Big 12 Conference Betting Preview

Big 12 Predictions
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

I only have one season win total that I like out of the 10 schools in the Big 12. That’s Texas Tech to go ‘over’ six wins at a -130 price (risk $130 to win $100).

Kliff Kingsbury’s team returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Most important, the Red Raiders bring back junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has a 52/19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first two seasons.

Mahomes completed 364-of-573 passes (63.5%) for 4,653 yards and 36 TDs in 2015. He makes plays with his legs also, rushing for 624 yards (before deducted sack yardage) and 10 TDs.

The Texas Tech offense racked up an average of 45.1 points per game last year. This unit lost leading rusher DeAndre Washington (1,492 yards and 14 TDs) and leading receiver Jakeem Grant, who had 90 catches for 1,268 yards and 10 TDs in 2015. Nevertheless, this group won’t skip a beat and might be even better in 2016.

Texas Tech remains loaded at WR with Devin Lauderdale (42 receptions, 639 yards and 4 TDs), Ian Sadler (42-586 & 3) and Reginald Davis (38-536 & 8 ) back in the mix. Junior RB Justin Stockton will take over Washington’s duties after producing 367 yards and five TDs on just 61 carries last season. Stockton, who had a 6.0 yards-per-carry average, also had 22 catches for 341 yards and six TDs in ’15.

The defense is another story. This unit gave up 43.6 PPG last year and 41.3 PPG in ’14. Consider this: The Red Raiders lost games in ’15 when they scored 52 points (vs. TCU) and 53 points (vs. Oklahoma State).

There’s no reason to think Texas Tech’s ‘D’ is going to be vastly improved, but I don’t even think it needs to be for us to cash this ‘over.’

Remember, Kingsbury’s bunch finished the regular season with a 7-5 record last year, which obviously went ‘over’ six. And that’s with a loss to TCU when the Horned Frogs scored in the final minute on a fourth-and-goal play in which the TD pass was twice deflected by Red Raider defenders before landing in the hands of a TCU WR in the back of the end zone.

Four of Texas Tech’s five defeats were against ranked opponents. The lone loss to an unranked foe was a 31-26 setback at West Va. Six of the Red Raiders’ seven wins came by double-digit margins.

Looking at the schedule, there are two easy home wins in non-conference play against Stephen F. Austin and La. Tech. There’s a tough trip to Tempe to face Arizona State, but I think ASU is in store for a rough year and like the Red Raiders to beat the Sun Devils, much like how they emerged victorious in a September trip to Arkansas last season.

I’m confident Texas Tech will win at home vs. Kansas, West Va. and Texas. On the flip side, I doubt the Red Raiders will win at TCU or at Oklahoma State. In this scenario, Texas Tech would be 6-2 with four games remaining.

But for the sake of conversation, let’s take away one of those victories – whether it be at ASU or one of the home games vs. WVU or Texas.

If that’s the case, we’re sitting at 5-3 needing one win to push and two wins to cash a winner. The four remaining games are at Kansas State (Oct. 8 ), vs. Oklahoma (10/22), at Iowa State (11/19) and vs. Baylor in Arlington on Nov. 25.

First, let’s consider the trip to the Baby Apple. When these schools met at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock last year, Texas Tech won a 59-44 decision thanks to 658 yards of total offense. Now of course, the circumstances will be different at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. But Kansas State is off a 6-7 campaign, albeit one in which the QB position was decimated by injuries, and returns five starters on offense and seven on defense.

I like the Red Raiders to win at Kansas State. They won outright as road underdogs twice last season – at Arkansas and at Texas. Also, I like them to win at Iowa State. Texas Tech destroyed the Cyclones 66-31 in ’15 by racking up 776 yards of offense.

With those two victories, we’re in the win column already. With a split, we’re sitting at a push with a home game vs. OU and the Baylor game at Jerry World remaining. Texas Tech will almost certainly will be an underdog in both spots, but it could win either game if it plays outstanding football. OU lost to Texas as a 16.5-point favorite in ’15, and we aren’t yet sure how Baylor will perform after an offseason of adversity only rivaled by a team in Oxford, Miss.

Texas Tech ‘over’ six wins is the best season win total bet of the Big 12 schools.

