Big XII Let Downs
By Judd Hall
Last Saturday was one of those days in college football that we got the chance to see the race for the national championship possibly get thinned out a little bit. And thinned out it did get as the Tigers and Spartans were unceremoniously dumped by Nebraska and Iowa. We also got to see the Ducks just show how much firepower they have a in a big win at Southern Cal.
The plus side for the gambling public is those outcomes can help us fatten our wallets this weekend. While I want to believe that the Ducks have a chance to get a scare from Washington (especially after the beatdown they got from the Cardinal), it’s just not going to happen there. Same goes for Iowa, who is in Bloomington to take on the defensively challenged Hoosiers.
Missouri and Nebraska, however, are both in spots that can potentially be quite profitable for us. Let’s take a look at both of them.
Putting the Tigers down...
Missouri seems like they can get up to the top of the mountain for a little bit, but then just roll back down. The Tigers fell 31-17 last weekend at Nebraska in a battle for the Big XII North crown tiebreaker. Mizzou just couldn’t stop the Cornhuskers from racking up 328 rushing yards, with Roy Helu Jr. accounting for 193 of those yards and three touchdowns. Gary Pinkel’s offense couldn’t do anything to counter with just 57 yards in the opening quarter that led to them punting four times and Blaine Gabbert getting picked off once.
So now the Tigers stay out on the road this week as 4 ½-point favorites against a rebuilding Texas Tech side. According to Sportsbook.com, 97% of the money is on the Missouri to cover the spread.
Gamblers are no doubt looking at Mizzou as they were in 2007. Midway through the season they suffered a 41-31 loss at Oklahoma. The Tigers then went on to close out the regular season with a 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS mark. The first game after that loss to the Sooners was against the Red Raiders, who they beat 41-10 as a 3 ½-point home “chalk.”
Texas Tech might not look like a wise option here since they’ve alternated wins and losses over its last four games. And piling on is the fact that there is a quarterback controversy brewing between Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield. Yet there is reason to back Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders. Tech has gone 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread when posted as a home pup in Big XII play over the last four seasons. Missouri has only played one conference game as a road favorite coming off of a road underdog loss. The Tigers lost that game as 14-point road favorites in 2006 to Iowa State.
Holding down the ‘Huskers…
Like I mentioned earlier, the Cornhuskers just had its way running the ball over Missouri last weekend in Lincoln. That was something they couldn’t do effectively when they hosted Texas a few weeks before.
Nebraska now finds itself in a very similar position as the Longhorns were in not too long ago. Texas dropped the ‘Huskers on the road and were a 21-point home favorite against the Cyclones. I initially thought that Iowa State could keep it close against the ‘Horns, but figured that was just crazy talk after a while. Turns out that the Cyclones could not only keep it close, they could drop Texas 28-21 in Austin.
The Cornhuskers are now listed as 19-point road favorites against Iowa State. And there is a good chance that the Cyclones are hoping that history will repeat itself in the same season. But there is reason to not back Iowa State in this spot: they’re 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS when posted as a home ‘dog after an ATS loss versus a Big XII foe.
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