2010 BIG TEN Preview
by Marc Lawrence
When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State. The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.
The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.
The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.
And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)
INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)
IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)
MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)
MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)
MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)
NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)
OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)
PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)
PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)
WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more
Predicting the Big Ten
By Judd Hall
The Big Ten has been the laughingstock of college football when it comes to games under the spotlight. The league came back with a 4-3 mark in bowl games last season with the losses coming by a combined 14 points. This is the last year of the Big Ten as we’ve known it for the last 17 years with Nebraska joining in 2011. So what can we expect from this group this season? Here are my always fearless predictions for the Big Ten in 2010.
1: Ohio State – Gee, who didn’t see this one coming? But you can’t discount what the Buckeyes have going for them this year. Ohio State is bringing back 10 starters from an offense that was averaging 413 yards and 30 points over its final six games of 2009. For the Bucks to live up to their hype this year, they’ll need Terrelle Pryor to live up to his sophomore finish. Pryor threw eight touchdowns to three picks to close out last year, highlighted by the 62.2 completion rate against Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The early test at home against the Hurricanes on Sept. 11 will give him some early Heisman clout. OSU’s schedule sets up nicely after that with sleepers against Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Illinois and Indiana before going to Madison to face the Badgers. You can’t forget about the trip to Iowa on Nov. 20 since that could determine who wins the league. Any slipups will no doubt will cost Tressel a fourth trip to the BCS Title Game.
2: Iowa – The Hawkeyes were able to pick up a solid Orange Bowl victory last season in spite of having an offense that was 10th in the Big Ten in scoring, rushing and total offense. And they could have easily found themselves in Pasadena had Ricky Stanzi not went down at the end of the regular season. Stanzi is back at full strength with a deep platoon of running backs with Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher. That doesn’t even include an Iowa defense that returns eight starters from a crew that is third nationally in pass efficiency, third in the Big Ten in scoring and total offense allowed. The Hawks look like they should be at least 9-3, but don’t be shocked if they end up with an 11-1 mark before they go bowling.
3: Wisconsin – Wisky didn’t have an impressive 2009 campaign with the quality of its wins. But we can’t discount the victory over the ‘Canes in the Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers have 10 starters returning on offense this year, including Heisman Trophy candidate John Clay. All he did last year was rack up almost 1,400 rushing yards. Odds are good he can repeat that feat this year with all of his blockers returning. Wisconsin’s defense was iffy against the pass last season, which caused them to lose three games last year. They’ll be taking those same teams on this year (Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern), which will still have potent aerial assaults. Look for the kids from Madison to pull up to a 9-3 mark and a decent bowl berth somewhere in the Sunshine State.
4: Penn State – The Nittany Lions have been one of the most consistent programs in the league over the last two seasons with matching 11-2 marks. On the outside, Penn State should put up comparable numbers with eight starters returning on defense and seven on offense. But they struggle when bringing a new quarterback into the mix. That is the case this season as they don’t know if Kevin Newsome or Matt McGloin. Hell, they just might “Wildcat” the hell out of the offense and give Evan Royster the ball on every snap. Another issue for JoePa’s team is they have road tests at Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State. All appear to be certain defeats and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them stumble to a 7-5 mark in Paterno’s 45th year in State College.
5: Northwestern – Normally you’d expect the Wildcats to be in a heavy rebuilding stage after going to a New Year’s Day bowl game. But Northwestern has a new quarterback in Dan Persa that the coaching staff is in love with to replace Mike Kafka. Persa will have a veteran o-line in front of him with three returning starters and two sophomores that have logged quality playing time. Plus, the schedule opens up for the ‘Cats to possibly reel off six or more wins to start off the season. They do have rough road tests against the Nittany Lions and Badgers, which are not easy places to play. Yet Northwestern has the goods to go 7-5 and maybe even all the way up to a 10-2 mark if they get a few lucky breaks.
6: Michigan State – Last year finished about as bad as could be reasonably imagined for the Spartans. Now they can get back to the business of winning, instead of watching the police blotter. Kirk Cousins has control of the QB job and has a potential playmaker target in his backup Keith Nichol. The offensive line is a problem with just two starters returning to the trenches. Pass defense will no doubt be an issue still for the Spartans this year with a rebuilt secondary that ranked 112th nationally in 2009. Their schedule isn’t terribly daunting. However, Michigan State’s last three road tests against the Wildcats, Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions push them into 7-5 territory.