Moving on to our predictions for the rest of the league…

1) Oklahoma: I have OU ranked fourth in my preseason Power Rankings, but I’ve said all summer that it probably has the easiest path to the College Football Playoff. Bob Stoops’s squad went 11-2 last season, losing 24-17 vs. Texas before running the table the rest of the regular season. In the CFP semifinals, OU led Clemson 17-16 at intermission, but the Tigers dominated the second half en route to a 37-17 victory.

Obviously, part of my thought process with OU’s ‘easiest path’ is due to the lack of a potential defeat in a conference championship game since none exists in the Big 12 since Nebraska and Colorado bolted out of the league.

The Sooners return seven starters on offense and six on defense. Most important, QB Baker Mayfield and RB Samaje Perine are back. Mayfield enjoyed a remarkable year under the direction of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, who was the best offseason coordinator hire going into ’15 (with apologies to the second-best, Texas A&M DC John Chavis). Stoops snatched Riley away from East Carolina, where he helped Shane Carden and Justin Hardy shred ECU’s history books with his ‘Air Raid’ attack. Mayfield connected on 68.1 percent of his throws for 3,700 yards and a 36/7 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for seven scores. Meanwhile, Perine ran for 1,349 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC.

Mayfield loses his favorite target Sterling Shepard, but Dede Westbrook returns after hauling in 46 receptions for 743 yards and four TDs. Geno Lewis joins the WR group as a grad transfer from Penn State after starting 18 games for the Nittany Lions in three seasons. There’s also TE Mark Andrews, who garnered first-team All Big 12 honors after making seven TD catches last year. Phil Steele ranks OU’s o-line as the second-best behind only WVU in the Big 12 and 22nd-best in the nation.

OU’s 2015 defense gave up only 22.0 PPG, which was easily tops in the Big 12. This unit will be led by LB Jordan Evans (83 tackles), DE Charles Walker (six sacks) and CB Jordan Thomas (five INTs).

I have OU going 11-1 in the regular season. There are five potential defeats on the slate – vs. Houston (at NGR Stadium in Houston), vs. Ohio State in Week 3, at TCU, at Texas Tech and at West Va. There’s also the Bedlam game in Norman, where the Cowboys were victorious as 21-point ‘dogs two seasons ago.

The Sooners do get two weeks to prepare for the toughest road assignment against the Horned Frogs in Ft. Worth. I’ll say it will be Texas Tech that clips OU.

2) Baylor: I have Baylor going 10-2. If I were to play another win total in the Big 12, it would probably be the Bears ‘over’ 8.5 at a -120 price. I’ve also seen 5Dimes with a total of nine that pays a generous plus return (+175 at last look). With that said, I’m hesitant on that play and haven’t pulled the trigger on it simply due to the uncertainty of the coaching change. Jim Grobe was a quality get under the circumstances, but only time will tell if it’s the right fit.

The offseason was obviously brutal with the dismissal of the greatest coach in school history (Art Briles), who had a remarkable run that included six straight bowl appearance and four double-digit win seasons in the last five years. But the roster remains stacked with talent. Five starters are back on each side of the ball from a 10-3 team that was unbeaten until it lost its starting QB. Two of the defeats were one-possession games, including a double OT loss at TCU and a 23-17 home setback to Texas when Baylor was down to its fourth-string QB due to injuries.

Seth Russell returns after going down in the seventh game of ’15. He was only playing 2-3 quarters per game in those seven blowouts, yet he still threw for 2,104 yards with a 29/6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 402 yards and six TDs while averaging 8.2 YPC. He has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers returning in Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson. Devin Chafin will also get his fair share of touches. That RB trio combined for 27 rushing scores last year. Also, KD Cannon was a second-team All Big pick at WR last year. The five starters back on defense were among the top six tacklers on the ’15 unit.

Assuming the Bears can beat Oklahoma State at home in Week 4, they should be favored by at least 21 points in five of their first six games (excluding only OSU). The six-game stretch to end of the regular season is tough, but Grobe’s team plays only one game (at home vs. Kansas) from Oct. 2 to Oct. 28. After an Oct. 1 game at Iowa State, Baylor has an open date before hosting KU (10/15), followed by another open date before going to Austin to face Texas. So obviously, the Bears should be fresh and healthy when taking on the Longhorns.

