Big 10 Preview Saturday, October 9th
By: Tom Stryker
With five teams still unbeaten in Big Ten play, the chase for roses is far from decided. But, with this week’s headline game in Ann Arbor, some key questions about the power in the conference could be decided. Yes, the marquis game features unbeaten Michigan State at the Big House, against the unbeaten Wolverines. But, in other key action, Ohio State (hosting Indiana) and Northwestern (hosting Purdue) hope to stay perfect in the league – as will Iowa – idle this Saturday. Let’s look at this week’s action:
MICHIGAN ST at MICHIGAN
The legions of Maize and Blue supporters are no longer climbing on Rich Rodriguez’ back, at least until after Saturday, because of the surprising 5-0 start. Michigan has rode the whirlwind of offensive production produced by quarterback Denard Robinson, the nation’s leading rusher.
But the Spartans of Coach Mark Dantonio have matched that 5-0 start, and hold an impressive win over Wisconsin in their early-season credentials. Dantonio, who suffered a heart attack after the Notre Dame game and missed the Spartans’ victories over Northern Colorado and the Badgers, will be on hand Saturday.
Certainly a key ingredient to watch in this one will be Michigan’s porous defense, a unit that yielded 480 passing yards in a last-minute victory at Indiana last Saturday. The Spartans are physical – but are they quick enough to keep Robinson in check? Defense will decide the winner in this one.
But remember, the Wolverines will have the frenzied 106,000-plus fans and the sting of double revenge and two straight losing seasons as their fuel for this matchup.
SERIES HISTORY NOTE: Michigan 21-9 SU and 13-15-2 ATS since 1980
KEY ANGLES: Wolverines 28-42-2 ATS as a Big 10 home favorite, including 8-21-1 ATS in this role provided UM is not off a momentum building blowout win of 10 points or more.
Michigan State 22-13 ATS on the Big 10 road facing a team that enters off two or more straight up wins including 15-5 ATS in this set provided the Spartans enter off a straight up win as well.
INDIANA at OHIO STATE
Coach Jim Tressell will be looking for his 100th victory in Columbus when his Buckeyes take on Indiana Saturday in the Horseshoe. And Ohio State will be looking to nail down its 16th straight victory over I.U. Ranked No. 2 in the nation, Ohio State has won 11 straight games and 38 of their last 42 Big Ten games.
Saturday’s contest features the matchup of two of the league’s premier quarterbacks in Terrelle Pryor and Indiana’s Ben Chappell. Pryor, dinged a little in last week’s triumph at Illinois, will be ready to go – looking for an Ohio State record-tying 6th 300-yard game in total offense. And Chappell will be trying to air some magic for the Hoosiers. Chappell leads the conference in passing with 342.5 yards a game.
The Hoosiers have another weapon in wide receiver Tandon Doss, the league’s leader in receiving yardage at 107.7 per game – and in all-purpose yardage at 211 yards per game.
But it’s the Ohio State defense that may dictate the outcome in this one. Ohio State’s pass defense could give Chappell fits. The Buckeyes defense leads the league in pass defense at 161.8 yards an outing.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Ohio State 23-2-1 SU and 17-7-2 ATS since 1980
KEY ANGLES: Buckeyes 52-11 SU and 39-23-1 ATS L63 as a conference host.
Hoosiers are 41-61-2 ATS as a Big 10 guest coming off a conference game including 10-33 SU and 14-29 ATS in this role coming off a point spread victory. Also, Hoosiers are 6-18 SU and ATS after Michigan wars including 3-15 ATS in this role priced as an underdog.
PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN
A night game that involves a nationally-ranked Northwestern football team – what’s this? Yes – Saturday at Evanston and Coach Pat Fitzgerald knows how important this matchup with the Boilermakers is for his Wildcats. Northwestern is 5-0 and has won 8 straight games dating back to last season. And the ‘Cats have not opened a year 6-0 since 1962, when Ara Parseghian prowled the shores of Lake Michigan as Northwestern’s head coach.
Junior quarterback Dan Persa is one big reason Northwestern is tasting so much success this fall. He leads the nation in pass completion percentage at 79.4%. Northwestern benefits in the league race – not playing Ohio State or Michigan this year. But the Wildcats five early-season victories have come at the expense of teams with a combined 6-14 record.
If Purdue (2-2) and Coach Danny Hope plan on slowing Northwestern, it will have to do it with a new quarterback under center. Redshirt freshman Rob Henry will be the quarterback, with season starter Robert Marve out for the season with a knee injury. Henry played well in the second half of a loss to Toledo and helped a week ago in a victory over Ball State. But this will be the biggest test of his fledgling career.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Northwestern 8-20 SU and 12-16 ATS since 1980.
KEY ANGLES: Wildcats 22-10 ATS in Big 10 playing coming off a pointspread loss.
