Big 12 Schedule Breakdown
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Oklahoma: OU’s non-conference slate consists of these three games: vs. UTEP, at Ohio State and vs. Tulane. The Sooners opened as eight-point road underdogs against the Buckeyes at The Westgate SuperBook on July 9. Oklahoma starts league play at Baylor in Week 4 and then gets its open date ahead of a home game vs. Iowa State There aren’t any back-to-back road assignments, but OU must travel to Dallas to face Texas on Oct. 14 before playing at Kansas State on Oct. 21. The Bedlam game against arch-rival Oklahoma State is usually in late November, but the Sooners go to Stillwater on Nov. 4 this year. Without a Big 12 Championship Game to pad the resume the first weekend of December, Oklahoma probably won’t have a shot at the College Football Playoff if it loses twice. However, if the Sooners are 11-1 with their only loss coming at Ohio State, they’ll be in great position to garner an invite to the CFP.
ATS Note: Since 2007, OU owns a 36-23 spread record as a home favorite.
Oklahoma State: Mike Gundy’s team has to play six road games this season, including a pair of consecutive non-conference contests after opening at home vs. Tulsa. Oklahoma State plays at South Alabama and at Pittsburgh after hosting the Golden Hurricane. The Jaguars won outright at Mississippi State as 28-point underdogs last year. Also, they hosted 19th-ranked San Diego State in Mobile and blasted the Aztecs 42-24 as 19-point home ‘dogs. When OSU plays at Pitt, the Panthers will be coming off a rivalry game at Penn State. They’ll also be seeking redemption for a 45-38 loss in Stillwater in 2016. One advantage of OSU’s schedule is getting most of its toughest Big 12 foes at home, including TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Kansas State On the flip side, the Cowboys have a second set of back-to-back road games at Texas and at West Virginia. If there’s a super-dangerous spot from a situational standpoint, it falls at Iowa State on Nov. 11. Why, you ask? Well, all OSU fans remember how a spot in the 2011 BCS Championship Game was flushed down the toilet in Ames, where the Cyclones rallied from a 24-7 second-half deficit to clip the Cowboys 37-31 in double overtime as 27.5-point home underdogs. Also, the trip to Jack Trice Stadium, where a fifth-ranked OSU squad barely escaped with a 35-31 victory two years ago, comes one week after hosting OU in the Bedlam showdown. Furthermore, the Cowboys will be getting on an airplane for the third Friday out of the previous four.
ATS Note: Since 2008, Oklahoma State has been a steady money maker, cashing tickets at a lucrative 66-46-3 clip. The Cowboys are 30-16-1 ATS in their last 47 games as home ‘chalk.’
TCU: TCU’s non-conference slate looks like this: vs. Jackson State, at Arkansas and vs. SMU. The Horned Frogs will be in revenge mode against the Razorbacks, who won 41-38 in Ft. Worth in a double-overtime affair last season. The Westgate opened TCU as a one-point road favorite at Arkansas. Gary Patterson’s team is at Oklahoma State in Week 4 and then gets its open date before hosting West Virginia. However, WVU also has two weeks to prep for TCU, so that’s a wash. There’s only one set of back-to-back road assignments at Oklahoma (11/11) and at Texas Tech (11/18). When TCU hosts Baylor in its regular-season finale, the game falls on Friday so at least the Frogs don’t have to travel on a short week of preparation.
ATS Note: TCU limped to an abysmal 3-10 spread record last year, including an atrocious 0-7 ATS mark at home. The Frogs went 0-6 ATS as home favorites. However, in 2014 and ’15, they compiled a 10-2 spread record in 12 home ‘chalk’ situations.
Texas: Texas hosts Maryland and San Jose State before heading West to play at Southern Cal in non-conference action to start the season. The open date comes next ahead of a Thursday game at Iowa State. This gives Tom Herman’s first team in Austin two extra days of rest and preparation for a home game against Kansas State. There’s one set of back-to-back road games at Baylor (10/28) and at TCU (11/4). The Longhorns host Texas Tech on a short week for a Friday game to close the regular season.