3) (Tie): I have Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU all finishing 8-4. We’ve covered the Red Raiders, so let’s hit on Gary Patterson’s team first. TCU brings back three starters on offense and eight on defense. The ‘D’ gave up 27.2 PPG in ’15, the worst scoring defense for the Frogs in more than a decade. I expect this unit to be improved and watch out for DE Josh Carraway, who had 47 tackles, nine sacks, nine QB hurries and 2.5 tackles for loss last season.

Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is the likely starter at QB. Now that we’ve seen that Hill isn’t the only QB to clash with Kevin Sumlin, perhaps the most important thing to remember about Hill is that he was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy until the Aggies went to Starkville in early October of 2014. He has the (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year (WR KaVontae Turpin) as one weapon, in addition to WR Deante Gray, who had to redshirt due to an injury last season.

Most books have TCU’s win total at nine with plus money (+115ish) available for ‘over’ wagers. I think the defeats come vs. OU, at WVU, at Baylor and at Texas (on a short week).

Oklahoma State went 10-3 last season for its fourth double-digit win total in the last six years. The Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense and seven on defense. The offense scored at a 39.5 PPG clip in ’15 thanks to excellent QB play from junior Mason Rudolph, who threw for 3,770 yards with a 21/9 TD-INT ratio. Rudolph has his favorite target back in James Washington, who had 53 receptions for 1,087 yards and 10 TDs.

Mike Gundy’s squad won four one-possession games and rallied from multiple double-digit deficits to win at Texas Tech by a 70-53 score. The three defeats came by double-digit margins. The Cowboys were +13 in the turnover department for the season. They were only +532 in yardage for a 10-3 team, so those numbers point to a team that was fortunate to finish seven games over .500.

I think OSU loses at Baylor, at Kansas State, at TCU and at OU. The win total is in the right place at eight flat (-110 either way).

6) Texas: This is a make-or-break season for third-year head coach Charlie Strong, who is 11-14 since arriving in Austin from Louisville. If not for a stunning win over Oklahoma last year, he might not have seen a third year at UT. He’d better go 9-3 to feel safe, but an 8-4 might work if the four defeats are close games and things are looking up for ’17. (If he gets blown out by the Sooners, the ‘unofficial’ search for a new coach probably begins within 24-48 hours.)

Strong has to get better QB play, which has been the major issue in both of his seasons at the helm. There’s hope that true freshman Shane Buechele might be the answer and he did leave high school early to participate in spring drills. Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoops are both quality runners, but they aren’t accurate passers in a league where you need to score a lot of points.

Strong was one of the SEC’s best d-coordinators for more than a decade, but even that side of the ball has struggled on his watch. Actually, the ’14 ‘D’ was solid (23.8 PPG), but last season’s unit allowed 30.3 PPG. The Longhorns scored 44 at California and 45 vs. Texas Tech, only to lose in both contests. They finished 5-7 despite a +11 tally in the turnover department. They were -982 in yardage for the year.

Seven starters return on offense and eight are back on defense. I have the Longhorns going 7-5, but that’s with wins at Cal, at Kansas State, vs. WVU and vs. TCU, none of which are givens by any means.

7) West Virginia: I also have the Mountaineers finishing 7-5. Their win total is 7.5 shaded to the ‘under’ at -120. They finished ’15 with an 8-5 mark after beating Arizona State 43-42 at the Cactus Bowl. Dana Holgorsen’s sixth team in Morgantown returns eight starters on offense but just four on ‘D.’

WVU finished second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) last year, but this unit has only one of its top seven tacklers back. And the d-line’s depth has taken a hit here recently with injuries to Xavier Pegues and Jaleel Fields. Pegues might be able to return in late October or November, but Fields is done for the season.

Phil Steele ranks WVU’s o-line as the best in the Big 12. RB Wendell Smallwood (1,519 rushing yards) is gone, but Rushel Shell (708 yards and eight TDs) is more than ready to take on a heavier load. QB Skyler Howard (26/14 TD-INT) threw for 3,145 yards and rushed for 726 (502 after subtracting sack yardage), but he needs to get more accurate (54.8%) and cut down on the turnovers. He has leading WRs Shelton Gibson (887 yards & and nine TDs) and Daikiel Shorts (528 yards & five TDs) back in the mix.