7: Michigan – This might as well be Rich Rodriguez’s make-or-break year with the Wolverines after two horrid seasons. The QB situation appears to have Tate Forcier firmly planted as the top signal caller, but Denard Robinson will get a lot of snaps as well. They’ll need both of them to flourish with a running back situation that only consists of sophomore Mike Cox. A 6-6 record appears to be on the horizon with road tests against Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State. If RichRod can hit .500 this season, that will save his job for at least one more year.
8: Purdue – Things didn’t start off great for Danny Hope in his first year running the Boilermakers. There is a silver lining in the dark cloud of a 5-7 campaign after upsetting Ohio State in West Lafayette. This year he’ll be going into the season with a brand new starting QB in Robert Marve. The former Hurricane disappointed many during his time in South Florida. But he has shown some promise during spring practice and will no doubt enjoy the lack of pressure. What hurts Purdue most this year is losing Ralph Bolden after an All-Big Ten second-team honor in 2009. Defense is another problem as the Boilers were giving up 29.1 PPG last season. And that won’t improve this year with a brand new set of safeties and quarterbacks. Look for another 5-7 campaign for the Black and Gold.
9: Minnesota – Things have looked up for the Golden Gophers the last two seasons under Tim Brewster with back-to-back Insight.com Bowl berths. This year will find Minnesota crashing back down to Earth. The Gophers are returning just two starters to their defense, while the offense brings back nine. One of the missing options for Minny on the attack is wideout Eric Decker, who accounted for almost one-third of the receiving yards. And that doesn’t take into account that Adam Weber threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13) in ’09. Pouring more salt into the wound is the fact that the Golden Gophers are hit by practically every big team available as they face Southern California, Wisky, Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. They should consider themselves lucky if they finish 4-8.
10: Indiana – There were flashes of what could be a great team in Bloomington last season. The Hoosiers held big leads over Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin. All three games ended in aching defeats by three points. Setbacks like that come back on bad coaching decisions, which means it’s Bill Lynch’s fault. Indiana does have eight starters back on the assault, including Ben Chappell, who could be a breakout star. But a shoddy defense and bad moves by Lynch mean this team will finish 4-8 or worse.
11: Illinois – There was a time that Ron Zook actually had fielded a decent team in Champaign. I only know this because you see occasional video of the Fighting Illini getting ripped by USC on ESPN and some bums around town are wearing the “Rose Bowl Champ” shirts that they never got to don in Pasadena. Things won’t be great this year with Juice Williams thankfully running out of eligibility. That means redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase will be running a brand new offense under former Arkansas O.C. Paul Petrino. The Illini’s defense could be a bright spot with six of their top seven tacklers back this season. But don’t be shocked if they become a fascinating train wreck. The conference schedule is front loaded with the Bucks and Nittany Lions, which doesn’t take in battles with Northwestern and Fresno State. Decent showings there would be nice, but don’t expect better than a 3-9 effort.
vegasinsider.com
Buckeyes the team to beat in Big Ten
By: Steve Makinen
The Big Ten Conference is being projected as a three-horse race for 2010, as Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all receiving high praise in preseason polls, including that of StatFox. The season figures to be a coming out party for Buckeyes’ QB Terrelle Pryor, the most highly-sought recruit of the 2008 class who will now be a junior. Pryor had an incredible game in Ohio State’s Rose Bowl win over Oregon this past January and is expected to pick up where he left off. He isn’t the only star from the three frontrunners though, as Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn is a defensive beast and Wisconsin’s John Clay can run roughshod over opposing defenses. Of the three teams, Iowa has the most favorable schedule, hosting the other two. Beyond the top three, Penn State is usually tough, but this could be a rebuilding season by Nittany Lion standards. Michigan State should score a lot of points, as could Purdue and Indiana, a pair of darkhorses. Many eyes will be on Ann Arbor, where plenty of pressure is on coach Rich Rodriguez to pull the storied Michigan program out of one of its worst football droughts ever. He’s not the only coach on the hot seat though, as Ron Zook could be in search of a new home if pessimistic expectations are realized in Champaign. If you’re wondering why we forgot about Northwestern and Minnesota now, it might be even easier to do so to come September.
