Big 12 Betting Preview: Second-tier Teams Have Value
By Ben Burns.
With all the commotion over the expansion and contraction, it’s easy to overlook just how good the Big 12 could be this year. You guys can bet the mighty SEC with its inflated lines; we’ll take the deeper, undervalued Big 12.
The betting value in the Big 12 isn’t with the top teams. Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska are each considered to have BCS-bowl potential. We’d like to see some improvement from the Cornhuskers’ quarterback play before we’ll put them in the same class as the Sooners and Longhorns. But those three powers are receiving enough hype that it’ll be tough to squeeze a loose line out of oddsmakers.
The second tier of Big 12 teams, however, should provide plenty of value. Teams like Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Texas Tech and even lowly Colorado have an abundance of returning talent, including proven quarterbacks, but aren’t popping up in preseason rankings.
Even the teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference—Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas—could produce positive ATS results. The amount of negative publicity those four teams are receiving in the preseason will make them big underdogs, too big in some cases.
In its last season before being reduced to 10 teams, the Big 12 is as strong as ever. In fact, when it comes to betting value, the Big 12 may have more than any other conference.
Big 12 odds and ends
(ATS records from last three seasons)
Oklahoma Sooners
ATS: 21-17-1 (Home: 12-5. Away: 7-10)
Thing to remember: The Sooners entered last season with an extremely inexperienced offensive line. It forced offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson to gear down the pace. Now, OU’s line has 42 starts under its belt. And, with quarterback Landry Jones more comfortable running the Sooner hurry-up offense, look for Oklahoma to rev things back up this year.
When you throw in that the Sooners return just five defensive starters and have major concerns at both cornerback spots, you can expect a season full of shootouts in Norman.
Playing at a similar pace in 2008, OU went over the total in 11 of 13 games.
Texas Longhorns
ATS: 20-18-2 (Home: 10-9. Away: 7-6-1)
Thing to remember: Don’t be surprised if teams have some success running the ball against the Longhorns. Texas was already thin at defensive tackle, before redshirt freshman Derek Johnson elected to transfer this summer. Now, coaches have to shuffle the defensive front and move ends inside.
Texas A&M Aggies
ATS: 15-22 (Home: 10-10. Away: 5-9)
Thing to remember: Two sophomores and a freshman are projected to start on the Aggie offensive line. That’s never a good sign.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
ATS: 18-17 (Home: 9-7. Away: 8-6)
Thing to remember: Tommy Tuberville’s track record suggests we won’t see a huge season from the Red Raiders. He went 5-5 straight up and 4-6 ATS in his first year at Ole Miss and the Tigers went 5-6 straight up and 4-6 ATS in his first year at Auburn.
Baylor Bears
ATS: 17-16 (Home: 7-9. Away: 9-7)
Thing to remember: Coach Art Briles saw drastic improvement in his third year at Houston. Running Briles’ wide-open passing attack, the Cougars averaged eight more points a game in his third season. The return of dynamic quarterback Robert Griffin, who tore his ACL in Week 3 last season, will also help.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
ATS: 20-15-1 (Home: 10-7-1. Away: 9-6)
Thing to remember: After consecutive 9-4 seasons, a major drop off is expected for the Cowboys, who return a league-low eight starters.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
ATS: 19-20 (Home: 9-13. Away: 7-7)
Thing to remember: No matter how good the returning parts are, losing a player the caliber of Ndamukong Suh will be difficult to replace. Senior quarterback Zac Lee is the projected starter, but he didn’t do enough last year or in the spring to earn the coaching staff’s full confidence.
Missouri Tigers
ATS: 19-19 (Home: 5-10. Away: 9-3)
Thing to remember: For a team returning 16 starters including a star quarterback in Blaine Gabbert and leading rusher in Derrick Washington, the Tigers aren’t getting much love from the media. Under coach Gary Pinkel, Mizzou is 20-13 ATS against non-conference competition.
Colorado Buffalos
ATS: 17-19 (Home: 9-8. Away: 6-10)
Thing to remember: Dan Hawkins has a league-high 17 returning starters to help cool off his hot seat.
Kansas Jayhawks
ATS: 21-14 (Home: 10-7. Away: 7-6)
Thing to remember: Turner Gill, Kansas’ new head coach, was an instant impact at Buffalo. Even though the Bulls went 2-10 straight up in his first season, they exceeded oddsmakers’ expectations and posted a 7-4-1 ATS mark. During his four years at Buffalo, the Bulls went 27-19-2 ATS.
