Big dogs actually hurt books
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
What a beautiful mess we have in college football’s BCS system with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Oregon all falling as giant favorites last week. For everyone who wants a playoff system, we can get a little taste of it Friday when No. 3 Arkansas (10-1) travels to Baton Rouge to play No. 1 LSU (11-0) in somewhat of a wild card match.
LSU is a 13½-point favorite for this game which says a little something about Arkansas’ status as really being a true No. 3 team, but we’ll take it. The top 3 teams in the country could have a little we-beat-them and they-beat-us thing going on among themselves should Arkansas actually win the game. Alabama’s only loss came to LSU in the unofficial “Game of the Year” and Arkansas’ only loss came to Alabama. Should LSU lose, this thing could really get messy.
It’s hard to gauge how far LSU would fall with a loss, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them fall only to No. 2 because they have such a huge edge in the current rating over Arkansas (1.000 to 0.898). And what if Alabama loses as a 21-point road favorite to Auburn on Saturday? How far will the Tide fall?
This would really be interesting if all three of these SEC teams weren’t in the same division so we could get another playoff layer in the SEC championship, but they aren’t. They all come from the West and one of them will play Georgia for the SEC title on Dec. 3, a day before the BCS pairings come out.
The most surprising part of the entire BCS equation that unfolded last week was Oklahoma State not being penalized as much as one would think about after a bad loss like they had Friday night. Despite losing as a 27-point road favorite to Iowa State, the Cowboys only dropped from second to fourth in the BCS poll. Should they “Cowboy Up” and beat the Sooners next week, they might get enough support to jump into the SEC party should LSU lose either this week or next week against Georgia in the finale.
While it’s not really a playoff, it will have to do. True, if we had a playoff, none of these so-called “GOYs” would matter. But a problem with not having one is that the SEC can remain where they are based somewhat on reputation without having to prove themselves outside of the conference. By doing so, they can take their chances in the title game against whoever it is, but they’re always going to get that opportunity.
We saw LSU beat Oregon to kick off the season, which was impressive, but we haven’t seen Alabama go out on a limb because they don’t have to. If they stay in their own little world, they can schedule teams like Georgia Southern as tune-ups for Auburn, and not be in harm’s way and let the poll machine take care of the rest.
As much as I’d love to see Stanford, Boise State or even Houston get a crack at it in a playoff against the heavyweights, it won’t happen anytime soon, so I’ll just enjoy my three-team playoff system beginning this week. Still, I’ll be rooting for the most possible jumbled BCS mess, so Woo Pig Sooie and War Eagle!
Buckeyes-Wolverines
While other games may have more meaning in regards to the BCS equation, no game means more than Ohio State-Michigan. I know, I’ve been watching ESPN reruns of Roll Tide-War Eagle the last month too, but nothing tops Ohio State-Michigan, especially now with roles revered.
Michigan has lost seven matches in a row to Ohio State, but there is no more Jim Tressel or cocky Buckeye swagger. It‘s hard to roll with swagger when your 6-5, 3-4 in conference play, and just came off a loss at home to one of the worst scoring teams, Penn State, in the Big 10 who were emotionally mired in a scandal.
Even the jokes between the two schools are great.
Why doesn’t Ohio slide off into the Ohio River? Answer: Because Michigan SUCKS!
Or how about what a Buckeye really is? Answer: A nut that always cracks under pressure.
However, the pressure in Saturday’s game is actually on Michigan now because it’s a 7½-point favorite and expected to win. There’s no one in the Michigan locker room that knows what it’s like to beat Ohio State, and yet that’s what the players have had as an underlying goal from the time they signed to play for Michigan.
Michigan is by far the better team, but I have a feeling that whatever Buckeye pride is still alive within each OSU player will come out fighting to keep their streak alive as salvation to their own tumultuous, scandal ridden season.
Sports Book Fare Well
With all the big upsets last week, you’d think the sports books cleaned up, but they didn’t. It was a marginal win for the books in last weekend’s college football games despite the favorites going only 20-37 against the spread with 18 of the underdogs winning outright.
The public was correct on the side of quite a few underdogs and did well on the money line with them tied into straight bets and parlays. Kansas State (+9) was a popular choice at Texas and won. USC (+15) knocked off Oregon on the road and Baylor (+15½) stunned Oklahoma at home. Also, California (+17½) played Stanford tough, but lost 31-28. It was a like a bizarro world for bookmakers because the public rarely jumps on the underdogs, but for some reason, they saw clearly this week.