2010 Predicted Finish (Sportsbook.com Odds to win conference)
1. Ohio State (-250)
2. Iowa (+350)
3. Wisconsin (+350)
4. Michigan State (+1200)
5. Penn State (+650)
6. Purdue (+2000)
7. Michigan (+1200)
8. Indiana (+3000)
9. Northwestern (+2000)
10. Minnesota (+3000)
11. Illinois (+2000)
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 6th year (21-39 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 3-8-1 ATS
Offense: Pro Style - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.0 (#89 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.8 (#81 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - vs. Missouri (St Louis, MO)
9/11 - S ILLINOIS
9/18 - N ILLINOIS
10/2 - OHIO ST
10/9 - at Penn St
10/16 - at Michigan St
10/23 - INDIANA
10/30 - PURDUE
11/6 - at Michigan
11/13 - MINNESOTA
11/20 - at Northwestern
12/3 - at Fresno St
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 3-8, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 7-11 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 7-8 (47%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 36.58 (52)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.2 (81) - 30.2 (96)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 393.5 (47) - 403.3 (92)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.70 (52) - 5.97 (95)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.84 (17) - 4.23 (78)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.00 (71) - 8.01 (102)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (83)
2010 OUTLOOK
Illinois head coach Ron Zook enters the season on a short leash. Win and his critics will back off. Lose and he’ll lose his job. Following a surprise trip to Pasadena in 2007, the Fighting Illini have won a total of eight games since. Despite going 3-9 last year, Zook maintained his job, but his staff underwent more shakeup than a Shakira video as the Illini have six new coaches, including offensive coordinator (Paul Petrino) and defensive coordinator (Vic Koenning)…Petrino must replace Illinois’ most experienced quarterback (Juice Williams), its game-changing wideout (Arrelious Benn) and its best offensive lineman (Jon Asamoah). Redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase takes over at quarterback. Scheelhaase is nearly as green as Al Gore, but the Illini coaches like his elusiveness and leadership skills. Expect Zook to rely on the running game though only two starting linemen are back. Running backs Mikel Leshoure and Jason Ford, both battering ram-types, combined for 1,322 yards, nine touchdowns and 6.4 yards per carry…Koenning introduced a new defensive scheme that features a new “bandit” position, an outside linebacker/end hybrid spot and Michael Buchanan is expected be man that key spot. Koenning has playmakers aplenty in the middle of his defense, but there is a gaping hole at safety, because Garrett Edwards didn’t return for his final year of eligibility…The Illini needs to go bowling, after a two-year hiatus, to save Zook’s hide. The defense and running game should be strengths, but Scheelhaase will hold the key to the season. If Scheelhaase blossoms early, then a second-tier bowl is possible. If not, Zook will be shopping for a new job.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as favorites. The Average Score was ILLINOIS 23.4, OPPONENT 26.9
INDIANA HOOSIERS
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 4th year (14-23 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 7-4 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.0 (#89 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.0 (#87 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#89 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - TOWSON
9/18 - at W Kentucky
9/25 - AKRON
10/2 - MICHIGAN
10/9 - at Ohio St
10/16 - ARKANSAS ST
10/23 - at Illinois
10/30 - NORTHWESTERN
11/6 - IOWA
11/13 - at Wisconsin
11/20 - vs. Penn St (Landover, MD)
11/27 - at Purdue
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 7-9 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 5-3 (63%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-4, 12-14 (46%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35.17 (58)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.5 (84) - 29.5 (91)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 365.0 (72) - 401.0 (88)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.41 (69) - 5.76 (83)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.81 (77) - 4.03 (69)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.76 (84) - 8.02 (104)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (19)
2010 OUTLOOK
After implementing a “Pistol” offense last year, embattled Indiana head coach Bill Lynch focused on installing a new 3-4 defensive scheme in spring ball. Coaches believe that it better suits their personnel—big tackles, like Adam Replogle, who are athletic and versatile. Color us skeptical that the new scheme will work as defensive woes have doomed the Hoosiers for the last decade, as they finished no better than 71st nationally in total defense since 2000…The Hoosiers had the Big Ten’s No. 3 passer in quarterback Ben Chappell and two of the league’s top six receivers in Tandon Doss and Damarlo Belcher. They also had a running back in Darius Willis with breakaway ability, but Indiana still finished 10th in the league in red-zone offense. All four are back, and Indiana has more than enough weapons to be better in the red zone. Chappell established himself as a quality Big Ten quarterback with 2,941 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s got all-league potential if he can cut down on his 15 interceptions…Despite a veteran-laden unit, Indiana ranked 10th in the Big Ten in points allowed (29.5 points per game) and total yards allowed (401.0 yards per game). The Hoosiers lost seven starters on defense, which may or may not be a negative when considering the scheme change and past performance…Indiana’s first six games will tell the story of the season. Five of those should be considered winnable games. If the Hoosiers get off to a 5-1 or 4-2 start, they should be in good shape to return to a bowl. If not, then Lynch could be a goner.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* INDIANA is on a 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) run as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was INDIANA 28.6, OPPONENT 16.7
