BIG 10 CONFERENCE 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW
Marc Lawrence
As we reported last year, the BIG 10 CONFERENCE has been an Ohio State love fest the last four seasons where the Buckeyes have gone 29-3 in conference play while capturing four straight titles.
That puts Ohio State in elite company, tying Michigan with four consecutive crowns. Better yet, OSU is the only team in its 112-year history to have stood alone atop the BIG 10 CONFERENCE four straight years.
A total of 26 all-BIG 10 players from last season return in 2009. In addition 10 of the 11 teams welcome back at least half of their starters, with Minnesota (18) and Indiana (17) leading the way. In addition, the top 6 QB's in efficiency are back in 2009.
The BIG 10 will battle 20 non-conference bowl teams this campaign, seven more than last season.
Here is my take on the BIG 10 for 2009. Returning starters are listed alongside each team's name (returning QB's designated with an *). Coming up next: the BIG 12 CONFERENCE. Enjoy...
BIG 10
ILLINOIS – *8 / 6
Team Theme – ZOOK, LINE AND STINKER
College football's best rags-to-riches team in 2007 was back on the streets panhandling last year when prosperity turned the Illini from winners back to losers. Don't feel too bad for Ron Zook's squad, though. They'll erase the stench of that stinker season before you know it. "Ron works at one-speed – 100 miles an hour – and he goes at that speed all the time. From the time he wakes up until he goes to sleep, if he goes to sleep, he is going to be doing anything he can to make his players and football team better," says Mike Gottfried, ESPN analyst. Fortunately for Zook, his top two producers are back in 2008. SR QB Juice Williams, who led the Big Ten in passing and total offense last season, and Big Ten 1st-team WR Arrelious Benn pave the way. By the way, last year's offense and defense performed better than 2007's Rose Bowl team. Go figure.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (11/7)
INDIANA – *8 / 9
Team Theme – KELLEN ME SOFTLY
It was a grand master plan. Move 3-year starting quarterback Kellen Lewis to wide receiver and have him work in tandem with JR QB Ben Chappell. Last spring, Chappell had won the job because of a team suspension handed to Lewis. After winning back the starting job last August, Lewis responded with a dazzling performance in season-opening victory over Western Kentucky that earned a fifth conference player of the week award. Then came a series of nagging injuries and another suspension that slowed Lewis and he spent most of the remainder of the 2008 season either on the sideline or rotating between quarterback, receiver and running back. Head coach Bill Mallory gave Lewis a second chance. Unfortunately, he won't get a third. Lewis was booted from the team this spring. Nonetheless, 8 other players will be playing new positions this year, including 7 from offense to defense. Talk about a team in transition!
PASS
IOWA – *6 / 8
Team Theme – FIELD OF DREAMS
On the whole, there is a lot to like about the Hawkeyes this season. Sure, they lost RB Shonn Greene (1850 yards, 2nd best in the nation) and two 1st team all-Big Ten offensive linemen to the NFL draft, but they are still well-fortified. Five 2nd team all-Big Ten performers, two of whom are offensive linemen, join QB Ricky Stanzi, an all-Big Ten 3rd teamer. Filling Greene's shoes is SO RB Jewel Hampton, who played as a true freshman in 2008. He rushed for 463 yards and scored seven touchdowns, the most TD's ever by an Iowa true freshman. Seven home games lace the schedule and home is where the wins have been. Iowa is 42-9 at Kinnick Stadium the last eight years. With Iowa's offense and defense each improved by more than 50 YPG last season, the Hawkeyes dream of being a player in the Big Ten chase in 2009 may be real.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (10/24)
MICHIGAN – *11 / 5
Team Theme – BOTTOMS UP
You know you've had a bad year when your team suffered its first nine-loss season in its 129-year history, had a 33-year bowl streak snapped and lost five games SU as a favorite. To put things into perspective for Wolverine head coach Rich Rodriguez, the 9 losses Michigan endured last year equal those Bo Schembechler suffered in his first seven seasons combined with the Wolves. It's a toss-up who had a rougher year in the state of Michigan, the Wolverines football team or the automakers. In his second year in Ann Arbor, with a cast of 16 starters back from last year's squad (including 11 on offense), Rodriguez only hopes for the kind of success he had in his second year at West Virginia, when he led the Mountaineers to a 9-4 season after going 3-8 in his debut. It can't get any worse.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (11/21)
MICHIGAN STATE – 7 / 8
Team Theme – DRUNK WITH SUCCESS