But rising to the top of the MAC isn’t quite as difficult as mastering the Big 12.
Kansas State Wildcats
ATS: 16-16 (Home: 7-8. Away: 7-8
Thing to remember: Coach Bill Snyder is 35-22-1 ATS against the Big 12 since 2000, the best mark of any coach in the league.
Iowa State Cyclones
ATS: 19-15 (Home: 9-7. Away: 9-7)
Thing to remember: The Cyclones have been a great bet when stepping out of conference. In the last 10 seasons, Iowa State is 21-12-1 ATS in non-conference play.
Big XII reloads in 2010 after loss of mega-stars
By: Steve Makinen
The Big 12 Conference has not only gotten used to its share of success on the college football gridiron, it has become a fixture at the top of the NFL draft board each spring. Such was the case again this offseason, as the league was raided by the pro teams for star after star, round after round. So while you won’t be seeing names like Ndamukong Suh, Sam Bradford, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung, and Colt McCoy again this fall on their respective campuses, surely a new set of studs are ready to emerge. There are already candidates. In the North Division, Nebraska is loaded on both sides of the ball and goes into the season as the favorite to fill that spot in the league title game. Missouri could be a threat though with Blaine Gibbert under center. Iowa State, which beat Nebraska a year ago, seems to be on the way up, and Colorado hopes to be, boasting a wealth of returning experience. The biggest question marks are in the state of Kansas, where the Jayhawks begin a new under Turner Gill, and the Wildcats replace tons of production. In the South, the title should come down to Oklahoma and Texas once again, despite the loss of their star quarterbacks. Speaking of which, how about studs Robert Griffin of Baylor, Jerrod Johnson of Texas A&M, and Taylor Potts of Texas Tech? All three teams should score plenty of points, but the one who stops opponents best will be the biggest threat to the “Big two”. Oklahoma State has gotten used to success, but this could be a rebuilding year in Stillwater.
2010 Predicted Finish (Sportsbook.com Odds to win conference)
North Division
1. Nebraska (+200)
2. Missouri (+1200)
3. Colorado (+5000)
4. Iowa State (+8000)
5. Kansas (+4000)
6. Kansas State (+2000)
South Division
1. Oklahoma (+125)
2. Texas (+200)
3. Texas A&M (+1800)
4. Texas Tech (+1500)
5. Baylor (+6000)
6. Oklahoma State (+4000)
NORTH DIVISION
COLORADO BUFFALOS
Head Coach: Dan Hawkins, 5th year (16-33 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.6 (#93 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -4.5 (#85 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 37 (#59 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - vs. Colorado St (Denver, CO)
9/11 - at California
9/18 - HAWAII
10/2 - GEORGIA
10/9 - at Missouri
10/16 - BAYLOR
10/23 - TEXAS TECH
10/30 - at Oklahoma
11/6 - at Kansas
11/13 - IOWA ST
11/20 - KANSAS ST
11/26 - at Nebraska
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 17-19 (47%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-11 (42%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 6-5 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-3, 11-14 (44%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 39.33 (29)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.3 (92) - 28.8 (88)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 314.2 (104) - 363.0 (57)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.42 (115) - 5.41 (61)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.78 (116) - 4.13 (72)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.74 (108) - 7.19 (71)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (98)
2010 OUTLOOK
It’s pretty safe to say that this is probably a lame-duck coaching year for Dan Hawkins and his staff, unless they pull off some kind of miracle—and by that we mean win the Big 12 championship…Once again it’s another season of “Who’s playing quarterback?” It’s between Hawkins’ son, Cody, who threw for 1,277 yards, 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and Tyler Hansen (129 of 231 pass attempts, 1,440 yards, eight touchdowns, seven interceptions), who took over the starting job from Hawkins midway through last season and was expected to be the starter coming into spring drills. The problem is, Colorado is no further along offensively with either quarterback. The Buffaloes finished last in the Big 12 in total offense in each of the past two seasons. Ironically, wide receiver is expected to be one of the team’s biggest strengths and the entire starting line returns…On defense, seven total starts return, including thee on the line, and three of the four starters on the line return, two of the three starters at linebacker have graduated, and three in the backfield. Hawkins likes to note that Colorado’s last three losses came by a total of 18 points, meaning that one mistake per game—a missed assignment, a missed block, a turnover—was the difference between winning and losing. If that’s true, there will be less mistakes on defense than on offense, which should help Colorado’s bottom line…The schedule isn’t nearly as brutal as it has been in the past, and this team has both talent and experience compared to recent years. Expect an improved Colorado team with bowl potential.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* COLORADO hasn't won a true road game since 10/27/07 & is 4-8 ATS in that span. The Average Score was COLORADO 19.3, OPPONENT 34.8
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Head Coach: Paul Rhoads, 2nd year (7-6 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -1.3 (#78 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.1 (#75 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - N ILLINOIS