IOWA HAWKEYES
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 12th year (81-55 SU)
2009 Record: 11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.8 (#32 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +11.7 (#19 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - E ILLINOIS
9/11 - IOWA ST
9/18 - at Arizona
9/25 - BALL ST
10/2 - PENN ST
10/16 - at Michigan
10/23 - WISCONSIN
10/30 - MICHIGAN ST
11/6 - at Indiana
11/13 - at Northwestern
11/20 - OHIO ST
11/27 - at Minnesota
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 11-2, 26-12 (68%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 22-14 (61%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-0, 14-4 (78%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-4, 11-11 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-0, 12-3 (80%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 36.62 (51)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.2 (86) - 15.4 (8)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 336.3 (89) - 276.5 (10)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.17 (85) - 4.26 (9)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.27 (106) - 3.49 (28)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.36 (48) - 5.19 (3)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)
2010 OUTLOOK
With 14 starters back from last year’s 11-win Orange Bowl champion, Iowa has all the ingredients necessary to be a top 10 fixture in the national polls and really push Ohio State for Big Ten supremacy. The Hawkeyes feature a star-studded defense (led by All-American end Adrian Clayborn), a veteran quarterback (Ricky Stanzi), a deep stable of running backs and a very good head coach in Kirk Ferentz…Stanzi is a proven winner (he’s 18-4 as the starting quarterback), but decision making has been an issue. He’ll need to significantly cut down on his 15 interceptions in order for the Hawkeyes to stay near the top of both the national and the Big Ten charts. He has two of the Big Ten’s best wideouts to play catch with and the rest of the skill position cupboard is well-stocked too. However, the Hawkeyes must replace four starting linemen, including left tackle Bryan Bulaga, an NFL first-rounder…Iowa must replace two first first-team All-Big Ten players but the defense won’t lack star power. This figures to be one of the most feared units in the land as eight starters return. Last year’s group allowed just 15.4 PPG, including 14 to powerful Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl win…Iowa has few obvious weaknesses and a pretty favorable schedule. Its toughest non-conference game is a Sept. 18 trip to Arizona and it plays all three of the other expected Big Ten heavyweights—Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State—at home. In short, it looks like another January bowl berth for Ferentz and Co.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, IOWA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) on the road. The Average Score was IOWA 27.8, OPPONENT 12.5
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 3rd year (8-16 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Offense: Spread Option - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 8
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +2.0 (#59 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -1.0 (#72 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - CONNECTICUT
9/11 - at Notre Dame
9/18 - MASSACHUSETTS
9/25 - BOWLING GREEN
10/2 - at Indiana
10/9 - MICHIGAN ST
10/16 - IOWA
10/30 - at Penn St
11/6 - ILLINOIS
11/13 - at Purdue
11/20 - WISCONSIN
11/27 - at Ohio St
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 13-22 (37%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 8-13 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-3, 5-9 (36%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-7, 8-16 (33%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 7-13 (35%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 6-9 (40%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35.08 (59)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.5 (41) - 27.5 (77)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 384.5 (59) - 393.3 (82)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.61 (59) - 5.63 (76)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.52 (40) - 4.35 (85)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.23 (55) - 7.30 (75)
Turnover Differential: -1 (115)
2010 OUTLOOK