Here's to a masterful job by Mark Dantonio is his two years with the Spartans. After inheriting a team that had suffered through three straight losing seasons, Dantonio has lifted MSU to new heights in short order, taking them to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1997. Given that success and Michigan's dismal 2008 season, the Spartans will be favored to beat state-rival Michigan in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1967. That's pretty much a no-no in our books. Losing 3-year starters QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer to the NFL draft doesn't help. The bottom line is we're not fond of teams that improved their win total by two games despite a decline on both sides of the ball. It's often a sign of too much bubbly, too soon. Be careful here.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Michigan (10/3)
MINNESOTA – *10 / 8
Team Theme – BACK AND DECKER
After an atrocious 1-11 mark in 2007, the Gophers tied for the 2nd best turnaround in the nation in 2008 when they finished 7-6 on the season. The biggest strides were made on the defensive side of the ball where Minnesota improved a whopping 138 YPG, marking the 3rd best improvement in the land. In fact, the 22 sacks registered by the defense last year tied Nebraska for top honors in the country. Better news is 18 starters are back in 2009, including QB Adam Weber and SR WR Eric Decker, whose 84 receptions was best in the Big 10 in 2008. Here's hoping they enjoy their new digs at the TCF Bank Stadium in 2009. That's where their wins will need to be manufactured, with nine opponents who had winning records last season dotting this year's itinerary.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Michigan State (10/31)
NORTHWESTERN – 5 / 8
Team Theme – KAFKA PROJECT
We called the Wildcats a "sleeper team" last season and, like a heavy dose of Ambien, they knocked the opposition out. Thanks to a vastly improved defense, Pat Fitzgerald's troops won 9 games for the first time since 1996. This year's schedule is laced with seven home games (for the third straight year), plus a conspicuous absence of Ohio State and Michigan. That would normally send a ripple of excitement through a coach's veins. However, the problem is the loss of 23 seniors, including QB C. J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton, the keys to the offense, could pose a major problem. Mike Kafka, who started two games and rushed for 217 yards against Minnesota last season, is projected to take the snaps this year. The Wildcats may not sniff 9 wins this season, but they should be able to sleepwalk their way to another bowl game.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Minnesota (9/26)
OHIO STATE – *4 / 7
Team Theme – COCKED AND LOADED
The definition of a dual-threat quarterback is one who has exceptional ability passing and running the football. The epitome of the same is Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State's sophomore sensation. In his freshman season, he ran for 631 yards and threw for 1311 yards while completing 60.6 percent of his pass attempts. To those who question his passing ability, we say rubbish. His 146.5 QB rating was the best in the Big 10. The word around Columbus this year is "expect the unexpected". What we expect to see is a newly unveiled "pistol offense", one designed to maximize Pryor's talents. "I can tell you the coaches are fired up. Coach Tressel is really fired up. I think this is going to be very fun. Everyone seems to be looking forward to this," exclaimed Pryor. With no back-to-back travelers this season, a 5th straight Big 10 title looms.
PLAY ON: vs. IOWA (11/14)
PENN STATE – *5 / 4
Team Theme – OCTO MAN RETURNS
There are not many coaches we can do this with so, while we still can, let's revisit the Joe Paterno library. Since Joe Pa became the head coach at Penn State in 1966, there have been 839 head coaching changes in Division-1 football programs – an average of more than seven per team. The octogenarian's teams are 40-11 the last four seasons, while his defense is ranked No. 4 overall in that span, allowing 294 YPG. His 383 career-wins keeps him one-up on Bobby Bowden in the race of all-time winningest coaches. More important, he's fully recovered from hip surgery and is back on the sidelines with his troops. The Lions were hit hard with player losses, especially in the defensive backfield, where all 4 starters are gone. "I've very concerned about it. We've got a long way to go," said Paterno. Let's hope he does, too.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Ohio State (11/7)
PURDUE – 4 / 7
Team Theme – PLENTY OF HOPE
There was a tear in our eye when Joe Tiller left the Boilermakers. After all, he was, pure-and-simple, a moneymaking machine. In home games, that is, where Purdue was 41-29-1 ATS under his tenure. In what is fast becoming a trend in college football these days, a replacement had already been hired in anticipation of Tiller's retirement. At Purdue, it was Danny Hope, head coach at Eastern Kentucky from 2003-07, where his teams went 32-8 in conference play. Hope worked under Tiller last year and during the 1997-2001 seasons. The offense loses Big 10 passing leader, Curtis Painter, in addition to WR Desmond Tardy and RB Kory Sheets. 5th-year SR QB Joey Elliott hopes to fill Painter's shoes. "He has all the intangibles to be very good for us," said Gary Nord, Purdue's OC. Here's hoping Nord is right.