9/11 - at Iowa
9/18 - vs. Kansas St (Kansas City, MO)
9/25 - N IOWA
10/2 - TEXAS TECH
10/9 - UTAH
10/16 - at Oklahoma
10/23 - at Texas
10/30 - KANSAS
11/6 - NEBRASKA
11/13 - at Colorado
11/20 - MISSOURI
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 12-25 (32%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 19-15 (56%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-8 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-1, 5-4 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 14-11 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 34.92 (62)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.5 (103) - 21.8 (34)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 364.7 (73) - 415.8 (99)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.29 (75) - 5.82 (88)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.54 (38) - 4.35 (84)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.31 (100) - 7.49 (85)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)
2010 OUTLOOK
In his first meeting with his new team in January of 2009, Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads told his Cyclones they were going to win a bowl game, despite the fact they lost 10 games in ‘08 and hadn’t been to a bowl game since ‘05. Damned if he didn’t pull it off. The Cyclones went 7-6, including a 14-13 win over Minnesota in the Insight Bowl. Iowa State tied Washington as the most-improved BCS team nationally with five more wins than the previous season. The seminal moment of the season was a 9-7 victory at Nebraska, accomplished despite the fact Iowa State was without starting quarterback Austen Arnaud and running back Alexander Robinson…We’ll take a wild guess that with Arnaud and Robinson both returning, the Cyclones will be even better. But that’s all relative, of course. Even with those two, Iowa State was dead last in the Big 12 in scoring at 20.5 PPG. Four lineman return from a unit that gave up just 16 quarterback sacks, good for third in the conference and 21st nationally…ISU made huge strides on defense under coordinator Wally Burnham. The Cyclones tied for the second-best defensive performance nationally in the red zone, and allowed 21.8 PPG, ranking 34th nationally. Last year’s total was a seismic improvement over 2008, when the Cyclones ranked 110th. Only four starters return on defense…Sorry guys, but your success last year set the precedent. Anything less than a repeat of a winning record and a bowl bid would be considered unsuccessful. It will be tough, of course. Eight bowl teams from last season are on the slate, including a four-week stretch in which Iowa State faces Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma and Texas.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* IOWA ST is on a 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) skid on the road vs. excellent rushing defenses - allowing <=90 RYPG . The Average Score was IOWA ST 14.5, OPPONENT 51.6
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Head Coach: Turner Gill, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 3-8 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-2-5 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.0 (#65 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.5 (#55 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 42 (#45 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - N DAKOTA ST
9/11 - GEORGIA TECH
9/17 - at Southern Miss
9/25 - NEW MEXICO ST
10/2 - at Baylor
10/16 - KANSAS ST
10/23 - TEXAS A&M
10/30 - at Iowa St
11/6 - COLORADO
11/13 - at Nebraska
11/20 - OKLAHOMA ST
11/27 - vs. Missouri (Kansas City, MO)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 25-13 (66%)
Overall ATS: 3-8, 21-14 (60%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 11-7 (61%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-7, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 15-7 (68%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-4, 6-7 (46%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 39.5 (28)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.4 (42) - 28.4 (85)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 422.4 (25) - 383.3 (76)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.73 (48) - 5.50 (67)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.55 (96) - 4.02 (68)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.36 (50) - 6.95 (53)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)
2010 OUTLOOK
It’s a new era at Kansas, as former Nebraska star turned Buffalo coach Turner Gill is now calling the shots in Lawrence. Mark Mangino was forced out in a power play after allegations of his verbal abuse of players came to light, so this will certainly be a complete change of pace for the Jayhawks. At least Gill has surrounded himself with experience. Both coordinators are former head coaches—Chuck Long (OC) and Carl Torbush (DC)…Quarterback Todd Reesing is gone, as is wide receiver Dez Briscoe. That pretty much sums up the state of the offense which, despite all the craziness, was still the 25th-best attack unit in the country. The passing attack was seventh-best. Reesing, who started 38 consecutive games for Kansas, was a big reason for that. The only player on this year’s roster to have played quarterback in a game for the Jayhawks is sophomore Kale Pick, who will be among a list of players competing for the starting spot. Whoever eventually mans the leading roles at QB and running back, Kansas returns all five of its regular starters on the line…While Kansas lost four dependable defensive players, the cupboard is not bare. Seven starters return to a unit that allowed an uncharacteristic 35.9 PPG in Big 12 play…Kansas might surprise some people. Look at the schedule—it plays to the Jayhawks’ advantage. A 6-1 start is possible, but it’s hard to forget Kansas started 5-0 last year before closing with seven straight losses.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* KANSAS is on a 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) skid on the road in weeks 10 through 13 . The Average Score was KANSAS 22.1, OPPONENT 37.7