The non-conference schedule includes a home game against Missouri in Week 1 and a Week 4 game vs. BYU in Landover, MY. WVU will have two weeks to prep for the Cougars, who are at Arizona (Glendale actually), at Utah and at home vs. UCLA in the three previous weeks. The Mountaineers get their other open date leading into a road trip to Texas Tech.

To its advantage, WVU gets OU, Baylor and TCU at home, but the Frogs have two weeks to prep for the Mountaineers.

Rounding out the rest of the Big 12, I have Kansas State going 5-7, while Iowa State and KU will finish 4-8 and 2-10, respectively. Bill Snyder teams almost always turn out better than they look on paper, so the Wildcats could certainly go bowling again. They are off a 6-7 season and bring back five starters on offense and seven on ‘D.’

I just don’t feel like KSU measures up to the other Big 12 teams. Granted, the QB position was mired with injuries last year and that’s a situation that can ruin a season for most schools. But the Wildcats only beat two teams with winning records, and both of those Ws came at home to La. Tech in three OTs and vs. WVU (24-23) in a game where the Mountaineers held a 447-304 advantage in yardage. KSU finished the season minus 1,541 yards overall.

I like the hire of Matt Campbell in Ames, but Iowa State has won three games or fewer in three consecutive seasons. The Cyclones do have a stud RB in Mike Warren, who garnered (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors after rushing for 1,339 yards and five TDs in ’15. QB Joel Lanning (10/4 TD-INT) will have to hold off Jacob Park for the starting QB position. Park was a highly-rated recruit for Georgia, but he transferred after one year in Athens.

Big XII Preview
By Joe Nelson
Playbook.com

The Big XII figures to add a few teams in the coming years but in 2016 the 10-team conference will play again without a championship game and will hope for a better showing in the College Football Playoff. Last season there were a few clear cut national contenders in the league while this season there is more mystery with Oklahoma again projected to excel but a few others outside of the spotlight potentially ready to make the leap.

FAVORITE: Oklahoma

The Sooners survived an early season loss to Texas to take the Big XII title last season as injuries hurt a few of the other contenders and Oklahoma wound up 8-1 in the league and good enough to qualify for the College Football Playoffs. Oklahoma had a nice win over Tennessee early in the season but in the biggest Big XII games down the stretch the Sooners faced the top teams with back-up quarterbacks for some major scheduling breaks. Oklahoma was exposed in a 37-17 loss to Clemson in the national semifinals for tough finish to an 11-2 campaign and a tough debut for the Big XII in the short history of the College Football Playoff, a year after the league made a lot of noise about being left out. Oklahoma is a serious threat to return to the national stage but they again have a huge early season test out of the conference with Ohio State visiting Norman in Week 3. Oklahoma also faces Houston in the opening week in a dangerous game with the Cougars again a national threat from a smaller conference and a prime candidate to join the Big XII down the road. The schedule is front loaded as four of the toughest games of the season for Oklahoma will be in the first five games through early October but if the Sooners get by with only one loss they have a great shot to win out and put the program in a similar position as last season. Prolific passer Baker Mayfield is back after throwing for 3,700 yards last season as is top running back Samaje Perine. The Oklahoma defense will again present the most question marks and that unit will need to be up to the task early in the season with the pair of non-conference tests and perhaps the two toughest conference games being the first two games of the Big XII season with the opener at TCU ahead of the Red River Rivalry with Texas in Dallas.

CONTENDER: TCU

Last season was supposed to be the year for TCU and the Horned Frogs fell a bit short of national goals, slipping from 12-1 in 2014 to 11-2 in 2015 with both losses in the Big XII. While TCU won't get as much national attention early in the season as last year, the team may have a favorable path for a great season that could feature a rise to the top of the Big XII. Two big early season games at home will determine whether the Frogs are serious contenders, hosting Arkansas outside of the conference and then hosting Oklahoma in a key revenge game after losing 30-29 in Norman last season. Late season road games at Baylor and at Texas will be challenging but if Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill can smoothly take over the offense, the Horned Frogs figure to have one of the better defenses in the Big XII. It was a young defensive group depleted by injuries early last season but late in the year Gary Patterson's defense stepped up in big overtime wins over Baylor and Oregon. With several other starters from last season absent on the offense it will be difficult to match the huge production of the past two seasons but the top of the conference also looks less formidable than last season and TCU will get to host likely the biggest game of the season on October 1.