PLAY ON: vs. Ohio State (10/17)
WISCONSIN – *6 / 5
Team Theme – GOOD, BETTER, BEST
You can pretty much assess a coach's worth after his first three years on the job. If this coach owns a better record than his predecessor posted in the previous three year span, the new guy is generally on the path to success. If his team is underachieving, it's almost always a matter of time before a pink slip is issued. In Brett Bielema's case, he inherited a team that went 26-12 in its previous three seasons, all under his current boss, Barry Alvarez. The results are in and Bielema has passed the test. He went 28-11 in his first three seasons with the Badgers, and, in the process, improved an already staunch team. Last year's unit set a school record with six games were decided by 3 or less points. That's a tendency of good defensive coaches. They out-coach other coaches, even the better ones.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (9/26)
College football betting preview: The Big Ten is back
By Ben Burns.
All you Big Ten haters better be changing your tune.
The Big Ten is back, with four teams capable of making a BCS-sized impact and a couple of upstarts flying under the public’s radar.
In recent years, the conference’s reputation has taken a major beating.
The Big Ten went 15-26 ATS in non-conference games in 2008. Ohio State and Penn State each got clobbered by USC, and the Buckeyes looked slow in BCS Championship Game losses to Florida and LSU.
But this year you can put the Big Ten’s four best teams—Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois and Iowa—up against any other conference’s top four and feel confident.
There’s a significant drop off after those four, who all return experienced quarterbacks. Of the remaining teams, only Minnesota returns an established starting quarterback. Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin could have opening day starters, who have never played in a Division I game.
Oddsmakers have pinned the Buckeyes (+150) as the favorites to win the conference. But Penn State (+250), Iowa (+500) and Illinois (+600) are in the mix. At +7500, Purdue, with new coach Danny Hope, is the biggest longshot.
Overall, the Big Ten will be an improved conference, especially up top. There is money to be made, as long as the public’s perception of the Big Ten remains a slow, out-of-date conference.
BIG TEN PROJECTED FINISH - ATS records are from last three seasons
1. Ohio State
ATS: 22-15 (Home: 9-10, Away: 12-3)
Thing to remember: Being away from Columbus hasn’t affected the Buckeyes. They are 11-2 ATS in their last games as road favorites.
2. Penn State
ATS: 19-18 (Home: 11-8, Away: 6-9)
Thing to remember: The Nittany Lions have been lethal as double-digit favorites. They’ve covered 13 of their last 18 when giving up at least 10 points.
3. Iowa
ATS: 15-21 (Home: 7-11, Away: 5-9)
Thing to remember: The Hawkeyes own the Big Ten’s best in-conference ATS record this decade. Since 2000, Iowa is 43-27-2 ATS in conference play.
4. Illinois
ATS: 16-18 (Home: 7-9, Away: 9-5)
Thing to remember: Illinois gets off to hot offensive starts under Ron Zook. The Illini has averaged more than 25 points a game in the first month of the season in Zook’s four years. Thirteen of their last 19 September games have gone over the total.
5. Michigan
ATS: 16-20-1 (Home: 8-13, Away: 7-6-1) Non: 0-4
Thing to remember: In Rich Rodriguez’s second season at West Virginia, the Mountaineers went 9-3 ATS, including 7-0 in conference.
6. Michigan State
ATS: 17-18-2 (Home: 7-11-3, Away: 9-6)
Thing to remember: It took coach Mark Dantonio three years to get things turned around at Cincinnati. He enters his third season at Michigan State with 15 returning starters and his best team yet.
7. Wisconsin
ATS: 18-18 (Home: 10-8; Away: 6-8) Non: 2-2
Thing to remember: The quarterback situation is a huge question mark. Senior Dustin Sherer was inconsistent while splitting time last season. The only other option is talented redshirt freshman Curt Phillips.