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Head Coach: Bill Snyder, 2nd year (142-74-1 SU)
2009 Record: 6-6 SU, 7-4 ATS
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -0.3 (#72 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -1.1 (#73 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - UCLA
9/11 - MISSOURI ST
9/18 - vs. Iowa St (Kansas City, MO)
9/25 - UCF
10/7 - NEBRASKA
10/16 - at Kansas
10/23 - at Baylor
10/30 - OKLAHOMA ST
11/6 - TEXAS
11/13 - at Missouri
11/20 - at Colorado
11/27 - at North Texas
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-6, 16-20 (44%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 16-17 (48%)
at Home ATS: 4-1, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 5-9 (36%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-3, 10-8 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35 (60)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.0 (87) - 23.3 (46)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 349.3 (80) - 339.9 (39)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.23 (81) - 5.39 (59)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.28 (58) - 3.49 (29)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.82 (81) - 7.12 (62)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (23)
2010 OUTLOOK
Not a bad return to coaching for Bill Snyder, who came out of retirement after the failed Ron Prince experiment and led the Wildcats to a 6-6 mark. Kansas State was right in it until the end, losing the North Division title to Nebraska on the final day of the regular season…Nothing was solved in spring ball in terms of who the quarterback will be to replace Grant Gregory. A year ago, Collin Klein lost out in the battle to be the starter. Carson Coffman started the opener but eventually gave way to Gregory. With those two taking snaps, Klein was moved to wide receiver. Now the 6-3, 235-pound sophomore is back trying to again win the job, one of four vying for the spot. KSU’s fortunes will rise and fall with Doak Walker and All-America candidate, running back Daniel Thomas, who finished 2009 as the Big 12’s leader in rushing yards, attempts and yards per game…Defensively, the Wildcats showed slight improvement from the 2008 season to the ‘09 campaign. They went from 10th in the conference to seventh in points allowed, 11th to fifth in rushing yards per game and eighth to seventh in pass defense. With two key starters from the line gone, as well as two linebackers, the secondary, returning virtually intact, will be the strength…The Wildcats did themselves no favors with this year’s schedule, and it’s not fun to break in a new quarterback, either, when three of your first five games are UCLA, Iowa State and Nebraska. Snyder didn’t come back to churn out .500 records, but it’s looking a lot like that’s what the 2010 campaign is shaping up to be.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* KANSAS ST is on a 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) run at home vs. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) . The Average Score was KANSAS ST 33, OPPONENT 18.2
MISSOURI TIGERS
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel, 10th year (67-46 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS
Offense: Pro-Style - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.6 (#50 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.2 (#49 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - vs. Illinois (St Louis, MO)
9/11 - MCNEESE ST
9/18 - SAN DIEGO ST
9/25 - MIAMI OHIO
10/9 - COLORADO
10/16 - at Texas A&M
10/23 - OKLAHOMA
10/30 - at Nebraska
11/6 - at Texas Tech
11/13 - KANSAS ST
11/20 - at Iowa St
11/27 - vs. Kansas (Kansas City, MO)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 30-11 (73%)
Overall ATS: 5-8, 20-19 (51%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 14-9 (61%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 11-15 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-5, 16-13 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-3, 3-6 (33%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38 (40)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.0 (49) - 25.4 (59)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 412.5 (32) - 370.1 (64)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.89 (40) - 5.13 (41)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.72 (83) - 3.33 (18)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.95 (24) - 6.88 (50)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)
2010 OUTLOOK
It was going to be difficult to replace Chase Daniel and the rest of the high-flying offense that put 22 wins on the board in 2007 and ‘08. Yet, somehow, head coach Gary Pinkel made it all work. It was tough. The Tigers got off to a 0-3 start in the Big 12, but quarterback Blaine Gabbert came into his own and Missouri finished 8-5 after a bowl game loss to Navy…With Gabbert back, the offense should be potent and he can spread the wealth. Last year, he completed 226 of 445 pass attempts for 3,593 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Finding a replacement for Danario Alexander, who led the nation in receiving yards, will be a challenge. The Tigers want a more a productive running game and the line is expected to be fairly solid…On defense, the Tigers have a terrific end duo in sophomore Aldon Smith and junior Jacquies Smith but replacing the playmaking and leadership of linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, a three-time All-Big 12 selection, will go a long way in determining how well the defense performs. The secondary gave up 251.5 yards per game in the air, making the Tigers 11th out of 12 teams in the conference in pass defense but should be much improved…Pinkel’s program is averaging nine wins per year since 2005 and the Tigers have to be considered a darkhorse in the Big 12 North. Unfortunately, they get all of their toughest opponents except one—Oklahoma—on the road, including a key division game against Nebraska.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, MISSOURI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) vs. teams with a winning record. The Average Score was MISSOURI 29.6, OPPONENT 29.9