CONTENDER: Texas

The Longhorns have made a habit out of failing to reach preseason expectations much of the last decade with a disappointing run for the program, featuring at least four losses in each of the last six seasons. After failing to make a bowl game last season this is a pivotal season for Charlie Strong in his third year in Austin and he appears to have the makings of a team capable of a breakthrough. The opening week game with Notre Dame will determine whether or not the Longhorns have arrived back on the national stage or whether they will simply lurk as a Big XII sleeper. The Big XII season will open in October with a road game at Oklahoma State and a Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma after Texas stunned the Sooners 24-17 last season. Those two games figure to shape the season for Texas and if they find a way to win both they would move to the forefront of the conference picture as they will get to host the other possible contenders in big late season games with Baylor and TCU. Texas is returning a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and after several highly regarded recruiting classes the pieces should be in place for the results to shine. Texas is only 6-6 S/U at home the past two seasons under Strong however and for the Longhorns to have any hope for a title they will need to lock down wins at Memorial Stadium.

SLEEPER: Baylor

There has been nothing but bad news this offseason for Baylor with Art Briles eventually ousted after misconduct was revealed and former Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe has taken over. There have been numerous players and recruits opting to leave the program and ultimately there are a ton of questions on and off the field entering the season for a Bears program coming off three consecutive double-digit win seasons. There are enough returning players to expect that Baylor can still compete at a high level and the early season schedule should allow the Bears to ease into the season. Baylor has a light non-conference schedule highlighted by games with SMU and Rice before opening the Big XII season with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas. A 6-0 start still seems very realistic for the Bears heading into heavyweight matchups in the second half of the season. It is hard to envision Baylor beating Texas, TCU, and Oklahoma in successive weeks but the path to a surprise contending season amidst adversity is possible for a Baylor team that looked like one of the nation's elite much of last season.

IMPROVED: Kansas State

The Wildcats fell to just 6-7 last season for the worst season for the program since Bill Snyder's first year back leading the team in 2009. Kansas State wound up starting 3-0 and then losing six games in a row before a 3-0 finish to the regular season but very competitive losses vs. highly ranged squads Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor were included in the slide. The Wildcats struggled mightily on offense last season, dropping almost 90 yards per game on average compared with the previous season and the defense had a similar regression in what was a very strong conference in 2015. Kansas State has a number of difficult road games but Manhattan should return to being a very tough place to play with the Wildcats capable of winning all of its home games in 2016, through they may be dogged hosting Texas even though the Longhorns haven't won in Manhattan since 2002. The defense returns most of the key players from last season and the schedule lines up more favorably this season as the Wildcats won't have to face all the top teams in consecutive weeks as they did last season. Expect a marquee upset at least once this season and an improved win count for a Kansas State program that should be back in the postseason.

SINKING: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys were a great story last season with a 10-0 start to the season, climbing into the top 5 of the national polls. It was clearly a mirage as they had a very soft non-conference schedule and a back loaded conference slate.10-0 became 10-3 with double-digit losses in the final three games of the season including an embarrassing 35-point loss to Oklahoma and a 25-point loss in the Sugar Bowl vs. Ole Miss. Mason Rudolph returns at quarterback with a veteran roster but the schedule is demanding with five Big XII road games including four of those games likely being against the top half of the conference. Mike Gundy has delivered a great 11-year run in Stillwater with several overachieving seasons so anything is possible but it looks like a step-back season for a program that has alternated strong and mediocre seasons the last five years. Another bowl season looks very likely as Oklahoma State could definitely win all three of its non-conference games and with a few breaks the Cowboys could be a contender but it looks like a much tougher path than last season.