It’s a make-or-break season for Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez, who led the nation in votes of confidence from an athletic director. “Richie Rod” needs to get a bowl—any bowl—to quiet his growing legion of critics who are tired of the losing and the NCAA investigations into him at both West Virginia (his previous stop) and Michigan…The pivotal season for the Maize and Blue could come down to Denard Robinson and an improved line. If Robinson builds off a strong spring, and wins the starting quarterback job over Tate Forcier, then Rodriguez will have the run-pass threat—a la Pat White at West Virginia—needed to run his spread option attack. Regardless, the Wolverines need a more reliable ground attack and seem to have a deep enough stable of backs. In the trenches, senior left guard Stephen Schilling (6-5, 303) will lead an extremely young, but gifted line…Greg Robinson, a successful coordinator at the college and NFL levels, has work to do as the Wolverines allowed the second-most points in school history last season. Adding to Robinson’s anxiety is the fact that one-man wrecking crew Brandon Graham (10.5 sacks, 26 tackles for loss) is now cashing large first-round paychecks from the Philadelphia Eagles. Robinson will rely on the return of eight experienced starting defenders for improvement…No college head coach is on a hotter seat than Rodriguez. Whether he can win enough to save his job will be one of college football’s most-followed stories. It won’t be easy as the Maize and Blue enter the season with an unsettled quarterback competition, a shaky kicking game and a new defensive scheme.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, MICHIGAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as favorites. The Average Score was MICHIGAN 23.7, OPPONENT 25.3
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio, 4th year (22-17 SU)
2009 Record: 6-7 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.4 (#56 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.7 (#46 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 40 (#54 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - W MICHIGAN
9/11 - vs. Fla Atlantic (Detroit, MI)
9/18 - NOTRE DAME
9/25 - N COLORADO
10/2 - WISCONSIN
10/9 - at Michigan
10/16 - ILLINOIS
10/23 - at Northwestern
10/30 - at Iowa
11/6 - MINNESOTA
11/20 - PURDUE
11/27 - at Penn St
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-7, 22-17 (56%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 18-19 (49%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-12 (40%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 12-15 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-3, 6-4 (60%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 37.54 (44)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.7 (36) - 26.3 (67)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 406.2 (38) - 380.8 (73)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.27 (16) - 5.42 (62)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.25 (61) - 3.40 (24)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.28 (13) - 7.23 (72)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (95)
2010 OUTLOOK
With bowl berths in his first three seasons, head coach Mark Dantonio has stabilized the Michigan State program. Now comes the hard part, cracking the upper echelon of Big Ten teams and earning better party invites than last year’s Alamo Bowl. Dantonio has leaders on both sides of the ball in All-American LB Greg Jones and QB Kirk Cousins, but he must fill holes along the offensive line and secondary to have any hope of threatening the Big Ten’s elite teams… Cousins was just the eighth sophomore in the last 60 years to lead the Spartans in passing and he should be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten Conference, with plenty of good-hands people to throw the ball to. Sophomore tailbacks Larry Caper and Edwin Baker will split carries again. The left side of the line is rock solid with guard Joel Foreman (6-4, 306) and tackle D.J. Young (6-5, 315), but the right side is still unsettled… Jones is the state of Michigan’s biggest hitmaker since Eminem. Last season, Jones finished third in the nation in tackles with 154 and also registered nine sacks. While linebacker is clearly an area of strength, pass defense is a big concern. Michigan State struggled mightily against the pass, ranking last in the Big Ten and 112th nationally (267.6 YPG allowed)…The Spartans will score points and go bowling for a fourth straight year. But there appears to be a few too many questions—i.e. three new starters on the offensive line and uncertainty at safety and placekicker—for Spartans to finish ahead of the Big Ten’s elite teams. Still, with the first half-dozen games in the state of Michigan, a fast start and a fourth-place finish both seem possible.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MICHIGAN ST is 13-2 OVER the total (+10.8 Units) on the road since '07. The Average Score was MICHIGAN ST 31.9, OPPONENT 30.7
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Head Coach: Tim Brewster, 4th year (14-24 SU)
2009 Record: 6-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 3
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -2.8 (#82 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.4 (#64 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#75 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - at Middle Tenn St
9/11 - S DAKOTA
9/18 - USC
9/25 - N ILLINOIS
10/2 - NORTHWESTERN
10/9 - at Wisconsin
10/16 - at Purdue
10/23 - PENN ST
10/30 - OHIO ST
11/6 - at Michigan St
11/13 - at Illinois
11/27 - IOWA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-7, 14-24 (37%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 6-10 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 10-8 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.77 (33)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.9 (100) - 23.8 (51)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 306.5 (110) - 369.2 (63)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.89 (104) - 5.25 (50)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.01 (112) - 3.84 (50)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.99 (72) - 7.05 (56)
Turnover Differential: -0.1 (68)
2010 OUTLOOK