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
Head Coach: Bo Pelini, 3rd year (20-8 SU)
2009 Record: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +14.7 (#12 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +18.2 (#8 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 58 (#5 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - W KENTUCKY
9/11 - IDAHO
9/18 - at Washington
9/25 - S DAKOTA ST
10/7 - at Kansas St
10/16 - TEXAS
10/23 - at Oklahoma St
10/30 - MISSOURI
11/6 - at Iowa St
11/13 - KANSAS
11/20 - at Texas A&M
11/26 - COLORADO
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-4, 24-15 (62%)
Overall ATS: 9-5, 19-20 (49%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 9-13 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-5, 10-15 (40%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-5, 13-14 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 6-6 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.64 (19)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.1 (75) - 10.4 (1)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 322.8 (99) - 271.3 (7)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.16 (87) - 3.98 (3)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.02 (71) - 2.78 (4)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.76 (85) - 5.11 (1)
Turnover Differential: +0.4 (32)
2010 OUTLOOK
Nebraska is back, baby. When last we left the Cornhuskers, they were thumping Arizona in the Holiday Bowl by 33 points which, all things considered, was a pretty impressive performance. Why? Because Nebraska could have gone into the game feeling—rightfully—ripped off that it wasn’t Big 12 champions and playing in a BCS game. Only a generous timekeeper kept the Cornhuskers from taking a 12-10 win against Texas and turning it into a 13-12 loss…Can it get any better? Nebraska returns four starters on the line, in addition to starters at quarterback, fullback, I-back, both wide receiver spots, and a pair of veteran tight ends. Zac Lee is back under center after starting 12 games and senior Roy Helu Jr. ranked among the Big 12’s best running backs for the second straight year and earned second-team all-league honors. The Cornhuskers did pedestrian work overall on offense—11th in total offense in the conference, 11th in passing offense, sixth in rushing offense, and eighth in scoring offense at 25.1 PPG, but should be more prolific...Nebraska lost five senior starters from last year’s Blackshirt unit, including All-American Ndamukong Suh, but despite those losses, Nebraska expects to again field one of the nation’s top stop units with the return of nine players who started at least five games last season. Nebraska led the Big 12 in scoring defense at just 10.4 PPG…This is going to be a season where the Cornhuskers should return to national prominence and, perhaps, play for the national title. They will have a tough road getting there. If the offense can come around and show some explosiveness then you’re looking at a national championship contender.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* NEBRASKA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) at home in weeks 5 through 9 since '07. The Average Score was NEBRASKA 19.9, OPPONENT 30.6
SOUTH DIVISION
BAYLOR BEARS
Head Coach: Arthur Briles, 3rd year (8-16 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.5 (#92 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -4.0 (#84 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 37 (#59 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - SAM HOUSTON ST
9/11 - BUFFALO
9/18 - at TCU
9/25 - at Rice
10/2 - KANSAS
10/9 - vs. Texas Tech (Dallas, Texas)
10/16 - at Colorado
10/23 - KANSAS ST
10/30 - at Texas
11/6 - at Oklahoma St
11/13 - TEXAS A&M
11/20 - OKLAHOMA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 11-25 (31%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 18-16 (53%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-9 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-2, 10-2 (83%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 7-14 (33%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.67 (12)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.8 (101) - 27.3 (72)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 342.5 (85) - 405.5 (94)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.30 (73) - 5.36 (55)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.51 (100) - 4.50 (91)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.74 (86) - 6.33 (31)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)
2010 OUTLOOK