SINKING: West Virginia

The Mountaineers are 17-21 in four seasons in the Big XII with a 5-4 2014 season being the best conference result. Despite underwhelming results since Dana Holgorsen led the Mountaineers to the Orange Bowl in his first season as head coach the team has improved in record each of the past two seasons, getting eight wins last year after a wild bowl win. Continuing that trend looks like a serious challenge in 2016 as West Virginia has two formidable non-conference games plus the Big XII schedule that brings the top contenders to Morgantown. West Virginia went 6-1 at home last season and if they repeat that record they could be in the title hunt as they host Missouri, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma, and Baylor. With a productive senior quarterback in Skyler Howard leading a veteran offense West Virginia can certainly score a few big wins but doing so and also taking care of business in several coin-flip road games will be a tall order with West Virginia winning just once on the road last season. West Virginia did show slight improvement on defense with nine starters returning last season but it still wasn't enough to compete with the top Big XII teams and this year almost all of the key players from the 2015 defense are gone. Expect some shootouts in West Virginia games but the most likely scenario is a fall back to a .500-type season.

Big 12 Future Wagers
By ASAWins.com

Baylor – UNDER 9.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 9-3

This one is tough. Baylor is very talented and their offensive skill players are as good as any in the country. The big question is, how do they respond to the loss of their head coach Art Briles who was let go in the off-season due to a wide spread sexual assault scandal? The new coach is Jim Grobe who won AP coach of the year honors at Wake Forest in 2006 for leading the Deacs to an 11-2 record. However, how do the players adapt to Grobe and vise versa under less than ideal circumstances? Another question mark for the Bears is they are very inexperienced in the trenches. Their offensive line must replace 4 starters and their defensive line loses everyone from last season. The skill positions will be fantastic with QB Russell returning after a neck injury took him out at mid-season a year ago. RB Linwood rushed for over 1,300 yards and 4 of their top 6 pass catchers are back. Will those skill position players be as effective operating behind an inexperienced offensive line? We will see. The schedule isn’t overly tough. Baylor should be 6-0 (possibly 5-1 if they lose @ Oklahoma State) heading into late October. However from that point on the Bears have road games @ Texas, @ Oklahoma, and @ West Virginia and home games against TCU and Kansas State along with a neutral site game vs Texas Tech. The schedule is definitely back loaded and the fast start could slow down in late October. With huge losses in the trenches we’ll call for Baylor to win UNDER 9.5 games this season.

Iowa State – OVER 3.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 3-9

ISU hovered around .500 from 2009 -2012 but they have dropped off the map over the last three seasons with just an 8-27 record. Head coach Paul Rhodes was given the boot and the new man in charge is Matt Campbell who led Toledo to a 35-15 record in his 4 year stint there. Campbell is a very solid coach who we think will get ISU turned back in the right direction fairly soon. We normally lean under with teams that have new coaches but this one is set low enough we actually like the OVER a bit here. The Cyclones should be improved on both sides of the ball this season. Their defense was bad allowing 33 PPG and 453 YPG last year but they return 8 starters so those numbers should go down. The offense has some solid skill players returning including QB Joel Lanning who took over for Joel Richardson mid-season and beat Texas 24-0 in his first start. Lanning also led ISU in two very tight losses down the stretch by 3 @ Kansas State and by 4 at home vs Oklahoma State. The key will be how the offensive line progresses. The Cyclones have one of the least experience OL’s in the nation with just 25 total starts among them. They should be 2-2 after their first four games (wins vs Northern Iowa & San Jose State) and will need to win just 2 of their final 8 games to push their wins to 4. The Cyclones have 5 of those final 8 games at home and we think they can get it done this year.

Kansas – OVER 1.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 0-12

The Kansas Jayhawks have not won more than 3 games since 2008 and they took the collar last year going 0-12. Not only did this team lose all 12 games last year, they only came within 10 points twice all season long losing by 6 to TCU and by 3 to South Dakota State. They were outgained by an average of 230 YPG! They lost their Big 12 games by an average of just over 35 PPG. Can it get better this year? Well we’d say it can’t get any worse. Head coach David Beaty (formerly the WR’s coach at Texas A&M) took over one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation. With 16 starters back and a full year under the new system, the Jayhawks should be much more competitive this season. KU returns their starting QB, RB and 4 of their top 5 pass catchers. Defensively they have their top 5 tacklers back in the fold. They open the season at home vs Rhode Island who has lost 18 consecutive road games. That means Kansas should be 1-0 to start the year giving them some much needed confidence. With this number set at just 1.5, they’ll need just one more win the remainder of the season. We think they get it somewhere along the line and finish 2-10. We say 3-9 is not totally out of the question so we’ll take the OVER here.