Minnesota made a trip to the Insight Bowl, despite an inconsistent offense. Will things be better in 2010? The offense must adjust to life without wideout Eric Decker, now playing for the Denver Broncos. The defense will sport eight new starters, including an all-new linebacking crew…In Year One A.D. (after Decker), new coordinator Jeff Horton is committed to running the ball much more effectively. Not only a reliable ground attack would take pressure off senior quarterback Adam Weber, but it will also allow the defense to get more rest. Weber knew his job was on the line this spring, and he stepped up and solidified his hold on the No. 1 job. Aside from his miscues, Weber is hurt by the lack of a consistent running attack (the Gophers were last in the Big Ten in rushing yards the past two seasons), which results in him taking a weekly pounding from opposing defenses. The line has some talent… The Gopher defensive coaches have their work cut out as a slew of new starters must be found between now and the season opener. For instance, all three starting linebackers are gone. Plus, Minnesota must replace both of its starting tackles. The linebacking corps has some candidates to fill all the vacancies. Even still, the biggest hole for the defense could be the cornerback spot, as the Gophers must replace Traye Simmons and Marcus Sherels…This team’s two primary shortcomings—the lack of a ground game and inconsistency on defense—killed them at times in 2009 and could so again. This team should score points—even with Decker now playing on Sundays. However, they must do a better job of stopping foes or they’ll finish around .500 again.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MINNESOTA is on a 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) skid as road underdogs of 7.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was MINNESOTA 17.7, OPPONENT 37.5
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, 4th year (27-23 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.5 (#62 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.6 (#77 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#62 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Vanderbilt
9/11 - ILLINOIS ST
9/18 - at Rice
9/25 - C MICHIGAN
10/2 - at Minnesota
10/9 - PURDUE
10/23 - MICHIGAN ST
10/30 - at Indiana
11/6 - at Penn St
11/13 - IOWA
11/20 - ILLINOIS
11/27 - at Wisconsin
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 23-15 (61%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 11-6 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 3-11 (21%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-2, 14-7 (67%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.46 (74)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.9 (71) - 24.5 (55)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 404.4 (40) - 350.5 (47)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.08 (95) - 5.41 (60)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.05 (111) - 3.80 (48)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.02 (70) - 7.17 (69)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (46)
2010 OUTLOOK
Northwestern is in the midst of the most successful stretch in school history and that should continue as 14 starters are back from last year’s eight-win Outback Bowl team. Eight incumbents return for head coach Pat Fitzgerald on offense, but one of the newbies—junior quarterback Dan Persa—has huge cleats to fill as All-Big Ten selection Mike Kafka is now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. The defense returns six starters, but must replace steady safeties Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith…Persa has limited game experience, but established himself as the new man under center in Northwestern’s spread offense with a strong performance in spring drills. At least Persa will operate behind an experienced line that only touts one senior—guard Keegan Grant. All told, the five returning linemen enter the season with 87 combined starts. The skill position players are inexperienced but expected to develop as dynamic threats as they have in recent seasons...With all three starting linebackers back, along with a host of key reserves, that position group could be the strength of the stop unit. The first line of defense isn’t quite as stccked and three-fourths of last year’s starting secondary has departed, making line & safety the biggest defensive items on Fitzgerald’s to-do list...If Fitzgerald can plug the holes in the defense, as well as at tailback and punter, and if Persa can emerge as a real threat under center, then the Wildcats could go to a bowl for a third straight year—something the program has never done before.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, NORTHWESTERN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) on the road after the first month of the season. The Average Score was NORTHWESTERN 22.3, OPPONENT 20.8
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 10th year (94-21 SU)
2009 Record: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +16.5 (#8 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +18.0 (#9 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 56 (#7 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - MARSHALL
9/11 - MIAMI
9/18 - OHIO U
9/25 - E MICHIGAN
10/2 - at Illinois
10/9 - INDIANA
10/16 - at Wisconsin
10/23 - PURDUE
10/30 - at Minnesota
11/13 - PENN ST
11/20 - at Iowa
11/27 - MICHIGAN
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 11-2, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 10-3, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 9-10 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 14-4 (78%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 16-8 (67%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-3, 19-11 (63%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 4-3 (57%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.46 (35)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.0 (49) - 12.5 (5)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 369.0 (68) - 262.3 (5)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.46 (66) - 4.12 (6)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.52 (44) - 2.88 (9)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.14 (61) - 5.35 (5)