8. Northwestern
ATS: 16-18 (Home: 7-10; Away: 7-8) Non: 2-2
Thing to remember: Eight starters return on a defense that held opponents to 20 points a game, the lowest total points allowed by a Northwestern team this decade. Bonus: The Wildcats still don’t deal with success well. They are 3-12 ATS after a straight-up win the past three seasons.
9. Purdue
ATS: 17-19 (Home: 7-11; Away: 10-6)
Thing to remember: Fading the young Boilermakers early, before switching gears and backing them late could pay dividends.
First-year head coach Danny Hope inherits an inexperienced offense and a talented defense, with multiple NFL prospects.
This team will mature into a dangerous squad come late October and November.
10. Minnesota
ATS: 18-17 (Home: 8-9; Away: 9-7)
Thing to remember: The Golden Gophers return 17 starters, the most in the Big Ten.
11. Indiana
ATS: 14-20 (Home: 9-10; Away: 4-9)
Thing to remember: Both of Indiana’s safeties are coming off ACL injuries and might not be at full strength until late in the year at best. One corner is converting from wide receiver; the other is an inexperienced sophomore.
Good quarterbacks should be able to shred the Hoosiers’ secondary.
Bonus note: The Hoosiers haven’t posted a winning ATS record in conference play this decade.
PLAY THE OVER ON …
Michigan.
Rich Rodriguez knows how to score points.
During his time at West Virginia, the Mountaineers averaged more than 30 points in six of his eight seasons, including his second season in charge.
Now, Rodriguez enters his second season at Michigan, trying to make up for last year’s 3-9 (2-10 ATS) debacle.
With 10 starters returning on offense and a quarterback tailored for his spread option, expect the Wolverines to put up 30-plus often this season.
Defensively, Michigan is inexperienced up front. New defensive coordinator Greg Robinson promises to aggressively attack with frequent blitzes.
If the Wolverines aren’t on all the same page immediately, they’ll surrender some big plays, especially early in the season.
PLAY THE UNDER ON …
Iowa.
The Hawkeyes boast an offensive line capable of wearing down opponents then pounding them on the ground.
Three starters return from a unit that pushed South Carolina all over the field a dominating Outback Bowl performance.
Iowa built a 31-0 lead and basically ran out the clock in the second half against the Gamecocks.
That could be a familiar scene for Hawkeyes games this season, especially against opponents who struggle to contain the run.
TALENT-GAUGING SEPTEMBER GAMES
Check out these early games to see how the Big Ten stacks up
Missouri vs. Illinois, Sept. 5
USC at Ohio State, Sept 12
Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept. 12
Michigan State at Notre Dame, Sept. 19
Arizona at Iowa, Sept. 19
California at Minnesota, Sept. 19
Big 10 College Football Preview
by: Great Lakes Sports
Welcome to another exciting College Football season and we here at Great Lakes Sports will give our predictions for the Big Ten conference on who we think will win the Big 10 title, and as always good luck this season from Great Lakes Sports.
1. Ohio State- The Buckeyes have lost a lot on the offensive side of the ball with only five returning starters but do return seven starters back on defense. Ohio State is led the top freshman QB in the country last year in Terrelle Pryor. The Ohio State Buckeyes bolstered their recruiting with one of the top recruiting classes in the country led by 6’1” LB Dorian Bell and 5’11” RB Jaamal Berry. We look for their defense not to miss a beat, and if Pryor can lead his offensive troops the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten conference. The key game here is September 12th against the USC Trojans, and if they can win this game their could be talk of a possible BCS title game in Buckeye country.
2. Penn State- The Nittany Lions return five starters back on offense and only four starters back on defense but they do have a lot of depth, and are led by senior QB Daryll Clark who threw for 2,592 yards with a 19-6 ratio last season. The Penn State are not only legitimate Big Ten title contenders with an easy non-conference schedule but if they get by the Ohio State Buckeyes at home their maybe NCAA title talks in Penn State country. We look for the Penn State Nittany Lions to end up in second place in the highly competitive Big Ten conference and end up in a New Years Day Bowl.