Kansas State – OVER 5.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 6-6

We respect head coach Bill Snyder and feel he is one of the best in the business. Since he started his second stint as head coach at KSU in 2009, the Cats have not won less than 6 games (7 straight seasons). We’ll predict they get to 6 this year barely getting OVER this number but going over none the less. Snyder always seems to have his teams in a better position than most would think. Last year the Wildcats were outgained by an average of 118 YPG yet still picked up 6 regular season wins. KSU returned just 18% of their offensive yards last year from the previous season which was dead last in college football, yet Snyder still was able to get them to a bowl game. This year they have a solid corps of skill players returning including QB Jesse Ertz who won last year’s starting job but was injured on the 2nd play of season and sat the entire year. The offensive line is young but if they play at least average, the offense should be very good. The defense had their worst year since Snyder took over (second stint) allowing 31 PPG and we expect them to improve drastically on that side of the ball as injuries really took a toll last season. The schedule is tough as they play @ Stanford to open the season but the Cats should be 2-1 entering Big 12 play. They will need to win a road game or two in conference play to get to 6 wins but this is a program that has 15 wins away from home the last 5 seasons. KSU goes 6-6 in the regular season and pushes this OVER 5.5 wins.

Oklahoma – UNDER 10 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 11-1

OU is one of just five teams in Power 5 conferences that have their team total set at 10 wins or higher. The Sooners finished last year’s regular season with an 11-1 record but ran into Clemson in the post-season for the 2nd straight year. The Tigers walloped OU 37-17 in last year’s College Football “Final 4” after beating the Sooners 40-6 in a bowl game the previous year. Oklahoma will have a fantastic offense again this year with most of their key contributors returning including QB Baker Mayfield. The defense allowed fewer points per game (22) than they had since 2010 but they lose 6 of their top 10 tacklers. Their 2016 slate is very tough. They open the season with 3 “losable” games in their first 4 contests. Those are vs Houston, Ohio State, and TCU, teams that lost a combined 4 games last season. Their annual neutral site clash with Texas won’t be a gimme (Texas won last year). Add in road games @ West Virginia and @ Texas Tech and we see Oklahoma losing at least 2 games this season and the probability of 3 is pretty high. Bob Stoops seems to have more success when not much is expected of his teams. When they come into the season very highly ranked, they often underperform. OU will be a top 5 team entering this season. The margin is very slim for OU as they can only afford 2 losses for a push and 3 is a loss with the total set at 10. Slight lean to the UNDER

Oklahoma State – OVER 8.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 10-2

Last year OSU had their win total set at 7 and then went on to win 10 regular season games. This year it’s been bumped up to 8.5 and we still like the OVER. This year’s team should be better than last year’s and we think the Cowboys get to 9 or 10 wins in 2016. This team should have one of the top offenses in college football. They return nearly everyone from last year when they averaged 40 PPG on 480 yards per game. QB Mason Rudolph was highly recruited out of high school and had a very solid 2015 with almost 3,800 yards passing and 21 TD’s. His offensive line will be one of the best in the nation with all 5 starters returning having combined for over 100 career starts. The defense brings back their top 4 tacklers and 7 starters. The OSU defense has been pretty average for awhile now allowing over 400 YPG in 5 of their last 6 years but when you’re offense is putting up 40, you don’t need to be great. The schedule gives them 7 home games with winnable road games @ Kansas and @ KSU. Their games @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma, and @ TCU will be tough bug they should be favored in every other game. If they can pull one upset in those 3 tough roadies, we say they get to 10 wins for sure. The Cowboys should have added motivation heading into the year after starting the season 10-0 last year before losing their last 3 games to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss. They come into this year with a chip on their shoulder and double digit wins looks doable.