Purdue is 12-42-1 SU and 21-32-2 ATS away in conference play versus a foe that enters off a straight up win. Also, Boilermakers 3-9 ATS off a straight up loss with rest.
MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN
This one is a game pitting two teams without much margin for error.
Wisconsin was toppled at Michigan State recently and knows two losses will make any chances for Big Ten hardware extremely difficult. And it’s worse for Minnesota, where Coach Tim Brewster’s team stands 1-4 SU and 15-28 SU in his tenure. The wolves are at his door – and only a remarkable turnaround in the second half of the season is likely to save his job.
Bret Bielema’s Badgers still are ranked 19th – and feature the nation’s 25-ranked unit it total defense, allowing only 301 yards a game.
Freshman James White, the league’s top frosh for two successive weeks, has gained 243 yards and scored 6 touchdowns in those two outings. He gives quarterback Scott Tolzien a good option. Tolzien, with teams keying on the Wisconsin running game, is the 6th highest quarterback with a 147.6 passing efficiency rating.
It’s the battle for the axe, but not much more is at stake here.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Wisconsin 20-10 SU and 17-11-2 ATS since 1980.
KEY ANGLES: Badgers 39-24 SU and 38-25 ATS at home in conference play facing a foe that enters off a straight up loss. Also, Wisconsin 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS L14 as Big 10 host.
Gophers 6-10-1 ATS L16 as double-digit conference road dog.
ILLINOIS at PENN STATE
Illinois head coach Ron Zook has made progress, but his 23-41 mark with Illinois is not drawing raves among Illini followers. A strong showing against Ohio State last Saturday did not do much to help. At 2-2 SU, he and Illinois need a statement game soon.
But against the Penn State defense, that might not be easy. The Nittany Lions are 15th in the nation, allowing only 15 points a game.
After scoring only 3 points in losses to Alabama and Iowa, it is clear what is stopping Penn State – the lack of an offense. Freshman quarterback Rob Bolden has struggled, and only senior Evan Royster (more than 3,000 career rushing yards) gives PSU much firepower.
Penn State is 11-2 SU against Illinois since joining the Big Ten – and there is little reason to think this one will be any different.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Penn State 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS since 1980.
KEY ANGLES: Illinois 11-29 SU and 16-24 ATS as Big 10 guest since 2000 including 4-21 SU and 6-19 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss. Inside the 6-19 ATS tightener, Illini 1-12 ATS in this role if its foe enters off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.
Big Ten Report - Week 6
By ASA
Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 4-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
Saturday, October 9 – 11:00 AM CST – ESPN
OSU: Last week: Defeated Illinois, 24-13
IU: Last week: Lost to Michigan, 35-42
OSU failed to cover for the first time this season with its 11-point win over Illinois last weekend. The Buckeyes were able to gain just 290 yards on offense (213 of which came on the ground) and only led by four points with under 5:00 minutes remaining. Star QB Terrelle Pryor had to leave the game after suffering a quadricep injury, but later returned and is probable for this weekend.
Indiana's QB Chappell torched Michigan for 480 pass yards, 221 of which went to star WR Doss. Indiana brings Big Ten's best passing attack (348.2 ypg) against the Big Ten’s best pass defense (OSU allowing 161.8 ypg). Chappell and his receiving corps provide a very good test for the Buckeyes defense, but unless the Hoosiers figured out how to stop the run in the past week (108th nationally in rush D), Ohio State (214 rush ypg) shouldn’t have a problem winning this one. Ohio State has averaged 244 rushing yards against the Hoosiers in the past six meetings.
OSU has won 15 straight against the Hoosiers and is 7-0-1 ATS the past 8 meetings. Indiana has lost 11 straight Big Ten road games and they opened as 23.5 point underdogs (line now at 21.5 points). The Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a double digit favorite and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 conference games.
Michigan Wolverines (5-0, 3-2 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (5-0, 3-2 ATS)
Saturday, October 9 – 2:30 PM CST – ABC or ESPN
UM: Last week: Defeated Indiana, 42-35
MSU: Last week: Defeated Wisconsin, 34-24
Michigan State overcame three first half turnovers and the absence of head coach Mark Dantonio to notch a huge win over #11 Wisconsin last weekend. MSU controlled the game with 36 minutes T.O.P. and +152 yards against the Badgers. Dantonio is expected to be in the press box at the Big House for their first Big Ten road game and that could be a lift for Sparty. MSU opened as 4-point underdogs.
The Wolverines are still pretty much a one-man show with QB Denard Robinson. Robinson now has 1,913 total yards of offense through five games. Michigan had a 5 play, 73 yard touchdown drive with 21 seconds left to get a 42-35 win over Indiana last weekend. They gave up 568 yards of total offense and 35 first downs (!) to the Hoosiers, including 480 through the air. Their defensive unit will be tested again this week against the Spartans offense that averages 460 ypg (240 pass, 220 rush) and 36 ppg.