3. Iowa- The Iowa Hawkeyes return six starters on offense and eight starters back on defense for head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes could be a sleeper this year coming off a pretty good 9-4 season last year, and even though they lost one of the top RB in the country in Shonn Greene they have a capable RB in Jewell Hampton who had a 5.1ypc last season. The Iowa Hawkeyes do have tough road games at Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State that’s why we at Great Lakes Sports calls for the Iowa Hawkeyes to finish in third place in the Big Ten with a New Years Day Bowl in reach.
4. Michigan- The Wolverines head coach Rich Rodriguez to his lumps last year as the Michigan Wolverines had one of their worst seasons in history going 3-9, but don’t worry Michigan Fans there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Wolverines have almost everyone back on offense with 10 offensive starters and five starters back on defense. The Michigan Wolverines had a very solid recruiting class that will fit in Rodriguez scheme on both sides of the ball led by freshman QB Tate Forcier who is 6’1” with a solid throwing arm. We look for the Wolverines to finish in forth place and get back into a bowl game this season.
5. Wisconsin- The Badgers have six returning offensive starters and five starters back on defense from a team that went 7-6 last season. The Wisconsin Badgers also lost top running back in PJ Hill, and most team would be rebuilding with as much talent as the Badgers lost, but with a highly motivated coach such as Bret Bielema who is in his fourth year as head coach with the Badgers we look for another seven or eight win season for Wisconsin, and they will also end up in another bowl game this year.
6. Illinois- The Illinois Fighting Illini returns eight starters back on offense including senior QB Juice Williams who threw for 3,173 yards with a 22-16 ratio. The Fighting Illini returns five starters back on defense, and with tough games against Missouri, Ohio State and Penn State we look for a sub par year for the Illinois Fighting Illini with a sixth place finish in the highly competitive Big Ten conference.
7. Michigan State- The Michigan State Spartans had a very solid 9-4 record last year for head coach Mark Dantonio, and with fifteen starters coming back seven on offense and eight on defense we look for possible another fine College Football season for the Spartans. The reason we here at Great Lakes Sports calls for the Spartans to finish in seventh place is a murderous road schedule as they will travel to an much improve Notre Dame team, and the Spartans will also travel to Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota. The Spartans also have a tough home slate with interstate rival Michigan, and Penn State and Michigan State will need to slit on the road if they have any hopes of making a bowl game this season.
8. Purdue- The Purdue Boilermakers had a terrible 4-8 record last season, and with first year coach Danny Hope taking charge this will be a tough learning experience for him. The Boilermakers are returning five starters back on offense and seven starters back on defense, and they have not much left on offense with no QB Curtis Painter, and RB Kory Sheets. The Boilermakers will have to play solid defense with a lot a depth on the defensive side of the ball, but with tough game against Oregon, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin this will be another dismal year for the Purdue Boilermakers finishing in eighth place in the Big Ten conference.
9. Minnesota- The Minnesota Golden Gophers return nine starter back on offense and eight starters back on defense including junior QB Adam Weber who threw for 2,761 yards with a 15-8 ratio, and with almost everyone coming back this still could be a down year for third year coach Tim Brewster and his troops. The Golden Gophers still lack depth on the defensive side of the ball as they gave up a terrible 24 points per game last year, and with Minnesota’s tough schedule against teams like Air Force, California, Penn State, and Ohio State we look for a five or a six win season for the Golden Gophers and a ninth place finish in the Big Ten conference.
10. Northwestern- The Wildcats return only five starters back on offense, and eight starters back on defense but they lost their top QB in CJ Bacher, and top RB in Tyrell Sutton this could be a long season for the Northwestern Wildcats. The Wildcats had no depth on both sides of the ball last year, and will be putting in players with little or no experience, and with the Wildcats playing Penn State Iowa, & Illinois we here at Great Lakes Sports will call for the Northwestern Wildcats to finish in tenth place in the highly competitive Big Ten conference.
11. Indiana- The Indiana Hoosiers have had troubles the last couple of years going 3-9 last year and with the Hoosiers returning only six offensive starters the Hoosiers will have trouble scoring points. The bright Spot is they do have almost everyone back on defense with nine starters back but they gave up an amazing 35 points per game last year. The Indiana Hoosiers also have tough games against Michigan, Ohio State Iowa, and Penn State, and we here are Great Lakes Sports calls for the Indiana Hoosiers to end up with a last place finish in the highly competitive Big Ten conference.