Every year we expect Baylor to turn the corner toward a .500 record and a bowl bid, and every year we get disappointed. Now, to be fair, last year was plagued by injury, and we’re cautiously optimistic that good things are indeed about to come, especially with several returning starters and another strong recruiting year (rated 39th nationally by Rivals.com)…Robert Griffin III, affectionately known around Waco as RG3, burst on the national scene in ‘08, throwing for 19 touchdowns against just three interceptions, and rushing for 61.3 yards a game. Then he blew out a knee in the third game of the ‘09 season and was done. Now back, head coach Art Briles knows he has great depth. Problem is, Baylor lost its top wideouts and its starting tight end, so whom to throw to could be an issue…There’s much work to be done on defense. This is a unit that gave up 30 or more points six times. You simply can’t expect to give up that many points per game and still contend, even with a healthy Griffin presumably piling up points with the offense. Briles will have to revamp his front four in order to have a successful season…Here we go again, hoping against hope and rooting for this perennially downtrodden program to inch close to .500 or, surprise, surprise, earn a bowl bid. Let’s start by assuming Griffin returns to form after rehabbing his knee. Frankly, there’s no reason why Baylor shouldn’t be 5-3 through its first eight games. That leaves the Bears needing a 1-3 mark in their final four games, difficult ones, to secure a bowl bid.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BAYLOR is on a 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) skid at home vs. excellent defensive teams - allowing <=4.25 YPP . The Average Score was BAYLOR 10.3, OPPONENT 39.2
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Head Coach: Bob Stoops, 12th year (117-29 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +16.5 (#7 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +18.8 (#7 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 60 (#4 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - UTAH ST
9/11 - FLORIDA ST
9/18 - AIR FORCE
9/25 - at Cincinnati
10/2 - vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas)
10/16 - IOWA ST
10/23 - at Missouri
10/30 - COLORADO
11/6 - at Texas A&M
11/13 - TEXAS TECH
11/20 - at Baylor
11/27 - at Oklahoma St
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 31-10 (76%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 22-17 (56%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 13-5 (72%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-5, 9-12 (43%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 13-12 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-7, 21-17 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 0-0 (#DIV/0!)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.54 (3)
Points Scored - Allowed: 31.1 (29) - 14.5 (7)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 423.8 (24) - 272.6 (8)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.49 (63) - 4.09 (5)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.61 (92) - 2.80 (5)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.24 (54) - 5.38 (7)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)
2010 OUTLOOK
Oklahoma is still Oklahoma. Let’s not forget that. A devastating season of injuries took place, and an 8-5 record and a trip to the Sun Bowl—where the Sooners beat Stanford, 31-27—is most certainly not what fans have come to expect and enjoy under head coach Bob Stoops. But let’s keep it all in perspective. This was a team that lost a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback in the first game of the season (Sam Bradford), an All-America tight end (Jermaine Gresham), and a variety of players on defense, yet still managed to win eight times. And, of the five losses, four came by a total of 12 points…Of the 11 starters on offense in the season opener, only five made it to the finale. Quarterback Landry Jones responded well for a freshman. He threw for 3,198 yards and 26 touchdowns, and unless the sophomore jinx strikes he’ll be even better. He has a lot of help in junior wide receiver Ryan Broyles, who led the Sooners with 86 receptions for 1,120 yards and 15 touchdowns and senior running back DeMarco Murray, another dangerous option. The line could use some patch jobs, but it will be solid by the time Big 12 play rolls around…There were big losses from what was a good stop unit, which finished second in the Big 12 in scoring and third in total defense. The concerns are more up front than in the secondary...The schedule is daunting, not difficult. Florida State and Air Force come to Norman, and Oklahoma travels to Cincinnati. As always, the game against Texas should determine the South Division champion. Barring all those injuries, the Sooners are a conference title contender again.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OKLAHOMA is on a 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) skid revenging a blowout loss against opponent by 21 points or more . The Average Score was OKLAHOMA 21.1, OPPONENT 36.8
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Head Coach: Mike Gundy, 6th year (36-27 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +6.7 (#38 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.3 (#38 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#35 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - WASHINGTON ST
9/11 - TROY
9/18 - TULSA
9/30 - TEXAS A&M
10/8 - at LA Lafayette
10/16 - at Texas Tech
10/23 - NEBRASKA
10/30 - at Kansas St
11/6 - BAYLOR
11/13 - at Texas
11/20 - at Kansas
11/27 - OKLAHOMA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 25-14 (64%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 20-16 (56%)
at Home ATS: 4-4, 11-8 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-2, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 16-5 (76%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-3, 3-11 (21%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 39.62 (27)