Texas – OVER 6.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 5-7

Last year the Horns have now had back to back sub .500 records going 6-7 in 2014 and 5-7 last year. Before 2014, their last sub .500 record was back in 1997. This will now be Charlie Strong’s 3rd season at the helm and we think this is his best team thus far. Texas is always loaded with talent and now the Horns will be an up tempo offense under new coordinator Sterlin Gilbert who came over from Tulsa. Gilbert led a Bowling Green offense to nearly 500 YPG two years ago improving the Falcons offense by nearly 175 YPG from the previous year. Last year he helped Tulsa put up 537 YPG which was a 50 YPG improvement from the previous season. Gilbert will have a ton of talent to work with at RB, WR, and on the offensive line. His key is to find a decent QB. Last year’s signal callers, Swoopes and Heard, both return but neither was consistent through the air. The Texas passing game ranked 4th worst in the nation among Power 5 conferences last year. True Frosh Shane Buechele was an early enrollee in January and looked very good in the spring so don’t count him out. The Texas defense struggled last year but head coach Charlie Strong is a very solid defensive mind so we look for them to be much better. The conference schedule lays out well with the Horns getting Big 12 heavyweights TCU & Baylor at home and a neutral game with Oklahoma. Road games @ Kansas, @ Kansas State, and @ Texas Tech are all winnable. We like the Horns to get to at least 7 wins this season.

TCU – UNDER 8.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 10-2

TCU simply lost too many top notch players to not take a decent step back in 2016. The offense obviously fueled this team over the last 2 seasons as they average 46 & 42 PPG respectively. The Frogs must replace 67% of their total yardage from last year including their QB Boykin, top RB Green and top WR Doctson. Not to mention the offensive line that returns only one starter and comes in as one of the most inexperienced in the Big 12. Texas A&M QB transfer Kenny Hill will most likely get the nod and while he is very talented, he seems to be a bit of a head case. Hill was an early Heisman candidate for the Aggies in 2014 but lost his starting job and fell out of favor with the coaching staff. The defense does return 8 starters but they weren’t great last year allowing nearly 400 YPG. While this team won 10 games last regular season, half of those wins were down to the wire affairs with winning margins of 6, 3, 7, 6, and 7 points. If one or two of those games goes the other way, we’re looking at an 8 or 9 win team last year. This year’s team is not on the same level as that team so we don’t see them getting to 9 wins. Looking at their schedule the Frogs have 7 “losable” games in our opinion and they can only afford to lose 3 of those in order to top this total. We lean UNDER for TCU this season.

Texas Tech – UNDER 7 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 7-5

It’s hard for us to even look OVER the number here with a defense that was as bad as Tech’s. While their offense was very potent last season, they literally couldn’t stop anybody. They allowed 47 PPG in Big 12 play and for the season teams gashed them for 280 YPG on the GROUND! This team averaged a ridiculous 60 PPG at home yet still only won 4 of their 6 games as a host. That tells you how bad their defense was. In order for this team to win 8 games, they’ll have to continue to put up mind blowing offensive numbers. That could be a bit tougher this year after losing their top RB Washington (1,500 yards rushing), their top WR Grant (1,200 yards receiving), and most of their offensive line. They will have their QB Mahomes back who had a great season but he can’t do it all by himself. The Red Raiders should win their two non-conference home games but their trip to Arizona State will be very difficult. We see them being favored in less than half of their Big 12 games this year. This is a team that scored 50+ points and LOST on two occasions last year. Unless their defense improves drastically this season, we just can’t see Texas Tech getting to 9 wins. We’ll lean to the UNDER here.

West Virginia – UNDER 6.5 Wins

Last Year’s Regular Season Record – 7-5

We like WVU to be a surprise team in the Big 12 this year. Last year they finished with a 7-5 record however much of that was due to a brutal schedule. Three of their five losses were @ TCU, @ Baylor, and @ Oklahoma, all arguably top 5 and at worst top 10 teams. Not only that, those three losses all came in a four week span which also saw them lose to Oklahoma State. That four week run saw the Mountaineers lose all 4 of their games to teams that finished with a combined 42-10 record with three of those games coming on the road! This year the schedule maker has been kind to WVU as they host the “Big 3” (Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor) and only play 4 true road games. The offense is loaded after scoring 34 PPG on 480 YPG last year. QB Skyler Howard is back and he operates behind a very good and experienced offensive line. His top targets remain and RB Shell is more than capable of putting up big numbers. The defense was actually #2 in the Big 12 in conference play allowing 412 YPG. While they lose 7 starters defensively, they still have players on that side of the ball that have seen a lot of playing time. In fact, all 11 starters coming out of spring ball are slated to be upper classmen. West Virginia gets to 7 wins and they are definitely good enough to pull an upset or two getting them closer to 10.