Turnover Differential: +1.3 (5)
2010 OUTLOOK
Ohio State enters this campaign as one of the top three teams in the preseason polls. If quarterback Terrelle Pryor can build on his brilliant Rose Bowl performance versus Oregon, then no one would be surprised to see the Buckeyes in the national title game. Pryor won’t have to do it alone. Nine other starters return on offense and head coach Jim Tressel also has All-America candidates at each level of the defense, as usual…Pryor, the most-coveted high school recruit in the Class of 2008, is living up to all the hype finally. His performance in the Buckeyes’ 26-17 Rose Bowl victory was a sign of good things to come and heshould be even better during his junior season, after undergoing arthroscopic surgery in February to repair his right knee, which bothered him throughout last year. The Buckeyes will have an explosive wide receiving corps, plus with tailbacks Dan “Boom” Herron and Brandon Saine, a duo that combined for 1,339 yards and 11 scores, both back, Ohio State should be much more explosive on offense. Herron and Saine will run behind a beefy and talented line…Despite losing defensive stalwarts again to the NFL, Ohio State still figures to field one of the Big Ten’s most feared defenses. Although there is some re-tooling to do—most notably at safety, the stop unit should be downright scary…Led by Pryor and a star-studded defense, the Buckeyes will win a sixth straight Big Ten title. Is yet another BCS title game appearance possible? Yep. Is the program’s first national title since 2002 possible? You bet. If the Buckeyes beat Miami in mid-September, then an undefeated season is possible—given Ohio State’s remarkable talent level.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OHIO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) on the road vs. teams with a winning record since '07. The Average Score was OHIO ST 28.4, OPPONENT 14.6
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 45th year (394-129-3 SU)
2009 Record: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +16.6 (#6 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +14.1 (#12 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 51 (#13 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - YOUNGSTOWN ST
9/11 - at Alabama
9/18 - KENT ST
9/25 - TEMPLE
10/2 - at Iowa
10/9 - ILLINOIS
10/23 - at Minnesota
10/30 - MICHIGAN
11/6 - NORTHWESTERN
11/13 - at Ohio St
11/20 - vs. Indiana (Landover, MD)
11/27 - MICHIGAN ST
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 11-2, 31-8 (79%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 20-17 (54%)
at Home ATS: 2-6, 10-11 (48%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-0, 10-6 (63%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-6, 18-16 (53%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-0, 1-1 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 34.31 (66)
Points Scored - Allowed: 28.8 (52) - 12.2 (3)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 406.9 (37) - 274.5 (9)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.12 (26) - 4.40 (10)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.73 (24) - 2.85 (8)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.77 (32) - 5.99 (17)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (26)
2010 OUTLOOK
At Penn State, Joe Paterno needs six wins to see 400 victories in his Hall of Fame career. He figures to have a terrific ground game, but JoePa loses serious star power from this past season’s 11-win team as four defensive studs are pros now…Quarterback Daryll Clark, a run-pass threat who led the Nittany Lions to a 22-4 mark over the last two seasons, is gone as well, leaving three young pups—Kevin Newsome, Matt McGloin and Paul Jones—to battle for the No. 1 signal-caller spot. The new quarterback, whoever that is, will operate behind a rebuilt line, but will turn and hand the ball often to Royster, one of the best running backs in the college game. Royster needs to rush for 481 more yards to break Curt Warner’s career record of 3,398, and has rushed for 2,405 yards over the last two seasons, an average of 92.5 yards per contest. The Nittany Lions have a pair of tall, sure-handed wide receivers in Derek Moye and Graham Zug…Jared Odrick is now playing on Sundays instead of Saturdays, but the defensive line will be fine as a pair of gifted ends, Jack Crawford and Eric Latimore, return. The school with the moniker “Linebacker U” had one of the best collections of linebackers in the land last year but all three are in the NFL now, meaning new guys will need to step up. The secondary also needs work…If Paterno can find a quarterback and some linebackers, there’s enough talent for Penn State to win nine or 10 games, but it will have to survive three brutal road contests. Paterno will get to 400 career wins, but it appears that the Nittany Lions are at least the fourth-best team in the Big Ten.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* PENN ST is on a 0-16 ATS (-17.6 Units) skid vs. teams giving up 12 or less PPG . The Average Score was PENN ST 16.7, OPPONENT 28.1
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Head Coach: Danny Hope, 2nd year (5-7 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 6-4-2 ATS
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -1.3 (#77 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.6 (#62 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 40 (#54 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at Notre Dame
9/11 - W ILLINOIS
9/18 - BALL ST
9/25 - TOLEDO
10/9 - at Northwestern
10/16 - MINNESOTA
10/23 - at Ohio St
10/30 - at Illinois
11/6 - WISCONSIN
11/13 - MICHIGAN
11/20 - at Michigan St