ATS Note: Texas is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. On the flip side, the Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road ‘dogs.
Kansas State: Kansas State has a pair of home layups in non-conference play vs. Central Arkansas and Charlotte before going to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt in Week 3. K-State gets its open date in Week 4 before hosting Baylor, while the Bears have to face Oklahoma in Waco when the Wildcats are resting. They do have one set of back-to-back road games but might be favored in both spots – at Kansas (11/28) and at Texas Tech (11/4). All 12 games will be played on Saturday and zero opponents get two weeks to prepare for K-State.
ATS Note: During Bill Snyder’s second tour of duty as head coach going back to 2009, Kansas State has posted an 11-5 spread record as a home underdog. Even better, the Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 such spots. They’ve been dynamite as road underdogs dating back to 2007, producing a 24-9 ATS ledger.
Baylor: The Matt Rhule Era in Waco starts with home games against Liberty and UTSA before a road game at Duke wraps up non-conference play. The Bears draw their open date on Oct. 7 with a trip to Stillwater on deck, but Oklahoma State also has that week off. Baylor has six home games, five road assignments and a neutral-field showdown vs. Texas Tech at Jerry World in Arlington. The Bears are on a short week for a Friday game at TCU to close their regular season. They play at Kansas the week before facing the Red Raiders, but that’s the only time Baylor will travel on consecutive weekends.
ATS Note: Since 2011, Baylor has struggled to a 4-12-1 spread record as a road favorite. With that said, the Bears have thrived in the home ‘chalk’ role, going 29-15 ATS since 2007.
West Virginia: WVU opens in Landover, MY., against Virginia Tech. Then Dana Holgorsen’s club has home games against East Carolina and Delaware State. After playing at Kansas in its Big 12 opener, the Mountaineers have a bye week before going to TCU. However, that’s a wash with the Horned Frogs also off on Sept. 30. WVU won’t have to be at the airport on consecutive Fridays all year. Also, every game will take place on Saturday.
ATS Note: Since 2012, the Mountaineers have limped to a 25-39 ATS record.
Texas Tech: Texas Tech opens up against FCS power Eastern Washington. Then Kliff Kingsbury’s team has two weeks to prep for a home game against Arizona State. The Sun Devils won a 68-55 decision over the Red Raiders in Tempe last year. After hosting ASU, Texas Tech plays at Houston. Next, Big 12 play starts with a home game against Oklahoma State that precedes the only set of back-to-back road assignments at Kansas and at WVU. As previously noted, Texas Tech is on a short week when it closes the regular season on a Friday at Texas.
ATS Note: Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite. In addition, the Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine outings as road underdogs.
Iowa State: Iowa State’s non-conference slate looks like this: vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Iowa and at Akron. The Panthers have won outright twice in its last three games in Ames, including a 25-20 win last year. No. Iowa also won 28-20 at ISU in 2013 and both of these recent upsets came as a 9.5-point road underdog. The Cyclones have lost two straight to the Hawkeyes, including a 42-3 defeat in Iowa City last season. Matt Campbell’s team gets a bye in Week 4 before hosting Texas on a Thursday night but, as mentioned above, the Longhorns share the same open date. The only set of back-to-back road games closes ISU’s regular season: at Baylor and at Kansas State
ATS Note: The Cyclones went 5-1 ATS in their last six home games of 2016.
Kansas: KU’s non-conference games are vs. SE Missouri, Central Michigan and at Ohio. KU opened with SE Missouri in 2014 and won 34-28 but failed to cover as a 25-point home favorite. The Bobcats went into Lawrence and won by a 37-21 count last season. The Jayhawks return home in Week 4 for their Big 12 opener vs. West Virginia. Next, they get two weeks to prepare for a home game against Texas Tech. In Weeks 7 and 8, David Beaty’s squad plays at Iowa State and at TCU. None of KU’s 12 foes have an open date before facing the Jayhawks.
ATS Note: Kansas covered the spread in four straight games to close the 2016 regular season. The Jayhawks went 3-0-1 ATS as home underdogs last year.