Robinson and this Michigan offense will be facing their first legitimate stop unit. This MSU defense has allowed just 101 rushing ypg (18th) and 18.2 ppg. Michigan State has come out on top of this rivalry in back-to-back years and is aiming for its first three game win streak over the Wolverines for the first time since 1965-67. MSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and Michigan is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. The over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Wisconsin Badgers (4-1, 1-4 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-4, 2-3 ATS)
Saturday, October 9 – 11:00 AM CST – Big Ten Network
UW: Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 24-34
MINN: Last Week: Lost to Northwestern, 28-29
The Paul Bunyan axe is at stake in the oldest rivalry in college football. This is a huge game for both teams. Wisconsin needs a bounce back win after falling to Michigan State on the road, and Minnesota needs a victory to end a four game losing streak and salvage a lost season. Wisconsin has won six straight in this series and has covered four of the past five meetings at Camp Randall. The Badgers opened as a 21-point favorite.
Traveling to Wisconsin may come as a relief to the Gophers. Their 29-28 loss to Northwestern last weekend notched their fourth consecutive home defeat of the season. Offensively, the Gophers are averaging a respectable 407 ypg (36th) and 27 ppg. It’s their defense that has really struggled. Minnesota is allowing 221 pass ypg, 186 rush ypg and 31 ppg this season. UM is 7-2 ATS in its past nine Big Ten road games and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a road underdog.
The Badgers have a trio of talented running backs in Clay, White, and Ball. Combined, they are averaging 227 ypg (6.3 ypc) with 15 touchdowns. Wisconsin has scored 38.5 ppg against the Gophers in its six game winning streak but four of those games have been decided by seven points or less. This matchup has been high scoring and close (the over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings) and with Minnesota players hungry for a win, Saturday’s meeting should be no different.
Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 1-4 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
Saturday, October 9 – 11:00 AM CST – ESPN2
PSU: Last week: Lost to Iowa, 3-24
ILL: Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 13-24
Penn State continued its offensive struggles with just 301 total yards and 3 points in the loss to Iowa. They now have a total of 6 points in two road games this season. True Frosh QB Bolden is completing 58% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 6 INT’s. His ineffectiveness is allowing defenses to focus on shutting down the run (RB Royster is averaging just 71 rush ypg and has one touchdown in five games). PSU’s defense is strong enough to keep the Nittany Lions in games (18th total defense), but the offense remains inconsistent and continues to underachieve.
Illinois has upgraded its defense under new coordinator Vic Koenning. The Illini allowed under 300 yards to the Buckeyes last week and held them to a season low 24 points. Their very similar to PSU in the way that their offense is holding them back. Frosh QB Scheelhaase is completing just 54% with 3 TD’s and 4 INT’s and he leads the 88th ranked offense in the nation. Illinois is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home but they haven’t had much luck in Happy Valley.
Penn State has won six straight at home in this series, winning by an average of 15 ppg and they opened as an 8 point favorite this weekend. Illinois is just 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 Big Ten road openers, averaging just 15 ppg and allowing 33 ppg to opponents. But the Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and the road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Northwestern Wildcats (5-0, 2-3 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
Saturday, October 9 – 6:30 PM CST – Big Ten Network
NU: Last week: Defeated Minnesota, 29-28
PU: Last week: BYE
After surviving at Minnesota last weekend, Northwestern opened as a 10-point favorite to record its first 6-0 start since 1962. The Wildcats face an injury-ravaged Purdue team that has already lost its top two quarterbacks, top three running backs, and top receiver to injuries. They used their week off to get new players integrated into the offense, including Frosh QB Henry. Northwestern opened as a 10-point favorite.
The Boilers are coming off of a much-needed bye week after their upset loss to Toledo two weeks ago. Head coach Danny Hope called out some of the veteran defensive players after they allowed 378 yards and 31 points to a Toledo team that was last in the NCAA in total offense (220 ypg). NU QB Dan Persa is completing 79.4% of his passes for 272 YPG (10.0 yards per pass!) with 10 TD’s and just 2 INT’s. He could do a lot damage if this defense isn’t well prepared.
Purdue is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 trips to Northwestern but just 1-5 ATS in its past six Big Ten road openers. Northwestern is 5-10 ATS in its past 15 as a double digit favorite and 5-19 ATS in the past 24 games as a home favorite. Last year, Purdue held a 21-3 lead but ended up losing 27-21 (had 1st & goal on the 7 yard line but was stopped on downs).
Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 3-2 ATS)
BYE
Last week: Defeated Penn State, 24-3
The Hawkeyes won with a dominant defensive performance against Penn State last weekend. This defense (ranked 5th) is allowing just 63 rushing ypg and 10.2 ppg. QB Stanzi is completing 68% of his passes with 10 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Iowa has two weeks to prepare for Robinson and Michigan.