11/27 - INDIANA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 6-4, 16-15 (52%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 7-8 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-3, 10-10 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 8-8 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-2, 8-7 (53%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.83 (32)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.8 (58) - 29.1 (89)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 391.3 (53) - 376.6 (69)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.61 (58) - 5.35 (54)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.21 (63) - 4.41 (89)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.82 (82) - 6.55 (38)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)
2010 OUTLOOK
Psst…looking for a Big Ten Conference sleeper? Purdue, a team that lost five games by seven points or fewer last year, might be ready for a breakthrough. Talent returns in perhaps the team’s two best players—defensive end Ryan Kerrigan (Big Ten-leading 13 sacks) and wide receiver Keith Smith (Big Ten-leading 91 catches, 1,100 yards). But there are voids for head coach Danny Hope to fill, too. Perhaps the biggest concerns are the secondary (four starters have departed) and tailback (Ralph Bolden tore an ACL in his right knee and is likely lost for the season)…The most important position on the team, quarterback, will need to be filled for the second consecutive year as Joey Elliott is gone. But never fear, Miami transfer Robert Marve is here. Marve should be one of the Big Ten’s top newcomers—thanks to his mobility and arm strength. Marve has a future pro to play catch with in Smith, who might catch 110 balls this season. The big skill-position question for the Boilers is running back, and the line will be showcasing three new starters…He doesn’t get a fraction of the ink that Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn garners, but Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan is a big-time star. Kerrigan is the headliner, but there are other proven stars in a front seven that returns all but one starter. Purdue must replace all four starters in the secondary...The opener at Notre Dame will be tough—the Irish usually find a way to win those—but the next three games are must-wins if Purdue intends to make it to a bowl game for the first time since 2007.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* PURDUE is on a 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) run at home vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) . The Average Score was PURDUE 37.5, OPPONENT 18.6
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 5th year (38-14 SU)
2009 Record: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +10.0 (#23 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.3 (#24 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - at UNLV
9/11 - SAN JOSE ST
9/18 - ARIZONA ST
9/25 - AUSTIN PEAY
10/2 - at Michigan St
10/9 - MINNESOTA
10/16 - OHIO ST
10/23 - at Iowa
11/6 - at Purdue
11/13 - INDIANA
11/20 - at Michigan
11/27 - NORTHWESTERN
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-3, 26-13 (67%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 16-21 (43%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 10-9 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 6-12 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 9-15 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 10-12 (45%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 5-9 (36%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 34.38 (64)
Points Scored - Allowed: 31.8 (25) - 21.8 (33)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 416.9 (31) - 305.7 (17)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.88 (41) - 5.08 (37)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.56 (36) - 2.89 (10)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.15 (17) - 7.34 (77)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (46)
2010 OUTLOOK
Running back John Clay, who led the Big Ten in rushing with 1,517 yards, sat out spring ball while recovering from two offseason ankle surgeries. He doesn’t need the practice. He’ll combine with returning quarterback Scott Tolzien (2,705 passing yards) to give the Badgers a very good offense. Six starters on offense and five on defense return for a Wisconsin team that figures to be a top 15 fixture all season long…Tolzien showed up to Wisconsin in 2006 as your average, unassuming, within-the-offense Badger quarterback who proves the rating service wrong by winning tons of games. Tolzien excelled at sucking in linebackers with play action to All-Big Ten thumper Clay and pulling to find open receivers and tight ends open between the linebackers and safeties. Clay is a human sledgehammer who eventually wears down opposing defenses and he will operate behind a mammoth line that averages over 300 pounds each. Nick Toon, the son of former Wisconsin and New York Jets star Al Toon, will blossom into a star in his own right…Head coach Brett Bielema appears to have the pieces to survive key losses on defense. Remember the names of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Louis Nzegwu, as well as LB Chris Borland. Senior Niles Brinkley is poised for a big year at cornerback. In all five starters return… Yet again, much is expected of the Badgers—and that’s when the program has struggled in recent years. But this year figures to be different. Tough-to-tackle Clay (18 touchdowns) and the vastly improved Tolzien are just two of several returning starters from an offense that figures to score points galore in Big Ten play.
STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* WISCONSIN is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) vs. good defensive teams - allowing <=310 YPG since '07. The Average Score was WISCONSIN 16.3, OPPONENT 31.7