Big 12 College Football Betting Preview
By Art Aronson
The Baylor Bears, returning a bevy of starters this season, are the favorites to win the Big 12. But will they be able stop Trevone Boykin and the TCU Horned Frogs?
Baylor Bears (2014: 11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 5-2
Season win total: 10
Why bet the Bears: Why not? Baylor brings back just about everyone except quarterback Bryce Petty, and the Bears will go into just about every game this season knowing that they will be able to bully their opponents on both sides of the line.
Why not bet the Bears: A trio of cupcakes early in the season (SMU, Lamar and Rice) could create a false sense of security for when the real games start in October. At least whoever is calling signals will be able to get his feet wet without too much pressure.
Season win total pick: Over 10
Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2014: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 10
Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU will put up points. A lot of points. Trevone Boykin is back at QB after finishing fourth in the country in total offense last season. Top wideout Josh Doctson also returns after setting single-season school record for TD catches and yards. Yikes.
Why not bet the Horned Frogs: The other side of the ball is a problem, especially at linebacker. TCU uses only two LBs, and both of them will be newbies after the departures of standouts Paul Dawson and Chris Hackett. May take a while before TCU can stop decent offenses.
Season win total pick: Push
Oklahoma Sooners (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 9
Why bet the Sooners: After a step-back and somewhat disappointing 2014 season, OSU revamped its offense. Lincoln Riley moves in from East Carolina as OC and will give the Sooners a wide-open offense. And if that doesn’t work, they can just hand off to Samaje Perine, one of the best in the Big 12.
Why not bet the Sooners: Questions are everywhere in a program that was once of the top 5 in the country. Might be a good idea to stay off this team, which must play at Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Kansas State and Baylor. Ouch.
Season win total pick: Under 9
Oklahoma State Cowboys (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Cowboys: Things are looking up in Stillwater, where the Cowboys surprised even themselves by finishing over .500 and defeating Washington in the Cactus Bowl in what was expected to be a serious rebuild. QB Mason Rudolph, who figured to red-shirt last season but was pressed into service, is a good one. Defense isn’t bad, either.
Why not bet the Cowboys: Careful here. OSU gave up 47 more points than it scored last season, and even that number was inflated by a meaningless 30-point victory over Texas-San Antonio.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Texas Longhorns (2014: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Longhorns: Should be value to be had here because Texas is just not perceived as a Top-25 program anymore. But Charlie Strong has some talent, and as road wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State proved last season, the guy can coach.
Why not bet the Longhorns: Texas averaged only 21.7 points a game last season, and while the spread offense this year will be new, there is no guarantee it will be better. The Longhorns were beaten by Baylor, Kansas State and TCU by an average score of 33-16 in 2014.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Kansas State Wildcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Wildcats: Does Bill Snyder ever have a bad season? Somehow Snyder managed to cajole nine wins out of last year’s squad, and no one should bet too heavily against him finding a way to keep the Cats in the mix this season.
Why not bet the Wildcats: Kansas State may be the only big-time program in the country with a starting QB who has never played the positon at any level. Joe Hubener looks like the No. 1 QB at this point, and the walk-on played several other positions in high school, but not quarterback.
Season win total pick: Over 7
West Virginia Mountaineers (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 15-1
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Mountaineers: WVU will score – it always does. QB Skyler Howard will get nothing but better and running back Rushel Shell could be one of the top backs in the country if he stays healthy – he had 788 on the ground last season despite fighting a sprained ankle for much of the season. Defense has to plug a few holes, but should be among the best in the conference.
Why not bet the Mountaineers: Hopes always seem high at WVU, but the math is irrefutable – the Mountaineers are 18-20 in their last three seasons and are firmly ensconced in the middle of the conference. They’re probably two recruiting classes from serious contention.
Season win total pick: Over 8
Texas Tech Red Raiders (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 20-1
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Red Raiders: Last season could have been a bit of an aberration. Tech never really got things going, lost some games early due to turnovers, and the whole somehow seemed smaller than the sum of its parts. The Raiders were better than their record showed, and they have a solid offensive line to start with this year.
Why not bet the Red Raiders: There’s instability at the QB position, where neither Patrick Mahome nr Davis Webb has been able to separate from the other. Then there’s the defense, which allowed more points than any team in the conference last season (495) and seems capable of allowing 50-plus on any given Saturday.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Iowa State Cyclones (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State is your basic Dollar Store team. You might be able to find some value if you look hard enough. The Cyclones should be able to move the ball pretty well, led by veteran QB Sam Richardson and a group of pretty good wideouts.
Why not bet the Cyclones: Any program that has won a total of five games in the last two seasons has problems. Another dumpster fire will probably cost Paul Rhoads his job. Rhoads will have his hands trying to repair damage in the offensive line and a defense that ranked 125th in the country last year.
Season win total pick: Over 3
Kansas Jayhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Jayhawks: Because either you have a lot of money that you don’t need to pay bills, you graduated from Kansas or you regret not being alive to watch the carnage in Rome’s Colosseum.
Why not bet the Jayhawks: All you need to know about Kansas is that only five starters return from a team that wasn’t very good last season and will probably be worse this time around. Coach David Beaty should probably spend a lot of his time on the recruiting trail, because he has one of the most difficult rebuilds in the country on his hands.
Season win total pick: Under 3