Points Scored - Allowed: 28.4 (56) - 21.7 (31)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 367.2 (70) - 332.4 (30)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.36 (71) - 4.70 (16)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.40 (51) - 3.00 (12)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.94 (73) - 6.10 (21)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)
2010 OUTLOOK
Half-empty or half-full? It’s hard to look at the Oklahoma State season and decide whether or not it was successful. On one hand, the Cowboys went 9-4 and head coach Mike Gundy joined his college coach—Pat Jones—as the only Cowboy head coaches to take the school to four bowl games. On the other hand, the Cowboys had a chance to go to a BCS game if they won their regular-season finale against a depleted Oklahoma team. Instead, they laid an egg and lost, 27-0. Now Gundy is looking at a heavy rebuilding job…Quarterback Zac Robinson, a three-year starter, is gone. So is tackle Russell Okung, the sixth player selected in the NFL Draft. Wide receiver Dez Bryant, who was suspended for the second half of 2009, declared himself eligible for the draft and was also a first-round pick. Ugh. This offense is going to have trouble, especially early. Brandon Weeden, a 26-year-old junior, is the new starter at quarterback. Oklahoma State must replace four starters on the o-line…The defense? In a word—depleted. The Oklahoma State pre-spring depth chart features just two starters from the pre-Cotton Bowl depth chart on the defensive side of the ball. And this was a solid stop unit last year, too, as the Cowboys finished fourth in both scoring and overall defense in the Big 12 Conference. Oklahoma State allowed 21.7 points per game, compared to 28.1 in 2008…If the Cowboys have a lot to work on, at least they’ll enjoy it from the comforts of home. All four September games are at home, and its possible they could start 5-0. Beyond that, all bets are off.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OKLAHOMA ST is on a 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) skid on the road vs. poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 RYPG . The Average Score was OKLAHOMA ST 18.8, OPPONENT 32.3
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Head Coach: Mack Brown, 13th year (128-27 SU)
2009 Record: 13-1 SU, 5-8-1 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +22.6 (#4 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +26.3 (#1 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 61 (#3 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Rice
9/11 - WYOMING
9/18 - at Texas Tech
9/25 - UCLA
10/2 - vs. Oklahoma (Dallas, Texas)
10/16 - at Nebraska
10/23 - IOWA ST
10/30 - BAYLOR
11/6 - at Kansas St
11/13 - OKLAHOMA ST
11/20 - FLA ATLANTIC
11/25 - TEXAS A&M
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 13-1, 35-5 (88%)
Overall ATS: 5-8, 21-18 (54%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 10-9 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 11-9 (55%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-7, 17-17 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-1, 4-1 (80%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.14 (8)
Points Scored - Allowed: 39.3 (3) - 16.7 (12)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 421.2 (28) - 251.9 (3)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.60 (60) - 3.84 (1)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.03 (69) - 2.21 (1)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.09 (64) - 5.47 (8)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (15)
2010 OUTLOOK
The burning image of the 2009 football season in Austin is that of quarterback Colt McCoy going down to injury at the Rose Bowl in the national championship game against Alabama. College football’s winningest quarterback never came back, and the Longhorns lost to the Crimson Tide, 37-21. The burning image of the upcoming football season is also that of a quarterback, Garrett Gilbert, who came on for McCoy and was terrific after a rough start versus the Crimson Tide…The offense lost McCoy, his favorite target—Jordan Shipley—and the anchor of the line—center Chris Hall. Still, this might be an easier transition than some might think. Gilbert was fabulous against Alabama in the second half (10-for-13 passing, 165 yards). There’s no reason to think he can’t step up and do it for an entire season. That said, the run game—or lack thereof—could place pressure on him to deliver. Texas hasn’t had a stud running back since Ricky Williams. The line, as usual, is big and beefy…on defense, four stud players have moved on and are gone. That’s a lot to replace if the Longhorns have any designs on repeating as Big 12 champs with a defense that last year allowed only 72.4 yards rushing per game, tops in the nation…So what do we make of this version of the Longhorns? Let’s make the assumption that Gilbert plays well. If Texas can develop a running game, then this is a national championship contender. If those two things happen, book a trip to the Big 12 title game, especially with the schedule and the way it breaks.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TEXAS is on a 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) run vs. teams with a losing record . The Average Score was TEXAS 40.2, OPPONENT 16.6
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Head Coach: Mike Sherman, 3rd year (10-14 SU)
2009 Record: 6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -0.7 (#75 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.7 (#60 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#48 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - SF AUSTIN
9/11 - LOUISIANA TECH
9/18 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
9/30 - at Oklahoma St
10/9 - vs. Arkansas (Arlington, TX)
10/16 - MISSOURI
