arise with this club.
The Fighting Irish found themselves down 21-7 to Navy before they started to comeback on Nov. 7. And last Saturday we saw them down 27-9 before they began to five the end zone.
Notre Dame is not a guarantee to win at home as they’re 4-2 straight up, but just 2-4 against the spread this season. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Irish are 5-3 SU when listed as home faves after suffering back-to-back SU losses. As far as our purposes are concerned, the Domers are just 2-6 ATS.
Spartan downfall…
Michigan State found itself down 34-23 early in the fourth quarter on the road against the Boilermakers. Turns out that the Spartans had Purdue right where they wanted them, scoring two touchdowns in just over 90 second for a 40-37 win as three-point road favorites. The win gave them enough wins to become bowl eligible for the second year in a row.
As good as the Spartans feel right now, the sportsbooks aren’t buying into them as they’ve been listed as 3½-point home underdogs to Penn State in their Big Ten finale.
I know that this isn’t the same Penn State squad we saw last year, but they are plenty talented to beat this club. The Nittany Lions have had great luck over MSU recently by going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS since 2000. Plus, you have to take into consideration that the Spartans are 1-2 SU and ATS when listed as home pups after winning as home faves since 1997.
Fallen Cardinal…
Who out there thought Stanford would have dropped a double-nickel on the Trojans? If anyone says that they did is lying through their teeth right now. I certainly never expected the Cardinal to pull out a 55-21 bitch slapping of Southern California as 10 ½-point road underdogs. Toby Gerhart had his way against the Men of Troy, gaining 178 yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries. The Cardinal has been rolling offensively against the Pac-10’s best clubs as they’ve racked up 106 points against USC and Oregon.
The Cardinal will continue their tour for world domination this Saturday as eight-point home favorites over California.
The Golden Bears look like they’ll be without Jahvid Best for the rest of the season, but they did come away with a nice 24-16 win over Arizona as 2 ½-point home faves last week. One of the reasons was that they found a decent substitute in Shane Vereen. The sophomore runner picked up 159 rushing yards and a score on 30 carries. He should have more of the same luck this week against Stanford, who is giving up 138.5 rushing yards per game.
This series has been extremely one-sided in favor of the Bears as they’ve gone 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS since 2002. Also, the Cardinal have lost their last two games as home faves coming off of a win on the road as underdogs.
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