10/23 - at Kansas
10/30 - TEXAS TECH
11/6 - OKLAHOMA
11/13 - at Baylor
11/20 - NEBRASKA
11/25 - at Texas
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-7, 17-21 (45%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 15-21 (42%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 10-9 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-5, 5-12 (29%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 8-7 (53%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 7-14 (33%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.54 (13)
Points Scored - Allowed: 32.8 (19) - 33.5 (105)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 465.8 (6) - 426.3 (104)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.75 (45) - 5.93 (92)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.40 (50) - 4.60 (94)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.19 (58) - 7.37 (81)
Turnover Differential: -0.1 (68)
2010 OUTLOOK
There was improvement last year in College Station, however small it might have been. The Aggies went from winning four games in 2008 to winning six in ‘09, earning a bowl bid but falling to Georgia in the Independence Bowl, 44-20. And therein lies the problem—44 points given up. And that was a good day. Texas A&M allowed games of 47, 49, 62, & 65 points. There’s no question the offense is going to get theirs. But the big question is how much is the defense going to give up?...The Aggies are going to put up video game-like numbers with the return of several players. The offense has the potential to be outstanding. Senior Jerrod Johnson, if he isn’t the best returning quarterback in the Big 12 then he’s certainly the most versatile with his running and passing skills. Johnson threw for 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He also rushed for 506 yards and eight scores. A&M boasts a terrific tandem of running backs and wide receivers as well, plus the line will see four returnees…Defense is the problem. The unit was, in a word, awful. It ranked last in the Big 12 in scoring (33.5 PPG) and last in total defense (426.3 YPG). With the retirement of veteran Joe Kines, head coach Mike Sherman hired Tim DeRuyter from Air Force to take over as coordinator. DeRuyter spent most of the spring teaching his players the ins and outs of his 3-4 schemes. Nine starters are back for this group…Can the Aggies continue their improvement under Sherman? A lot of this answer falls on his offense’s ability to outscore opponents.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TEXAS A&M is on a 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) skid as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was TEXAS A&M 16.9, OPPONENT 33.9
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +14.5 (#13 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +14.5 (#11 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 52 (#11 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 - SMU
9/11 - at New Mexico
9/18 - TEXAS
10/2 - at Iowa St
10/9 - vs. Baylor (Dallas, Texas)
10/16 - OKLAHOMA ST
10/23 - at Colorado
10/30 - at Texas A&M
11/6 - MISSOURI
11/13 - at Oklahoma
11/20 - WEBER ST
11/27 - HOUSTON
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 29-10 (74%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 18-16 (53%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 9-6 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-4, 13-12 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-1, 5-4 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 37.69 (41)
Points Scored - Allowed: 37.0 (7) - 22.5 (41)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 470.7 (5) - 352.0 (48)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.19 (21) - 4.83 (24)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.42 (104) - 3.42 (26)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.51 (43) - 6.29 (27)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (95)
2010 OUTLOOK
Wow, did that get ugly last year. The Red Raiders’ successful 9-4 season was nothing. Never happened. Not when you consider what took place just days before the Alamo Bowl against Michigan State (which Texas Tech won, by the way, 41-31). After mistreatment and insubordination claims, the university decided the best course of action for its football program was to terminate its relationship with head football coach Mike Leach…So here comes new head coach Tommy Tuberville—a great hiring, by the way, considering everything that went down surrounding the Leach situation—who says he plans on not only keeping, but refining, Leach’s high-octane offense. Tuberville wants to continue Texas Tech’s reputation as a pass-happy offense but he also wants a solid running game. He believes the best way to make sure both happen is to turn the Red Raiders’ offense into a fast break. The goal is to run 100 plays per game. Quarterback Taylor Potts led the Big 12 in passing at 312.0 yards per game and should be ready to go in the fall after offseason surgery. His top two wide receivers are both back…Unlike, say, Texas A&M, whose potent offense struggles to keep up with a sieve-like defense, Texas Tech’s defense is fairly good. It gave up 22.5 PPG, sixth in the Big 12. Still, Tuberville stresses defense and sixth isn’t quite good enough. So he went out and signed 18 players who play on the defensive side of the ball during the recruiting period to join six returning starters...As usual, the schedule in the Big 12 South is tough. With as much as this program has gone through, a bowl bid would make for a successful season.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TEXAS TECH is on a 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) skid as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was TEXAS TECH 21.2, OPPONENT 39